Why is the UK the only country not closing schools?

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Original post by Phoenixfeather99

Because this is Boris’s plan to reduce the pressure on elderly social care and those requiring expensive hospital admissions on the NHS.
The UK’s response is an absolute joke. I wouldn’t be surprise if families try and sue the government for the death of their loved ones. I certainly will if their stupidity kills my immune compromised little sister and aunt.

The only good thing is that hopefully if he does f*ck up, we'll get a Labour governemnt in and not a tory one. Starting to be glad labour didn't get in so they didn't have to occupy their time with this. And to think Boris said 2020 would be a "fantastic year" for the UK. Idiot.

Reply 21

MR freshman 2017

Im all for keep calm and carry on but closing schools should have happened already by now. Maybe they could make some compromise and close schools for a couple of months and then reopen them on GCSE AND A level exam days

Reply 22

username1799249

Original post by Ferrograd

In my view - and I'm not a scientist -

I think this is the problem. There is lots of good advice out there but all anyone is hearing are idiots like Piers Morgan and Trump shouting "PANIC!!"

So engage brain cell for one second and let's shut the schools for a month. That means thousands of kids go to live with highly at risk grandparents = deaths. Then there are all those parents who have to leave work to look after kids. They work in the NHS and businesses that would lose money. Then 1 month later, we all go back to school to discover that the virus hasn't gone away and we are back to square one.

Most in the UK are going to get this virus. Fact! So it comes down to the question of how you manage this reality in a way that doesn't stretch rsources to breaking point.

Reply 23

Bio 7

Original post by Ferrograd

It doesn't matter who gets in they're all crap.

Reply 24

username4528716

Original post by ByEeek

Surely ensuring 40 million get the virus is bringing resources to a breaking point, given many will require hospital treatment.

Reply 25

username4551226

Lol you reported my comment after I said that there will be more cases at university next week.

Sorry! Wrong person

Because some people like me have a levels to do and need to go into school to actually be taught.

Reply 28

Anonymousamie

Can someone guess a date for when they’ll close? I have mocks soon (not as important as official exams ik) and I really want to be prepared for the day. Yes, I’ve been revising A LOT, but in terms of calming my nerves and having a good breakfast, etc.

Reply 29

akragas

Original post by EthanolC2_H5_OH

Basically, if they close schools, NHS workers have to take time off work to look after kids, which puts even more strain on the NHS

Or grandparents will take care of the kids, and get infected.

Reply 30

Oxford Mum

Original post by 1st superstar

Agreed

Ditto

Reply 31

Oxford Mum

Original post by akragas

Or grandparents will take care of the kids, and get infected.

This is what the government is saying.

Reply 32

sendnukes

Original post by Scrimbim

From what I have researched, there is absolutely zero evidence suggesting that someone can contract COVID-19 twice. If there is a paper/article written by a credible source somewhat suggesting this then please link it to me. Also I think the government's plan is a lot more sensible than that of France's or Ireland's as suspending schools for a few weeks will only mean children will be back during a potential peak or rise of cases, therefore aiding the spread of the virus. Suspending schools for longer will also put NHS employees out of work as they would have to look after their kids, putting strain on the NHS.

But herd immunity basically means all elderly and young people with complications basically don't make it. Boris said 'we will lose our loved ones' I guess he really meant it huh.

Reply 33

mariachi

Original post by akragas

Or grandparents will take care of the kids, and get infected.

with the approach advocated by Boris, a good proportion of grandparents will die in any case

Reply 34

Lionheartat20

Here is a fully version of my post above, which explains in a little greater detail. Originally posted it on our TSR Doctor Forum, so I'll copy it here as I think it summarises my thoughts clearer than above.

(Original post by Lionheartat20)
The alternative to attempting to wipe this out and stop the spread of disease by aggressive quarantine is to achieve herd immunity. The latter is effectively Boris Johnson's Policy. That will take around 80-95% of the population to build immunity to the illness. For a highly infectious disease, this is closer to the 95% e.g. Measles.

Therefore Boris is saying we'll take the hit and let's get 90% of the country infected and we will then be immune. Albeit spread it out over 3 or 4 months to try to give the NHS some breathing room.
This would be estimating 45-55 million people within the UK to be infected. Resulting in deaths of around 500,000 within the U.K. The legality of accepting deaths to aim for herd immunity is highly questionable in the name of gross negligence manslaughter, which I have seen raised elsewhere already.

