The Commons Bar Mk VIII - MHoC Chat Thread Watch

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Rakas21
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#2621
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#2621
(Original post by crayz)
I have an interesting question which bill cut spending by the most and which bill increased spending by the most in MHOC history?
http://www.thestudentroom.co.uk/show....php?t=2614986

Both libertarian bills i believe although to be fair to them they miscalculated the amount of revenue they had to play with and my budget review applied it retrospectively.
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Cryptographic
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#2622
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#2622
Will next year be the first GE where 6 parties will win seats in England?
Conservatives, Labour, Lib Dems, Respect, Greens and UKIP (will focus heavily on 1-5 seats)
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nixonsjellybeans
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#2623
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#2623
Hmm without checking up any stats or anything i'd wager that only the top three will get a seat
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SciFiRory
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#2624
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#2624
(Original post by Cryptographic)
Will next year be the first GE where 6 parties will win seats in England?
Conservatives, Labour, Lib Dems, Respect, Greens and UKIP (will focus heavily on 1-5 seats)
Respect will keep Galloway's seat I expect, Greens in Brighton should be an interesting one, UKIP as you say will only win seats if they focus on certain seats, so it's possible but not certain by any means.
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That Bearded Man
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#2625
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#2625
*for the record, I have been elected as the new Labour Party leader.
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Blue Meltwater
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#2626
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#2626
(Original post by Cryptographic)
Will next year be the first GE where 6 parties will win seats in England?
Conservatives, Labour, Lib Dems, Respect, Greens and UKIP (will focus heavily on 1-5 seats)
It's an interesting one. Galloway may keep his seat, though in a general election there will be less of a protest vote factor than in the by-election. Universal swings would suggest that even a marginal increase in the Labour vote would mean Caroline Lucas will lose her seat - hopefully her local popularity might abate that somewhat, but the disaster that seems to be Brighton's Green council may also go against her. As for UKIP, seat predictors suggest that they'd need as much as around 23% of the vote to even win one seat (which is completely ridiculous), but if they sustain their position in the polls I'd imagine local factors could contribute to them winning a couple of seats, though nothing substantial.

(Original post by That Bearded Man)
*for the record, I have been elected as the new Labour Party leader.
Congrats!
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Rakas21
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#2627
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#2627
On the subject of seats i actually did some analysis when playing around with figures a few weeks ago. It's only my personal thoughts which is why it does not fit exactly with the polls (i don't think the Lib Dems will be below 15% come the general election for one thing - It should be noted that the heads of Youguv and Comres have said the same on the Daily Politics as well despite showing them very low).

Anyhow, provided Scotland stays then the Libs lose 13 seats (12 to Labour). The interesting thing though is that if Ukip cut into the Tory vote enough to generate a swing of even 3% from the Tories to Lib Dems in some seats then the Libs have a chance to take 7 Tory seats.

Ukip (if we exclude the speakers seat as an anomaly last time) have a chance in 6 seats realistically based on the council elections last year. That does include Eastleigh though which i doubt they'll take given that it's a general election and polling for the local election there has the Lib Dems at 40% which coupled with keeping the seat in a by-election suggests to me that the Libs are safe in 2015 so long as they have a decent ground campaign.
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Blue Meltwater
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#2628
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#2628
(Original post by Rakas21)
Anyhow, provided Scotland stays then the Libs lose 13 seats (12 to Labour). The interesting thing though is that if Ukip cut into the Tory vote enough to generate a swing of even 3% from the Tories to Lib Dems in some seats then the Libs have a chance to take 7 Tory seats.
Yes, that's a very interesting phenomena - if you play with this seat prediction tool enough, you notice that a high UKIP vote share generally has little effect but to reduce the amount of seats the Lib Dems lose.
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Birchington
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#2629
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#2629
(Original post by Cryptographic)
Will next year be the first GE where 6 parties will win seats in England?
Conservatives, Labour, Lib Dems, Respect, Greens and UKIP (will focus heavily on 1-5 seats)
It'll be a two horse race between Tories and Labour. Lib Dems will lose a large majority of seats, probably winning about 20 max.

Greens will probably lose Brighton, given the unpopularity and incompetence of the local Green-led council. Caroline Lucas will be fighting Labour to keep her majority.

George Galloway might hold Bradford, but only if Labour seriously ****-up their local campaign. Not sure Respect will win any more seats.

I'll predict 2-3 gains for UKIP, depending on where they stand, their ability to harness disaffected/floating voters and the profile of their candidates. I expect Farage to win, especially if he stands in his home seat in Kent.

