The Commons Bar Mk VIII - MHoC Chat Thread Watch

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meenu89
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#2921
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#2921
(Original post by Rakas21)
The numbers from this one put Labour on 305 seats so a little shy.
The marginals are the ones that matter.
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Cryptographic
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#2922
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#2922
(Original post by Rakas21)
QFA
(Original post by meenu89)
QFA
ICM poll has just been released, Tories have a 2% lead there as well.

http://www1.politicalbetting.com/ind...with-a-2-lead/
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/...rdian-icm-poll

I wonder what has caused this. In the ICM poll Labour are down six points.
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Rakas21
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#2923
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#2923
(Original post by Cryptographic)
ICM poll has just been released, Tories have a 2% lead there as well.

http://www1.politicalbetting.com/ind...with-a-2-lead/
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/...rdian-icm-poll

I wonder what has caused this. In the ICM poll Labour are down six points.
Wow. Personally i rate the ICM very highly (my choice poll) but they've had a 3-5% Labour lead for the last 5 months (previously had 4-8% for Labour for about a year bar an outlier or two).

Will be interesting to see if the Greens are the cause and whether it subsides.
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Rakas21
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#2924
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#2924
This is actually even more interesting...

The Tories are up two on April, which puts them on 27%, and in a virtual dead heat with Ukip, which has bounced up four in the European stakes to stand at 26%. Labour sinks by 12 points on April, to 24%, with appreciable proportions of the party's 2010 votes moving to Ukip and the Greens.

Together with Lib Dem defectors (Clegg's party languishes on 7%) this helps push the Greens up four and into a clear fourth place, on 10%. The Scottish and Welsh nationalists are on 2% each, and assorted independents and others notch up 3%.
EP election poll.
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Cryptographic
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#2925
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#2925
(Original post by Rakas21)
Wow. Personally i rate the ICM very highly (my choice poll) but they've had a 3-5% Labour lead for the last 5 months (previously had 4-8% for Labour for about a year bar an outlier or two).

Will be interesting to see if the Greens are the cause and whether it subsides.
Yeah, I rate them quite well, I think a combination of the economy, Labour's negative campaigning (Pushing quite a few Lib Dems away), and the greens are the major factors. I reckon that it won't get any worse for the Tories, the Green's support should continue for a few months, by that time incumbency bonus and the economy will start to take over the strain, falling satisfaction with Nigel Farage (same poll) with some voters returning to the Tories (small-c types, 'grey voters') I wouldn't be surprised with a large lead in the GE. This mix of factors have never happened before so there is no precedent.
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Cryptographic
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#2926
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#2926
(Original post by Rakas21)
This is actually even more interesting...

EP election poll.
12 point shrink :eek:. So Tories-UKIP-Labour-Greens-LibDems. That would be completely devastating for Ed if it comes to fruition. That is a major shift, 12 points, I wonder what could have caused that?
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Rakas21
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#2927
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#2927
(Original post by Cryptographic)
12 point shrink :eek:. So Tories-UKIP-Labour-Greens-LibDems. That would be completely devastating for Ed if it comes to fruition. That is a major shift, 12 points, I wonder what could have caused that?
Their previous 36% was the highest anybody gave them by 2%. If we look at all the polls excluding the best and worst then 28-34% were the April numbers for all pollsters. I've only seen 6 others in May so far at 26-30% so while this is an outlier, there does seem to be a drop.
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Stiff Little Fingers
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#2928
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#2928
Ukip candidate on Twitter complaining about ukip being bottom of the ballots. Wonder if they'll pledge to change the alphabet as part of the 2015 campaign?

Posted from TSR Mobile
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nixonsjellybeans
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#2929
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#2929
(Original post by Stiff Little Fingers)
Ukip candidate on Twitter complaining about ukip being bottom of the ballots. Wonder if they'll pledge to change the alphabet as part of the 2015 campaign?

Posted from TSR Mobile
I assume to something like wingdings.
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barnetlad
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#2930
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#2930
(Original post by Stiff Little Fingers)
Ukip candidate on Twitter complaining about ukip being bottom of the ballots. Wonder if they'll pledge to change the alphabet as part of the 2015 campaign?

Posted from TSR Mobile
They could go from being a party of the 1950s to one of the 1930s, or back to something like their original name. Anti-EU party would be before Conservative, Green, Labour or Liberal Democrat.
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Cryptographic
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#2931
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#2931
We still have Yougov's poll for the Sun to come tonight, out of the three so far today, two show Conservatives 2 points up, and the other 1 point down.

