Warning that 40% of GCSE grades may change

"As many as two in five teacher-assessed GCSE and A-level grades could be moderated downwards this year, Tes understands.

Insiders predict this summer's results will be a shock and fear a backlash because they could look "terrible".

Previous modelling by the FFT Education Datalab found that teacher-assessed GCSE grades were higher than 2019 scores, and that up to a third could be inflated.

Exam board modelling has backed up that level of disparity but insiders say it may well be higher still, with 40 per cent of grades being changed a "likely" outcome.

Insiders stress that despite the overall high number of grade changes, they may not change very much for each individual student.

However, the changes are likely to be bunched around the most common middle-ranking grades – such as 4 and 5 at GCSE – which, for many students, are also the most crucial."

Read the full article here - https://www.tes.com/news/exclusive-warning-40-gcse-grades-may-change

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Reply 1

Cupcakehugs

this is ****ing messed up

Reply 2

flaurie

Volunteer Team

Original post by Cupcakehugs

this is ****ing messed up

They have to make sure that roughly the same proportion of students get the same grades as last year (and the years before) :smile:

Plenty of students don't get their predicted grades each year, and the average teacher predictions were over half a grade higher in most subjects than what was achieved in the 2019 summer exams :smile:

Spoiler

Reply 3

username5243714

Original post by laurawatt

They have to make sure that roughly the same proportion of students get the same grades as last year (and the years before) :smile:

Spoiler

But at least in normal years, there is something you can actually compare between different students (exams).

Reply 4

username5243714

I can see there being a big backlash in August when results come out. I hope Ofqual is prepared for that.

Reply 5

Moonbow

Aw man my English Lang was dreadful anyway as we only did the creative writing paper and didn’t even touch the one I’m actually good at 🤦*♀️ Our school didn’t even teach us the 2nd paper’s content. Wow. WOWWWWWWWW :angry:

Reply 6

username5243714

Original post by Cupcakehugs

this is ****ing messed up

I hope things work out in August, but 40% is a massive proportion of grades. I can see a lot of people getting grades they don't deserve.

Reply 7

username5243714

Original post by Moonbow

I hope you get the grade you deserve :smile:

Reply 8

Cupcakehugs

Original post by Lightning720

I hope things work out in August, but 40% is a massive proportion of grades. I can see a lot of people getting grades they don't deserve.

yh ik hopefully

Reply 9

1st superstar

Original post by Moonbow

Your school sounds bad...

Reply 10

_gcx

Study Forum Helper

Not sure about GCSEs but for A-levels this would sound about right, considering that over half of UCAS predictions turn out to be incorrect. (of course - the predictions this time around will be far more finely tuned, but you see where I'm coming from)

What I don't like is that it's impossible to predict which students would have a bad day in the exam, and it's not exactly fair to mark down candidates on the basis that this would have happened to some people had the exams run. Doesn't exactly give them a fair chance.

The overall stats will still probably look reasonable and in line with other years. (just like IB has, despite the chaos surrounding individual performance)

Reply 11

Moonbow

Original post by 1st superstar

Your school sounds bad...

We didn’t do half the exams we were meant to 🙄 I agree, it’s truly awful!

Reply 12

username5243714

Original post by _gcx

The overall stats will still probably look reasonable and in line with other years. (just like IB has, despite the chaos surrounding individual performance)

I think that is the key part. Overall, the results will look normal, but that won't help prevent unfair results on an individual level. The exam boards aren't going to care who they markdown. That's where the problems will arise.

Reply 13

Moonbow

Original post by Lightning720

I hope you get the grade you deserve :smile:

Aw thanks! I hope I can scrape a six to be fair, silly paper 😅😤
I hope you do too, whenever you might be sitting anything next xx

Reply 14

username5243714

Original post by Moonbow

Aw thanks! I hope I can scrape a six to be fair, silly paper 😅😤
I hope you do too, whenever you might be sitting anything next xx

I'm waiting for A-level results. Thankfully, I picked universities with entry requirements that are lower than my UCAS prediction and Y13 mocks so I should get what I need (prediction and Y13 mocks = A*A*A* , need for uni = AAB).

There's always the Autumn exams if we don't get what we need... after 7 months without a teacher!

Reply 15

_gcx

Study Forum Helper

Original post by Lightning720

Did IB have rankings within each grade? It'd most likely be the ones that ranked relatively low within the grades that are marked down first. (but then you get obvious problems with very small or large cohort sizes) This is probably as fair as it can be.

Luckily - if this sort of thing were ever to happen again in the future, they'd be far better prepared. (more extensive data collected throughout the year and so on)

(edited 3 years ago)

Reply 16

username5243714

Original post by _gcx

I don't think IB had rankings. I do think the rankings might help prevent big grade decreases in large cohorts, but that obviously doesn't help the smaller cohorts.