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    (Original post by AverageExcellence)
    No she said there is a 'strong likelihood' of an referendum, which is politician speak for ill see if i can actually win the vote before i intend it, clearly she is not confident on it and recent polls suggest there still is not a big enough appetite within the scottish public for independence. If they leave they will have to join as a new member, if they declare independence it will be completely separate negotiation. .
    Or highly likely, is highly likely.

    Like I just said, Sturgeon is going to meet with Brussels first. The only serious obstacle is Spain. If they can have an arrangement that guarantees Scotland to remain within the EU whilst the rest of the UK leaves, then you can wave goodbye to the Union.

    (Original post by AverageExcellence)
    Scottish Conservatives, Labour, Lib dems are still all for remain, whereas in the referendum every party was for remain strongly. To conflate Pro EU with pro nationalist lacks any understanding..
    Ok. And? I think you fail to understand that the independence poll ran close fairly close last time.

    (Original post by AverageExcellence)

    The voter turnout in ireland was not nearly as good as projected, it was predicted it would be 3/1 in favour of remain. A vote for leaving the UK would be a whole other story. Aside from the obvious indispensable unionism there is in Northern Ireland which make up a good 50% of the population, there remains the obvious economic argument that for every 1 pound they pay in tax 2 pounds is sent in funding to their government, over 70% of their jobs are public sector and a vote for unification with ireland (governments of UK and ROI have categorically stated there will not be an independent NI) would create civil unrest of the troubles again which nobody has appetite for.
    Who knows? People do stupid things all time, like vote for Brexit.
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    (Original post by AverageExcellence)
    The euro is doomed long term, greece are 2 weeks away from defaulting on their loan again and sending the EU into shock once more.. enjoy your dream of utopia..
    Don't care about the Euro.

    Blah blah blah. People like you have been talking about "shocks" through the EU from the Greeks for last 10 years. Has not happened.
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    (Original post by DorianGrayism)
    You can't stop them. The same way you can't stop a Zimbabwean from using the US dollar.

    Anyway, I really don't think Scots are really going to care about using a **** currency like the pound now.
    I would suspect that the EU would not be very keen on a member state (if Scotland were to become one, and that is the point of the discussion) using the currency of another state that was not itself an EU member, in fact I doubt we would even get a cup of tea out of the EU if we pitched up with such an approach.

    I suspect the price now is either:

    1, adopt the Euro
    2. reintroduce the Scottish pound if the EU would accept a new enrtant not using the Euro.

    At least with these we may get tea and a biscuit during our friendly chat.

    The variables of independence just got a little more complicated since 2014 but at least one is removed, the currency would not be sterling.

    Without any input into the quantum of the money supply/ interest rates Scotland would be incapable of correcting matters and even the EU would have no control over same, no, if rUK is leaving and Scotland wants EU membership then we stop using sterling.
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    (Original post by DorianGrayism)
    Or highly likely, is highly likely.

    Like I just said, Sturgeon is going to meet with Brussels first. The only serious obstacle is Spain. If they can have an arrangement that guarantees Scotland to remain within the EU whilst the rest of the UK leaves, then you can wave goodbye to the Union.
    Ive had 'debates' with you before you just like the sound of your own words, typical lefty full of opinions and none of the facts. If you think the only thing holding scotland back from the EU is Spain you are deluded.

    Again check out the facts, the scottish electorate still doesn't have the appetite to leave the UK, if you are literally only picking up on that as a result of what politicians have feared and what the guardian has said then you clearly are not in touch with the facts on the ground.


    (Original post by DorianGrayism)

    Ok. And? I think you fail to understand that the independence poll ran close fairly close last time.

    Who knows? People do stupid things all time, like vote for Brexit.
    Sturgeon knows she only really has one more chance in this generation to hold a referendum so she'll hold it when she knows she can win that is pretty much established policy look it up. She is not going to run the risk unless she knows full on she can win and the polls are not reflecting that.
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    (Original post by DorianGrayism)
    Don't care about the Euro.

    Blah blah blah. People like you have been talking about "shocks" through the EU from the Greeks for last 10 years. Has not happened.
    Hahaha really? 'has not happened' how do you explain the Euro crisis after these last few years? just a figment of our imaginations? grow up.
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    (Original post by DJKL)
    I would suspect that the EU would not be very keen on a member state (if Scotland were to become one, and that is the point of the discussion) using the currency of another state that was not itself an EU member, in fact I doubt we would even get a cup of tea out of the EU if we pitched up with such an approach.

