When will coronavirus end?
Obviously it will probably be a yearly thing, but when will this virus end? We surely can't be self isolated forever until a vaccine is made can we?
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I'll just whip out my crystal ball and check!
Original post by MidgetFever
I'll just whip out my crystal ball and check!
Hopefully after this evil cancerous species is wiped out.
Original post by Deggs_14
Hopefully by the summer as it is predicted the virus won’t survive hot weather.
bad prediction.
Ethopia recorded the hottest world temp. today .. 41 degrees .. they also closed all schools,
why?
Because they have confirmed cases.
Original post by Deggs_14
Hopefully by the summer as it is predicted the virus won’t survive hot weather.
Considering its happily multiplying the tropics and down under this claim would seem to be bunk.
Original post by Deggs_14
Hopefully by the summer as it is predicted the virus won’t survive hot weather.
not sure how that'll work as cases are increasing in qatar and it's boiling over there.
Original post by Deggs_14
Hopefully by the summer as it is predicted the virus won’t survive hot weather.
apparently there are doubts as to whether that claim is true anymore after there was a huge spike in southeast Asia.
Original post by Ferrograd
Obviously it will probably be a yearly thing, but when will this virus end? We surely can't be self isolated forever until a vaccine is made can we?
Depends how fast we all catch it!.
Based on current predictive models, if we do nothing it will be over by late July. But in such a circumstance a LOT of people would die due to the NHS being absolutely overwhelmed.
If we do population control measures but still let it spread a bit, it'll be over by early September, but with still a lot of cases.
If we do more significant measures we can probably push it back to winter, which would make the NHS less overwhelmed before then but presents its own challenges clearly.
If we go into strict lockdown and every single person sticks to it then we can probably control the spread but realistically you're waiting for a vaccine before its over, which is at least 18 months away, if not significantly longer, if ever.
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf
(edited 4 years ago)
Original post by nexttime
Depends how fast we all catch it!.
Based on current predictive models, if we do nothing it will be over by late July. But in such a circumstance a LOT of people would die due to the NHS being absolutely overwhelmed.
If we do population control measures but still let it spread a bit, it'll be over by early September, but with still a lot of cases.
If we go into strict lockdown and every single person sticks to it then we can probably control the spread but realistically you're waiting for a vaccine before its over, which is at least 18 months away, if not significantly longer, if ever.
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf
Based on current predictive models, if we do nothing it will be over by late July. But in such a circumstance a LOT of people would die due to the NHS being absolutely overwhelmed.
If we do population control measures but still let it spread a bit, it'll be over by early September, but with still a lot of cases.
If we go into strict lockdown and every single person sticks to it then we can probably control the spread but realistically you're waiting for a vaccine before its over, which is at least 18 months away, if not significantly longer, if ever.
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf
Surely though we can't go into lockdown for that duration of time>
Is the goal to just plain reduce cases or delay its spread until summer? Because as soon as you end social distancing, surely people will just catch it again. Don't they seem to think it will peak in and around May, given the isolation time for the elderly?
Also, that seems like way longer than China and South Korea, where the peak was reached quite a while ago now and few new cases are being reported, with people returning to work. So 2-3 months after the outbreak
(edited 4 years ago)
Original post by Ferrograd
Surely though we can't go into lockdown for that duration of time>
Is the goal to just plain reduce cases or delay its spread until summer? Because as soon as you end social distancing, surely people will just catch it again. Don't they seem to think it will peak in and around May, given the isolation time for the elderly?
Also, that seems like way longer than China and South Korea, where the peak was reached quite a while ago now and few new cases are being reported, with people returning to work. So 2-3 months after the outbreak
Is the goal to just plain reduce cases or delay its spread until summer? Because as soon as you end social distancing, surely people will just catch it again. Don't they seem to think it will peak in and around May, given the isolation time for the elderly?
Also, that seems like way longer than China and South Korea, where the peak was reached quite a while ago now and few new cases are being reported, with people returning to work. So 2-3 months after the outbreak
The current goal is to let it spread but in a controlled way, eliminating the disease by herd immunity.
China and South Korea have been very successful in controlling it. They are still getting new cases though, having to come down hard and quarantining anyone affected. All it takes is one failure to let it spread. They may yet lose control it is not yet over. They are in a tricky spot internationally too - Europe and the US will have this infection for months and months - do they restrict all travel until... well when? What about less developed countries where we don't even know how many cases they have as they have very few tests?
Problem is we in the UK probably have something like 20,000 cases out there now, untested, unknown. Europe will be similar. We simply can't following their model anyway.
Original post by nexttime
herd immunity.
Haven't we stopped pushing that nonsense now?
(edited 4 years ago)
Original post by the beer
Haven't we stopped pushing that nonsence now?
Not to my knowledge. If you've got a government source do link.
Original post by nexttime
Not to my knowledge. If you've got a government source do link.
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/uk/herd-immunity-is-not-our-policy-says-uk-s-health-secretary-1.4203637
I feel that's more a politician trying to spin things.
If they wanted to halt progression, they'd be doing more. Current measures are about still letting the virus spread, but trying to slow it down. To me, that is aiming for herd immunity.
Original post by nexttime
I feel that's more a politician trying to spin things.
If they wanted to halt progression, they'd be doing more. Current measures are about still letting the virus spread, but trying to slow it down. To me, that is aiming for herd immunity.
If they wanted to halt progression, they'd be doing more. Current measures are about still letting the virus spread, but trying to slow it down. To me, that is aiming for herd immunity.
Meh they've stopped pushing the old spin on with the new spin.
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