Just my own interpretation of predictions!
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barnetlad
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#2630
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#2630
I predict a Monster Raving Loony win
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Cheese_Monster
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#2631
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#2631
(Original post by barnetlad)
I predict a Monster Raving Loony win
The Oxford branch of the MRLP were doing Morris dancing in the town centre yesterday, they let me get involved, was cracking.


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bun
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#2632
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#2632
(Original post by Cheese_Monster)
The Oxford branch of the MRLP were doing Morris dancing in the town centre yesterday, they let me get involved, was cracking.


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They've recovered quickly! Dancing the day after facing accrington
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Cheese_Monster
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#2633
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#2633
(Original post by bun)
They've recovered quickly! Dancing the day after facing accrington
There's definitely a certain solace in knowing you're ****


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Saoirse:3
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#2634
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#2634
(Original post by SciFiRory)
Respect will keep Galloway's seat I expect, Greens in Brighton should be an interesting one, UKIP as you say will only win seats if they focus on certain seats, so it's possible but not certain by any means.
If what I've heard about from a couple of friends in Bradfordis correct Galloway has a uphill task. Not only will he have the disadvantage of a higher turnout compared to his by-election victory, but a campaing has apparently been started called "Where's George?". He has spent most of his time going between Westminster and his native Scotland to campaign for the Union with the 3-cheeks-of-the-same-butt he hates so much with his "Just Say Naw" tour. I expect Labour to reclaim that seat.
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ByronicHero
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#2635
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#2635
(Original post by That Bearded Man)
*for the record, I have been elected as the new Labour Party leader.
Well, at least you have a beard.
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Rakas21
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#2636
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#2636
(Original post by Saoirse:3)
If what I've heard about from a couple of friends in Bradfordis correct Galloway has a uphill task. Not only will he have the disadvantage of a higher turnout compared to his by-election victory, but a campaing has apparently been started called "Where's George?". He has spent most of his time going between Westminster and his native Scotland to campaign for the Union with the 3-cheeks-of-the-same-butt he hates so much with his "Just Say Naw" tour. I expect Labour to reclaim that seat.
It's a good thing the boundary reform never went through, my council ward would be absorbed into his seat.
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SciFiRory
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#2637
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#2637
(Original post by Saoirse:3)
If what I've heard about from a couple of friends in Bradfordis correct Galloway has a uphill task. Not only will he have the disadvantage of a higher turnout compared to his by-election victory, but a campaing has apparently been started called "Where's George?". He has spent most of his time going between Westminster and his native Scotland to campaign for the Union with the 3-cheeks-of-the-same-butt he hates so much with his "Just Say Naw" tour. I expect Labour to reclaim that seat.
really? ah okay, I didn't realise he was as useless as he sounded lol, can't say I will miss him, he is bonkers, makes the Left look a joke with his antics, which is annoying cause if he weren't such an egotistic buffoon he would have good points to make.
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Saoirse:3
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#2638
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#2638
(Original post by SciFiRory)
really? ah okay, I didn't realise he was as useless as he sounded lol, can't say I will miss him, he is bonkers, makes the Left look a joke with his antics, which is annoying cause if he weren't such an egotistic buffoon he would have good points to make.
Agreed. I can say from person experience he was utterly inept when he was my MP (for Bethnal Green and Bow), a million times more interested in his own career than in his constituents. Still preferable in my eyes to the complete-beyond-useless bland prototype New Labour MPs we've had before and after him though which really says a lot.
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SciFiRory
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#2639
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#2639
(Original post by Saoirse:3)
Agreed. I can say from person experience he was utterly inept when he was my MP (for Bethnal Green and Bow), a million times more interested in his own career than in his constituents. Still preferable in my eyes to the complete-beyond-useless bland prototype New Labour MPs we've had before and after him though which really says a lot.
fair enough, rather tragic that one of the few people standing up for proper old Labour policies in the RL HoC is an egotist like him, we need an army of modern day Tony Benn's to take over Labour I think haha!
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Rakas21
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#2640
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#2640
(Original post by Saoirse:3)
Agreed. I can say from person experience he was utterly inept when he was my MP (for Bethnal Green and Bow), a million times more interested in his own career than in his constituents. Still preferable in my eyes to the complete-beyond-useless bland prototype New Labour MPs we've had before and after him though which really says a lot.

(Original post by SciFiRory)
fair enough, rather tragic that one of the few people standing up for proper old Labour policies in the RL HoC is an egotist like him, we need an army of modern day Tony Benn's to take over Labour I think haha!
Being on the left, what do you think to his pro-Iran stance.
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