Does applying to Oxford for deferred entry affect my chances of getting in?

I've been thinking of making a deferred application as I've come across a student exchange programme which I would love to do during a gap year. The issue is that I don't want to make a deferred application if it would make it harder for me to get in; I'd rather go to Oxford than get to do the student exchange, but not go to Oxford. How is a deferred application viewed / would their criteria for me getting in be any different?
Also, I wouldn't know for sure if I had a place on the program until after I found out if I got an offer, so is it worth risking my Oxford application for something I may not even be accepted to? If I didn't get into the student exchange programme I would still do something else, but the programme is my absolute ideal way to spend a gap year, and the only reason I'm considering one.

Not sure if the course or college makes a difference here, but I'm applying for law at Magdalen

Deferring doesn't affect it no! The interviews don't know if you plan to defer or not. And they decided whether or not to give an offer out. You could even mention it in interview if it's relavent to law and say why you want to do the exchange programme especially if it is a part of law you're interested in

Yes it does affect your chances.

You have to be a slightly stronger applicant because you're competing against next year's cohort and, as such, show that you're good enough for any year.

See this advice from Oxford:
"If you apply for deferred entry, making a successful application is seen as slightly more difficult since the college is effectively committing to a decision on your application before they have seen other students applying in the following year. Successful applications for deferred entry will therefore generally be among the strongest of the cohort for their subject."

Source: https://uni-of-oxford.custhelp.com/app/answers/detail/a_id/456/~/can-i-apply-for-deferred-entry?)

You could always apply during your exchange programme, if that's feasible.

Yes it is harder
You have to be one of the better candidates that year (this is because it could be that the following year the cohort are a lot stronger and consequently they want to ensure the best participants are getting a place)

Also regarding post concerning you could mention in interview, from experience of an oxbridge interview they don't tend to really ask much about you and what you are doing to show interest in the subject. They focus more on your method of thinking (this is just a side not though)

Thank you for responding! I had heard that this might be the case but hadn't seen the linked page
Do either of you have an opinion on how an application for 2021 entry might be affected due to lots of people being accepted for 2020 entry? I was just thinking that the colleges must have a limited amount of space, and as they've let in so many people this year that could mean that the number of spaces for 2021 entry is lower to prevent having more people than space for them. If this is the case, would it be easier to get accepted for 2022 entry with a normal number of spaces, even with a deferred application?
My main goal for making a deferred application is just to take part in the exchange programme, not to 'play the system' by applying for a year that seems easier, but if 2021 entry is now harder then that might mean that even the difficulty of my application being a deferred one is no more difficult than it would be this year anyway, so I wouldn't be ruining my chances by making a deferred application.
Or would it be better to just apply for 2021 entry, and if I don't get in, to then do the exchange programme and make an application for 2022 entry, so I avoid the difficulty of making an application this year and also the difficulty of making a deferred application?

Thank you in advance to anyone who replies

It's really hard to predict anything tbh. It's super unclear how many are attending uni this year (home students anyway). I don't know the stats on that.
Colleges do have limited space and numbers (should be able to find them online somehwere). I'd be surprised if this would affect the no they let in next year, I don't think it really will. No, I still don't think (personally) it would be easier to get in for 2022 entry because you have to be at the top of the bunch of the applicants for the academic year you apply.
Do the exchange programme and apply during that year (if its feasible and you could also apply for deferred entry for this coming year as well then), it sounds like you want to do it. Don't ride everything on getting into oxbridge.

My advice is pretty wishy washy with this as there are soooo many unknowns right now. I'd just say do what you want to do. Tbf you have some time to think about it atm

I've been thinking of making a deferred application as I've come across a student exchange programme which I would love to do during a gap year. The issue is that I don't want to make a deferred application if it would make it harder for me to get in; I'd rather go to Oxford than get to do the student exchange, but not go to Oxford. How is a deferred application viewed / would their criteria for me getting in be any different?
Also, I wouldn't know for sure if I had a place on the program until after I found out if I got an offer, so is it worth risking my Oxford application for something I may not even be accepted to? If I didn't get into the student exchange programme I would still do something else, but the programme is my absolute ideal way to spend a gap year, and the only reason I'm considering one.

Not sure if the course or college makes a difference here, but I'm applying for law at Magdalen

Thank you for responding! I had heard that this might be the case but hadn't seen the linked page
Do either of you have an opinion on how an application for 2021 entry might be affected due to lots of people being accepted for 2020 entry? I was just thinking that the colleges must have a limited amount of space, and as they've let in so many people this year that could mean that the number of spaces for 2021 entry is lower to prevent having more people than space for them. If this is the case, would it be easier to get accepted for 2022 entry with a normal number of spaces, even with a deferred application?
My main goal for making a deferred application is just to take part in the exchange programme, not to 'play the system' by applying for a year that seems easier, but if 2021 entry is now harder then that might mean that even the difficulty of my application being a deferred one is no more difficult than it would be this year anyway, so I wouldn't be ruining my chances by making a deferred application.
Or would it be better to just apply for 2021 entry, and if I don't get in, to then do the exchange programme and make an application for 2022 entry, so I avoid the difficulty of making an application this year and also the difficulty of making a deferred application?

Thank you in advance to anyone who replies

I think the short answer is to ask the college.

Covid has upset all the calculations. Colleges are taking extra bodies. Will that be permanent? Once you have crammed folk in one year, there is a tendency to do so the next. Some things will inevitably change permenantly as a result of Covid. I don't think Oxford will go back to how exactly how it was. It will pretend it does as it always has done in the past, but those who knew Oxford before and after will recognise the changes.

Difficult to say.

I believe that some 2020 students are being asked to defer to 2021 due to lack of space following the A-level Ofqual u-turn, but home students is just one side of the equation. Overseas students may be less willing to travel in a global pandemic and from 2021, EU students will be charged overseas tuition fees rather than UK tuition fees which may see a fall in applications.

If you do apply for deferred entry, it may be worth checking if you can apply again next year if unsuccessful.

I'm not sure whether other specific subjects are affected, but there is a strong preference against taking a year out for maths.

Difficult to say.

I believe that some 2020 students are being asked to defer to 2021 due to lack of space following the A-level Ofqual u-turn, but home students is just one side of the equation. Overseas students may be less willing to travel in a global pandemic and from 2021, EU students will be charged overseas tuition fees rather than UK tuition fees which may see a fall in applications.

If you do apply for deferred entry, it may be worth checking if you can apply again next year if unsuccessful.

I'm not sure whether other specific subjects are affected, but there is a strong preference against taking a year out for maths.

That's true. It's swings and roundabouts, and we don't know how Covid will pan out long term.

I think that the "loss" on undergraduate education may reduce and colleges may well be willing to take more students. If the Zoom tutorial becomes a part of the normal Oxford experience, there will be greater flexability in the Oxford academic workforce and that will cut costs. The need for teaching rooms, the cost of travel, covering sabbaticals and maternity cover within a very irregular teaching year drive up the wage bill.

I think that the "loss" on undergraduate education may reduce and colleges may well be willing to take more students. If the Zoom tutorial becomes a part of the normal Oxford experience, there will be greater flexability in the Oxford academic workforce and that will cut costs. The need for teaching rooms, the cost of travel, covering sabbaticals and maternity cover within a very irregular teaching year drive up the wage bill.