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    (Original post by Algren)
    Personally, immigration isn't my chief concern anyway, just responding to your immigration "facts" which are irrelevant and bias.
    That's good to hear. So your main concern is what?
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    (Original post by Algren)
    Also, a graph showing the population of the eurozone is very selective (and dare I say bias), what about the other 9 EU countries?
    Thanks for spotting it was only Eurozone - I hadn't noticed that.

    So here's total Europe with Africa for comparison. Oh look, total Europe is also declining.

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    (Original post by Fullofsurprises)
    Your cartoon doesn't say where the parachutists are going to land. The Swamp of Prolonged Recession.
    Damn, going even more extreme than the official project fear

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    (Original post by jneill)
    Thanks for spotting it was only Eurozone - I hadn't noticed that.

    So here's total Europe with Africa for comparison. Oh look, total Europe is also declining.

    Right, so because the population of one group where you control immigration from is growing, but the one where you can't control immigration from is falling, it means that controlling both will...what are you even trying to say?

    You do realise that the population growth of the Commonwealth and Africa is absolutely irrelevant?

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    (Original post by jneill)
    That's good to hear. So your main concern is what?
    Good question, and not simple to answer. I question the logic and sense of tying together the economies and policies of very different countries, who are at different stages in development, have different ideologies and quite simply have nothing in common but geography. Countries have been (and will continue to be) added into the EU based on political BS rather than the strength of their economy and what the EU would gain. I believe the growth of the EU is once again, unsustainable, as it gets bigger it contributes less and less to the worlds economy (see Lord JCBs letter to his employees).

    Simply put, I believe (with my limited knowledge, but lets be honest, the government haven't helped that knowledge) it is a dying institution, which is getting worse over time, provides no perks of being a member unless you are a less developed country yourself, and is hindering our recovery from the recession.

    The reason these heads of states and business leaders are essentially threatening us to stay (which makes me want to leave more) is because we are a key player in holding up the EU, but I believe that we are doing this to our detriment, and ultimately, to the detriment of those we are propping up also.
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    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    Right, so because the population of one group where you control immigration from is growing, but the one where you can't control immigration from is falling, it means that controlling both will...what are you even trying to say?

    You do realise that the population growth of the Commonwealth and Africa is absolutely irrelevant?

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    Clearly it isn't remotely irrelevant. Africa has burgeoning population growth and therefore that, coupled with poverty, war and disastrous effects of climate change in many areas, are going inevitably to create huge northward migration pressures to Europe and (inevitably) the UK.
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    Then again we remember the general election last year and how reality turned out to be very different from polls...
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    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    Right, so because the population of one group where you control immigration from is growing, but the one where you can't control immigration from is falling, it means that controlling both will...what are you even trying to say?

    You do realise that the population growth of the Commonwealth and Africa is absolutely irrelevant?

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    And by the same token it's entirely disingenous to say that 500 million fellow europeans are coming to the street's of the UK tomorrow. Or next year. Or the year after that.

    It's not going to happen.
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    (Original post by Fullofsurprises)
    Clearly it isn't remotely irrelevant. Africa has burgeoning population growth and therefore that, coupled with poverty, war and disastrous effects of climate change in many areas, are going inevitably to create huge northward migration pressures to Europe and (inevitably) the UK.
    What's he doing making the case for brexit, he happily ignores massive swathes of posts

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    The only legitimate argument to staying is that all these countries are threatening that if we leave they won't do trade with us. Firstly, I believe this is despicable black mail, and has 100% actually harmed what they are fighting for, how many brits do you know who take nicely to being blackmailed? More people will say "well F U too" than bow to this. Secondly, I really doubt that once we have left they would stick to this, we are the fifth largest economy (I think), I really hope world leaders aren't petty enough to harm their own countries to spite us, we could also trade with, you know, that other 85% of the WORLD. And finally, I think it is entirely possible the EU may crumble without us (can't remember which head of state said that I'm afraid, but is was one campaigning for us in), in which case no one will be in the EU so any EU trade deals (or our exclusion from them) become irrelevant.
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    (Original post by Algren)
    Good question, and not simple to answer. I question the logic and sense of tying together the economies and policies of very different countries, who are at different stages in development, have different ideologies and quite simply have nothing in common but geography. Countries have been (and will continue to be) added into the EU based on political BS rather than the strength of their economy and what the EU would gain. I believe the growth of the EU is once again, unsustainable, as it gets bigger it contributes less and less to the worlds economy (see Lord JCBs letter to his employees).

    Simply put, I believe (with my limited knowledge, but lets be honest, the government haven't helped that knowledge) it is a dying institution, which is getting worse over time, provides no perks of being a member unless you are a less developed country yourself, and is hindering our recovery from the recession.

    The reason these heads of states and business leaders are essentially threatening us to stay (which makes me want to leave more) is because we are a key player in holding up the EU, but I believe that we are doing this to our detriment, and ultimately, to the detriment of those we are propping up also.
    I appreciate the considered answer. Let me have a think and I'll get back to you later
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    (Original post by Algren)
    Good question, and not simple to answer. I question the logic and sense of tying together the economies and policies of very different countries, who are at different stages in development, have different ideologies and quite simply have nothing in common but geography. Countries have been (and will continue to be) added into the EU based on political BS rather than the strength of their economy and what the EU would gain. I believe the growth of the EU is once again, unsustainable, as it gets bigger it contributes less and less to the worlds economy (see Lord JCBs letter to his employees).

