Hey there! Sign in to join this conversationNew here? Join for free

If the result is Leave, will we leave? Watch

  • View Poll Results: After a Leave result in the Referendum, the UK would...
    End up remaining after a lot of discussion and debate with little real change
    37
    21.02%
    End up remaining but with some meaningful changes
    17
    9.66%
    Leave but only half-heartedly and with little real change
    72
    40.91%
    Leave abruptly and possibly chaotically
    50
    28.41%

    Offline

    5
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by Fullofsurprises)
    Coming next: Cameron says he will take a Leave vote 'under advisement' but in no way be bound by it.
    Still not happening.
    • Thread Starter
    Online

    20
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by Grand High Witch)
    Still not happening.
    Wishful thinking, wishful thinking.
    • Section Leader
    • Clearing and Applications Advisor
    Offline

    21
    ReputationRep:
    Section Leader
    Clearing and Applications Advisor
    (Original post by Fullofsurprises)
    At the risk of sounding like "I told you so", Cameron announces he has no intention of quitting if there's a Leave vote.
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016...ster-regardle/

    Contrary to previous hints by him. :rolleyes:

    Coming next: Cameron says he will take a Leave vote 'under advisement' but in no way be bound by it.
    Hmm... I really can't see him staying even if he wanted to. It would effectively be a vote of no confidence.

    Although it may be moot - the latest odds on Leave are lengthening.

    Name:  Screen Shot 2016-06-18 at 21.19.46.jpg
Views: 70
Size:  107.0 KB
    Offline

    5
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by Fullofsurprises)
    Wishful thinking, wishful thinking.
    On your part? Yes.
    • Political Ambassador
    Online

    21
    ReputationRep:
    Political Ambassador
    (Original post by Fullofsurprises)
    At the risk of sounding like "I told you so", Cameron announces he has no intention of quitting if there's a Leave vote.
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016...ster-regardle/

    Contrary to previous hints by him. :rolleyes:

    Coming next: Cameron says he will take a Leave vote 'under advisement' but in no way be bound by it.
    Not resigning doesn't mean he stays on as leader, especially if he ****s up the first week or two

    Posted from TSR Mobile
    • Community Assistant
    Online

    21
    ReputationRep:
    Community Assistant
    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    There is a distinction that has to be made between officially backing remain and backing remain, especially on the front bench where the difference is clear because the closet remainers never do anything in the referendum. The closest remainers are people who will vote to leave but want to stay on Cameron's good side; the ones openly leave don't give a **** about that and/or are actually relatively principled for an MP.

    Posted from TSR Mobile
    In fairness May for example has displayed loyalty to the executive and its probably being beneficial for her reputation vs Boris who dithered, declared half for out (well technically he declared he wants a second referendum) and spent the first month getting bashed for it.

    I certainly don't consider May more principled than Boris even if i want neither as leader.
    • Community Assistant
    Online

    21
    ReputationRep:
    Community Assistant
    (Original post by jneill)
    Hmm... I really can't see him staying even if he wanted to. It would effectively be a vote of no confidence.

    Although it may be moot - the latest odds on Leave are lengthening.

    Name:  Screen Shot 2016-06-18 at 21.19.46.jpg
Views: 70
Size:  107.0 KB
    I suspect he'd resign Friday morning personally but if he does not then his main card is that there's no unity candidate still standing that the party will rally around (Javid was made to look stupid by steel, Osbourne shafted himself with the budget, Boris made himself look an opportunistic ****). It was pretty wierd but interesting to see Mogg (pretty right wing) very genuinely saying that he wants Cameron to lead us through the exit negotiations (knowing they'll last years) and that really shows that even on the right, some MP's would rather have Cameron stay than an alternative at this time.

    That said as a Tory supporter i'd rather the leadership election happens quickly, it'll be bloody and potentially damaging but it's about the final big thing that can derail them if Corbyn stays leader. Once it passes, the Tories just need the economy to be relatively okay and they have 2020 sown up.
    Offline

    19
    ReputationRep:
    I've said remain would win throughout the campaign but I changed my mind the day before the MP was killed.

