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Tories set to make huge gains in Red Wall local elections

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1388407213975343106
:excited:

If we can do this with Mr. Johnson leading the party, just imagine what we could do with a candidate who was actually competent...

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Reply 1

Starship Trooper

Original post by -Imperator-

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1388407213975343106
:excited:

If we can do this with Mr. Johnson leading the party, just imagine what we could do with a candidate who was actually competent...

Such as?

But good news. I look forward to the Keir apologists try and spin this one :biggrin:

Reply 2

nulli tertius

Original post by -Imperator-

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1388407213975343106
:excited:

If we can do this with Mr. Johnson leading the party, just imagine what we could do with a candidate who was actually competent...

Wait until the votes are counted. The tiny majorities in council wards, the local issues in play and the low turnouts make predictions like this, just silly. Boris could easily treble this number of wins or lose an equal number of seats.

Reply 3

-Imperator-

Original post by nulli tertius

True. Still, I think the "voter intention" chart underneath it equally promising.

Reply 4

Contested Claim

90 seats isn't actually huge gains when there are about 5000 seats up for election, although I'm not sure how many of those 5000 are in "red wall" councils.

Reply 5

imlikeahermit

The main issue being that the Conservatives have the centre ground so sewn up that Labour haven’t a clue what to stand for. This of course completely suits me.

Reply 6

Rakas21

Original post by Contested Claim

90 seats isn't actually huge gains when there are about 5000 seats up for election, although I'm not sure how many of those 5000 are in "red wall" councils.

The 2017 map is mostly shire type places though that's the map labour and lib will gain from given how well May did in 2017.

The 2016 map is where most of the red wall seats are and generally much more urban in nature. This is the map that Miliband won about 800 council seats on in 2012.

The reason the poll is notable is not because 90 seats is a lot but because governments should not be making net gains in local elections mid term, let alone 11 years into government.

No opposition has ever come to power without a plurality of local council seats and yet in 2021, 11 years into Tory rule there is every chance that we could extend our existing lead of about 1200 seats.

Reply 7

Starship Trooper

What would a bad night for labour look like and would it be enough to finish Starmer?

Reply 8

Rakas21

Original post by Starship Trooper

What would a bad night for labour look like and would it be enough to finish Starmer?

A bad night for Starmer is anything that is not a net gain.

A horrid night night for Starmer is the Tories making net gains and perhaps more importantly as a headline, losing the Hartlepool by-election.

Starmer would not go on either of these results. He'd need to lose hundreds of seats for that. Miliband only won 200-300 in 2013 and 2014 and Corbyn was basically flat in 2016 and 2018. Neither were threatened and this year probably won't produce much outside those bounds.

(edited 2 years ago)

Reply 9

Contested Claim

Original post by Rakas21

The reason the poll is notable is not because 90 seats is a lot but because governments should not be making net gains in local elections mid term, let alone 11 years into government.

You are right that the government should not be making gains at this point. However this is an unusual situation. Incumbent governments in the developed world have generally seen support increase over the last year as people look to them to guide them thorough the pandemic.

Additionally, the Conservatives are paying the wages of millions of people who would otherwise be unemployed. Of course people are going to vote for a government that is quite literally throwing free money at them. However it is a fiscal recklessness that cannot last.

It will be interesting to see what happens to polls over the next 12 months as these artefacts are removed.

(edited 2 years ago)

Reply 10

Stiff Little Fingers

Original post by Starship Trooper

What would a bad night for labour look like and would it be enough to finish Starmer?

It's not going to finish off Kieth - it'll be "oh long corbyn" (amazing that if you spend 4 years salting the earth because your faction isn't in charge, nothing then grows in that earth). His job isn't to win elections, it's to comprehensively kill off the left option.

Reply 11

TJ1997

I doubt they'll make 'huge' gains, but certainly gains off the back of a brilliant vaccine rollout and leadership that seems to be getting on with the pressing issues.

Although Starmer could be doing far worse, he's turned the elections into a referendum solely on NHS pay and minor Tory sleaze rather than also campaigning on local issues that people in these areas care more about. That it has barely cut through isn't surprising but that's all they have with the public paying more attention to the government than any members of the opposition during the pandemic. Losing Hartlepool and other previously safe council seats would be a blow for Labour though and I think it's plausible to see a shadow cabinet reshuffle in the coming weeks..

(edited 2 years ago)

Reply 12

Rakas21

Much harder to poll small places as the sample has to be just right but we have polling for Hartlepool, West Midlands Mayor and Tees Valley Mayor.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/hartlepool-by-election-poll-labour-conservatives-b1841659.html

(edited 2 years ago)

Reply 13

username5702009

These elections are the same places as 2016. When UKIP were getting a lot of votes, such as in the Senedd and local councils. Most of which will now go to the Tories.

If the Conservatives had chosen a competent leader, there would be more votes they could gain I agree. At least 10,000 more as fewer people would have died from Covid 19.

Reply 14

fallen_acorns

Labour really shouldn't read too much into any of these results.

It's basically a war-time election just when victory looks assured.. obviously the party in charge of that victory is going to get a huge boost.

If anything the pandemic has given Keir the perfect excuse to not perform well. Being perfectly honest, I don't think he is the man to beat Boris under normal circumstances, and without the pandemic, Boris would have still gotten brexit through, cementing a lot of that base, and would have pushed ahead with his very labour-esque spending plans that were all the talk for the brief few months before the pandemic got in the way. I'm not sure Keir would have faired any better, but at least now he can blame it on the pandemic and not have to think about how he would have done under normal circumstances.

Keir is in the right place politically to take on Boris, he just doesn't have the charisma or public ability to go up against him. Keir + Charisma, and that's a labour leader who stands a chance.

Reply 15

imlikeahermit

Laughable that reports surfacing today saying the hard left would attempt a ‘coup’ if Kier bombs tomorrow. It’s like the hard left don’t understand they’re the issue. It’s like the Labour Party just don’t see irony at the moment. Bless him, he’s coming out saying Labour are tough on crime, yet little over a year ago Labour MPs were tweeting #stoptheplane in order to prevent a plane full of criminals, murderers and rapists from leaving the country. It’s absolutely laughable.

Please elect a socialist leader Labour. I’m begging you. Because it would ensure a Conservative government for the next 20 years.

Reply 16

Starship Trooper

Original post by imlikeahermit

Please elect a socialist leader Labour. I’m begging you. Because it would ensure a Conservative government for the next 20 years.

I honestly think they'd have better luck with a proper leftie than Keir or some other centrist technocrat.

A reminder that Corbyn 2017 did better than miliband. At this rate Corbyn 2019 will do better than Keir 2024. At least some people liked Corbyn or knew who he was. Keir is s non entity.

Reply 17

Starship Trooper

Interesting video about the Hartlepool by Election

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=vu7gCBoQMpk

(,Despite being to the right of Enoch Powell I actually quite like Jones's content )

Reply 18

JOSH4598

Original post by imlikeahermit

Labour are so divided it makes Theresa May's administration the image of unity. The party under Starmer is still largely far-Left with the same faces as under Corbyn's "leadership". It's those same faces who seem to deflect blame on the electorate or the media, while failing to realise their far-Left views are what's making Labour unelectable. It's the perfect opposition for the Tories!

Original post by imlikeahermit

Please elect a socialist leader Labour. I’m begging you. Because it would ensure a Conservative government for the next 20 years.

Given it looks like another Conservative victory in 2024 (which takes us to 2029), that's nearly 20 years of Tory rule since 2010! If Labour are still in their current cesspit state by then, it could easily be 25 or 30 years of Tory rule which makes me rather happy.