I would rather take the Chinese approach (and the rest of the World) and shut down infrastructure / quarantine etc. They'll get a vaccine eventually which gets around the whole herd immunity / re-infection into society problem. Their approach avoids intentionally killing 1% of our population whilst we might get a slightly better GDP U.K. economic figure for our extra deaths.

#Hugely Cynical of UK Approach :wink:

Source confirming that we plan to happily allow most of our population to be infected: https://www.ft.com/content/38a81588-6508-11ea-b3f3-fe4680ea68b5
If the link is restricted, use our favourite search Engine with phrase "UK herd immunity coronavirus" and 3rd option down is FT, which gave me free access to the article in full.

No wonder we aren't bothering with FFP3 masks in A&E. The whole intention is to get the infection.....

Reply 35

Sammylou40

Original post by Deggs_14

Because some people like me have a levels to do and need to go into school to actually be taught.

And that’s all that matters is it?
What about those who have bills to pay and businesses to run?
As long as you’re ok though....

Reply 36

Pharyngotympanic

It's a social experiment.

Reply 37

TheMcSame

Original post by epicnm

Because our government is stupid and led by an even more stupid leader. Boris seems to lack common sense, with the dangerously stupid idea of developing herd immunity, despite reports of victims developing the virus for a second time after catching it. Then again, this is the leader that the majority of Britain voted for...

Original post by Ferrograd

Thing is, I'm w

I thought the whole point of this was to avoid infection. there's been reports as people have mentioned of people getting it twice. surely if this method was more foolproof, other countries woulk be followng it

Original post by Lionheartat20

But if the approach is to solve this through herd immunity, rather than quarantine etc, you are looking at >300,000+ Deaths within the U.K.
You'll solve the re-infection problem after a year or so when a vaccine is finally released.

The problem is that, much like the flu, most cases are relatively mild (I believe that as of this moment, only about 9% of reported cases are actually serious). Is that 300,000 deaths based on diagnosed cases? If so, it could be wildly inaccurate. Those with minor symptoms may simply just write it off as the flu or a cold, only yesterday an official went on TV and claimed that as many as 10,000 people may already be infected and (obviously) be undiagnosed. Not to mention the seriousness could be vastly over-represented since people with mild symptoms probably aren't going to seek medical attention, while those in serious condition generally will.

Reply 38

Lionheartat20

Original post by TheMcSame

Was it not reported that there are currently two strains of this virus going around (L-type and S-type I believe they were classified as)? Are you able to catch it a third time?

Whether this is a good idea or not is yet to be seen, but if there are two strains of the virus going around, it makes total sense that you can catch it a second time. Currently, it's the third time which decides if this idea is good or bad. Though this could potentially go the same way influenza has gone and it could mutate year after year, becoming a seasonal illness.

The problem is that, much like the flu, most cases are relatively mild (I believe that as of this moment, only about 9% of reported cases are actually serious). Is that 300,000 deaths based on diagnosed cases? If so, it could be wildly inaccurate. Those with minor symptoms may simply just write it off as the flu or a cold, only yesterday an official went on TV and claimed that as many as 10,000 people may already be infected and (obviously) be undiagnosed. Not to mention the seriousness could be vastly over-represented since people with mild symptoms probably aren't going to seek medical attention, while those in serious condition generally will.

There is a global mortality rate being calculated - which is varying on a daily basis as more and more cases are reported. The epidemologists do attempt to fully take into account the number of cases whom will not self-present using statistically modelling that is beyond my expertise. The mortality rate was originally thought to be 2%, then raised to around 3% (Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/#who-03-03-20). I am trying to be conservative with a 1% mortality rate which I think is easily justified based on the above.

To physically achieve herd immunity, your population have to become infected. The % population requiring infection does vary depending on how contagious the virus is. Measles is known to be around 95% of the population requiring infection. To achieve herd immunity could take 90% of the popluation to be infected. This means - with a conservative 1% mortality rate - 500,000 deaths. This is why we should not be using Boris Plan but the rest of the World.

The issue why we haven't had plenty more deaths yet in the U.K is because the secondary infections (pneumonia) take a week or so to appear post-diagnosis. Therefore people are being diagnosed with a mild-COVID today; but they will only die in perhaps 10 days. So the mortality rate is still very low here but expect it to start climbing pretty rapidly in two weeks time. A study of these cases found that the median days from first symptom to death were 14 (range 6-41) days. (Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/#days)

We are also running at near capacity in ITU beds before the virus. Similar to Italy, we will then not be able to give the best treatment to everybody as we have only so many ventilators in this country. So the mortality rate of 1% soon becomes 3-5% as we have preventable deaths....