    I've changed it back now remain will win there is always some overly emotional idiots who are easily swayed by this sort of stuff just look at the Aylan kurdi situation


    Posted from TSR Mobile
    Offline

    18
    ReputationRep:
    • Thread Starter
    Online

    20
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by Rakas21)
    I suspect he'd resign Friday morning personally but if he does not then his main card is that there's no unity candidate still standing that the party will rally around (Javid was made to look stupid by steel, Osbourne shafted himself with the budget, Boris made himself look an opportunistic ****). It was pretty wierd but interesting to see Mogg (pretty right wing) very genuinely saying that he wants Cameron to lead us through the exit negotiations (knowing they'll last years) and that really shows that even on the right, some MP's would rather have Cameron stay than an alternative at this time.

    That said as a Tory supporter i'd rather the leadership election happens quickly, it'll be bloody and potentially damaging but it's about the final big thing that can derail them if Corbyn stays leader. Once it passes, the Tories just need the economy to be relatively okay and they have 2020 sown up.
    Lots of ifs there, but I think it's most plausible that Cameron will remain PM - there's nothing that can get rid of him if he has the majority of his MPs behind him, which he still will, as Leave is a minority sport even in the Tory Party.

    The point of my thread was that given that Cameron will be staying, its very difficult to imagine a Leave negotiation being anything other than half hearted under his supervision. I suspect instead we would get a few more 'concessions' from the EU and then Dave would take that to a vote in about a year's time, with numerous apologies that we can't actually leave.

    Time will tell.
    • Community Assistant
    Online

    21
    ReputationRep:
    Community Assistant
    (Original post by Fullofsurprises)
    Lots of ifs there, but I think it's most plausible that Cameron will remain PM - there's nothing that can get rid of him if he has the majority of his MPs behind him, which he still will, as Leave is a minority sport even in the Tory Party.

    The point of my thread was that given that Cameron will be staying, its very difficult to imagine a Leave negotiation being anything other than half hearted under his supervision. I suspect instead we would get a few more 'concessions' from the EU and then Dave would take that to a vote in about a year's time, with numerous apologies that we can't actually leave.

    Time will tell.
    I believe that Cameron will follow through and leave, you can say many things about him but he tends to do what he says. That said i agree with you regarding the negotiations however playing devils advocate, that's not a bad thing. Remember that Cameron does not have to please all of the ~52% that vote Leave on Thursday, he just has to please the 30% that vote or are open to voting Tory because unless we get a Nulli scenario in parliament, he'll get the numbers to back a watered down deal.
    Offline

    9
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by Fullofsurprises)
    Lots of ifs there, but I think it's most plausible that Cameron will remain PM - there's nothing that can get rid of him if he has the majority of his MPs behind him, which he still will, as Leave is a minority sport even in the Tory Party.

    The point of my thread was that given that Cameron will be staying, its very difficult to imagine a Leave negotiation being anything other than half hearted under his supervision. I suspect instead we would get a few more 'concessions' from the EU and then Dave would take that to a vote in about a year's time, with numerous apologies that we can't actually leave.

    Time will tell.
    There is a strong argument in voting Leave for precisely this reason. If we do Leave I think we will rejoin eventually under better terms. We are not going to get any real concessons from Brussels without demonstrating our willigness to use the nuclear option
    Offline

    1
    ReputationRep:
    Democracy is in essence a proxy for civil war. If leave wins, but we don't leave there will be more extreme rioting and violence than ever we could have anticipated.

    Voting remain btw :yy:
    • Thread Starter
    Online

    20
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by Fenice)
    There is a strong argument in voting Leave for precisely this reason. If we do Leave I think we will rejoin eventually under better terms. We are not going to get any real concessons from Brussels without demonstrating our willigness to use the nuclear option
    That's been the view of some since the referendum was first mooted. To what extent it works as a strategy is hard to forecast. A lot depends on the things you care about and to what extent it's likely they would change. Also the argument has become something of a moot point given that we're not in the Eurozone and extremely unlikely to join it, essentially that means there are two EUs anyway already with the Eurozone group increasingly uninterested in the views of the non-Euro group.
 
 
 
  • See more of what you like on The Student Room

    You can personalise what you see on TSR. Tell us a little about yourself to get started.

  • Poll
    Brussels sprouts
    Useful resources

    Groups associated with this forum:

    View associated groups
  • See more of what you like on The Student Room

    You can personalise what you see on TSR. Tell us a little about yourself to get started.

  • The Student Room, Get Revising and Marked by Teachers are trading names of The Student Room Group Ltd.

    Register Number: 04666380 (England and Wales), VAT No. 806 8067 22 Registered Office: International House, Queens Road, Brighton, BN1 3XE

    Quick reply
    Reputation gems: You get these gems as you gain rep from other members for making good contributions and giving helpful advice.