    Simply put, I believe (with my limited knowledge, but lets be honest, the government haven't helped that knowledge) it is a dying institution, which is getting worse over time, provides no perks of being a member unless you are a less developed country yourself, and is hindering our recovery from the recession.

    The reason these heads of states and business leaders are essentially threatening us to stay (which makes me want to leave more) is because we are a key player in holding up the EU, but I believe that we are doing this to our detriment, and ultimately, to the detriment of those we are propping up also.
    (Original post by jneill)
    I appreciate the considered answer. Let me have a think and I'll get back to you later
    I'm pretty sure a full-blown EU collapse over the next 10 years if that is a possibility, is not what anyone, anywhere in the world wants. Heck, the economic consequences could be catastrophic.

    In that circumstance, the UK leaving could be considered akin to removing a vital Jenga block.
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    (Original post by Axion)
    I'm pretty sure a full-blown EU collapse over the next 10 years if that is a possibility, is not what anyone, anywhere in the world wants. Heck, the economic consequences could be catastrophic.

    In that circumstance, the UK leaving could be considered akin to removing a vital Jenga block.
    Yep.

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    (Original post by Axion)
    I'm pretty sure a full-blown EU collapse over the next 10 years if that is a possibility, is not what anyone, anywhere in the world wants. Heck, the economic consequences could be catastrophic.

    In that circumstance, the UK leaving could be considered akin to removing a vital Jenga block.
    You forget the eurozone crisis is still ongoing

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    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    You forget the eurozone crisis is still ongoing

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    Nah I'm well aware of that. Have stated several times in the past that trying to exit the EU, when the consequences will be so profound for the entirety of Europe, is a potentially dangerous game given the European finances on the whole are so fragile. Conventional monetary policy is increasingly useless, and fiscal policy is off the table.

    Even if there is only a say, 10%, chance of a Brexit leading to full-blown EU break-up over the next 10-15 years, that's a hell of a risk. Of course, no-one can apply a probability because markets are so complex, and there are so many links in currencies, bond prices etc....
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    (Original post by Axion)
    I'm pretty sure a full-blown EU collapse over the next 10 years if that is a possibility, is not what anyone, anywhere in the world wants. Heck, the economic consequences could be catastrophic.

    In that circumstance, the UK leaving could be considered akin to removing a vital Jenga block.
    I don't suppose you or any of the (other) learned people on here could explain in two sentences why the collapse of the EU over the next 10 years could have catastrophic consequences ?

    Or failing that,what constitutes catastrophic?


    Surely,if that was the case then the EU should have bent over backwards to give Cameron a better deal?

    Or,even better,Cameron should not have put the futures of a huge number of people at risk by offering the bloody referendum in the first place.
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    (Original post by moggis)
    I don't suppose you or any of the (other) learned people on here could explain in two sentences why the collapse of the EU over the next 10 years could have catastrophic consequences ?

    Or failing that,what constitutes catastrophic?
    Major political, social and economic disruption whilst, what, 28 countries try to negotiate trade and political deals, and patch together new frameworks as the old frameworks previously bound together by decades of the work in the EU are invalid/disregarded. Think uncertainty, but on a huge scale.

    EDIT: For your last point. Giving a better deal would equally set a precedent whereby other countries in the EU would start to think they should get a better deal. Potentially leads to a similar sort of outcome.
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    (Original post by Axion)
    Major political, social and economic disruption whilst, what, 28 countries try to negotiate trade and political deals, and patch together new frameworks as the old frameworks previously bound together by decades of the work in the EU are invalid/disregarded. Think uncertainty, but on a huge scale.

    EDIT: For your last point. Giving a better deal would equally set a precedent whereby other countries in the EU would start to think they should get a better deal. Potentially leads to a similar sort of outcome.
    Ok. Thanks.But they would have several years after Brexit in all likelihood to come up with the more important agreements and while I'm a wavering leave supporter (never thought I'd say that) and looking for reasons to vote remain ,I don't think that's enough.
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    (Original post by Axion)
    Yes, the more likely Leave goes through, the more turbulent the markets are becoming and the more evident the economic impact is going to be. Over £110bn wiped off the Uk markets alone over the past week when Remain odds have shortened from 70% to 57%, and the markets starting to tank.

    Still who cares right.... right?
    That is just a reaction almost as a deterrent. The EU countries will not want to lose trade from us as they export our superior finance and insurance services and we import their goods ie food and manufactured products. We will most likely enter a free trade agreement losing little to no trade with them, whilst benefitting from less immigration and having to inject nothing into the EU budget. The only real issue is a potential brain drain as EU foreigners will now need VISAs. But if you take Australia as the example a lot of people still go there to live and work despite that
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    (Original post by Axion)
    Major political, social and economic disruption whilst, what, 28 countries try to negotiate trade and political deals, and patch together new frameworks as the old frameworks previously bound together by decades of the work in the EU are invalid/disregarded. Think uncertainty, but on a huge scale.

    EDIT: For your last point. Giving a better deal would equally set a precedent whereby other countries in the EU would start to think they should get a better deal. Potentially leads to a similar sort of outcome.
    So the major disruption would be caused by multiple nations looking to make agreements? Solution, people leave the EU individually over time, to prevent a mad rush of all doing deals at once?

    In any case, if Britain leaving the EU prompts a collapse then either it was going to collapse anyway so we did well leaving it earlier, or we were propping it up to our own detriment and will do better apart from it. I don't believe we could be getting more than we put into it, if it is so reliant on us it collapses when we leave.
 
 
 
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