Today's polls so far show Conservative up 2% since last polls, Labour down 3% with UKIP and Lib Dems up half a percent each.
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TheCrackInTime
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#2932
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#2932
(Original post by Stiff Little Fingers)
Ukip candidate on Twitter complaining about ukip being bottom of the ballots. Wonder if they'll pledge to change the alphabet as part of the 2015 campaign?

Posted from TSR Mobile
I caught the PEB for 'An Independence from Europe' on TV last week, and thought to myself that it was a pretty awkward sounding party name. I hadn't even thought about the order that the parties appear on the ballot paper until reading this, but I guess that explains it.
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Blue Meltwater
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#2933
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#2933
Yay Green boost! Boo Conservative boost.

I hate First Past the Post.
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Rakas21
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#2934
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#2934
(Original post by Cryptographic)
We still have Yougov's poll for the Sun to come tonight, out of the three so far today, two show Conservatives 2 points up, and the other 1 point down.

Today's polls so far show Conservative up 2% since last polls, Labour down 3% with UKIP and Lib Dems up half a percent each.
Youguv Euro poll put Labour on 25%, ICM is an outlier but not by much.
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Cryptographic
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#2935
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#2935
(Original post by Rakas21)
Youguv Euro poll put Labour on 25%, ICM is an outlier but not by much.
There have been 2 putting cons up by 2%, and 2 putting Lab up by 1%, either way it is looking pretty even.
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bun
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#2936
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#2936
(Original post by TheCrackInTime)
I caught the PEB for 'An Independence from Europe' on TV last week, and thought to myself that it was a pretty awkward sounding party name. I hadn't even thought about the order that the parties appear on the ballot paper until reading this, but I guess that explains it.
I saw that and thought exactly the same - it seemed very clumsy, certainly doesn't roll off the tongue. Also seemed a very weird PEB! Not quite BNP weird, but ridiculous nonetheless.

Also - YOU'RE BACK!!
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TheCrackInTime
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#2937
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#2937
(Original post by bun)
I saw that and thought exactly the same - it seemed very clumsy, certainly doesn't roll off the tongue. Also seemed a very weird PEB! Not quite BNP weird, but ridiculous nonetheless.
Agreed, but then I find all PEBs to be very weird. I'd be interested to find out if there's any data that shows whether PEBs change how voters think about certain parties though, because I really don't think they make much of a difference. Certainly not enough to justify providing parties with free advertisements on national television anyway, but that's a whole different discussion!

Also - YOU'RE BACK!!
Not quite, but I'll be popping in now and again when I've got a bit of free time. :yep:
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bun
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#2938
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#2938
(Original post by TheCrackInTime)
Agreed, but then I find all PEBs to be very weird. I'd be interested to find out if there's any data that shows whether PEBs change how voters think about certain parties though, because I really don't think they make much of a difference. Certainly not enough to justify providing parties with free advertisements on national television anyway, but that's a whole different discussion!



Not quite, but I'll be popping in now and again when I've got a bit of free time. :yep:
I suppose it's difficult to gauge what influence they have, as we are (generally) fairly informed politically, and have either decided already who we'll vote for, or would want to read a full manifesto before deciding, so for us the PEB makes no difference. To Fred Bloggs who may or may not vote this year, and has just heard that UKIP are the racist lot, Tories are nasty posh people, Labour are terrorist hugging welfare lovers and the lib dems are ... just there, and that's all the parties he's heard of, then it may make the difference for him.
It may not as well! But you only have to watch a few episodes of Pointless (other quiz shows are available!) to realise that a good portion of our population is completely unaware when it comes to politics, so PEBs may be the only thing that convinces them one way or another


Ah ok - well, good to see you around anyway!
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That Bearded Man
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#2939
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#2939
Just out of interest - if Barack Obama was a British MP, even leader of a party, would you
A) vote for him
B) think he would be elected PM

I think Yes to both love that man
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Saracen's Fez
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#2940
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#2940
(Original post by That Bearded Man)
Just out of interest - if Barack Obama was a British MP, even leader of a party, would you
A) vote for him
B) think he would be elected PM

I think Yes to both love that man
If he adjusts himself to the European left rather than the American left then maybe. I do find it hilarious that many Americans consider Obama a communist, whereas in Europe he'd fit into the centre-right. Left-wing politics just doesn't exist in the States.

If there were one major world leader I'd have as PM it would probably be Merkel. A bit strange for a leftie maybe but she must be doing something right to be that popular. Julia Gillard would maybe have been another, she was born here and seemed to be good for Australia before the backstabbing and then that nutter Abbott taking over.
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