    I suspect the price now is either:

    1, adopt the Euro
    2. reintroduce the Scottish pound if the EU would accept a new enrtant not using the Euro.

    At least with these we may get tea and a biscuit during our friendly chat.

    The variables of independence just got a little more complicated since 2014 but at least one is removed, the currency would not be sterling.

    Without any input into the quantum of the money supply/ interest rates Scotland would be incapable of correcting matters and even the EU would have no control over same, no, if rUK is leaving and Scotland wants EU membership then we stop using sterling.
    Well, I think if the Scotland has a choice between the Euro and being outside of the EU, my guess is that they will choose the Euro.

    Sturgeon will just point to the Irish ac cross the border and how successful they have been with the Euro.
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    (Original post by DorianGrayism)
    Well, I think if the Scotland has a choice between the Euro and being outside of the EU, my guess is that they will choose the Euro.

    Sturgeon will just point to the Irish ac cross the border and how successful they have been with the Euro.
    You clearly don't know much about Irish economics if you think they are a success story. You fail to take into account that the older scottish voter, as was one of the biggest bugs before, do not want to risk their investments by completely converting them over, you talk about a weak pound, do you really think they're going to want to convert it over now and lose out? even by your own logic it doesn't hold up.
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    (Original post by AverageExcellence)
    Hahaha really? 'has not happened' how do you explain the Euro crisis after these last few years? just a figment of our imaginations? grow up.
    Yawn. Euro Crisis? Has the Euro dropped 15% like the pound did? Seems like the pound is having a crisis.

    There is a need for fiscal transfer within the Eurozone. I am happy ot admit that. IT may even break up.

    However, has their been a shock from the Greek situation, like you just claimed? No.
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    (Original post by AverageExcellence)
    Ive had 'debates' with you before you just like the sound of your own words, typical lefty full of opinions and none of the facts. If you think the only thing holding scotland back from the EU is Spain you are deluded.

    Again check out the facts, the scottish electorate still doesn't have the appetite to leave the UK, if you are literally only picking up on that as a result of what politicians have feared and what the guardian has said then you clearly are not in touch with the facts on the ground.




    Sturgeon knows she only really has one more chance in this generation to hold a referendum so she'll hold it when she knows she can win that is pretty much established policy look it up. She is not going to run the risk unless she knows full on she can win and the polls are not reflecting that.
    Exactly, she will not rush this.

    This link to a 13 minute video analysis is worth watching.

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/politic...ship-1-4162654
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    (Original post by DorianGrayism)
    Well, I think if the Scotland has a choice between the Euro and being outside of the EU, my guess is that they will choose the Euro.

    Sturgeon will just point to the Irish ac cross the border and how successful they have been with the Euro.
    Ireland have had a lot of trouble with the Euro they had to be bailed out.
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    (Original post by DorianGrayism)
    Well, I think if the Scotland has a choice between the Euro and being outside of the EU, my guess is that they will choose the Euro.

    Sturgeon will just point to the Irish ac cross the border and how successful they have been with the Euro.
    Is that the same Ireland? Success has been somewhat mixed, they are staggering back onto their feet post the financial crash.

    I think she will bide her time a little to see how thinks develop, the difficulties that could arise re cross border trading with an rUK outwith the EU could be tricky, she will likely wish to see the flavour of those arrangements between the EU/rUK before running any referendum.
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    (Original post by AverageExcellence)
    You clearly don't know much about Irish economics if you think they are a success story. You fail to take into account that the older scottish voter, as was one of the biggest bugs before, do not want to risk their investments by completely converting them over, you talk about a weak pound, do you really think they're going to want to convert it over now and lose out? even by your own logic it doesn't hold up.
    That is a great argument there. You don't know much about economics.
    hahaha

    Any Irish person only needs to go back 40 years when Ireland was a complete **** hole to know the incredible transformation that has occurred. The Irish have the fastest growth rates in the EU and will be attracting even more business now. That is why they are Pro EU.

    Oh and what about the younger Scottish voter who doesn't give a **** about their bank balance?
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    (Original post by DorianGrayism)
    Yawn. Euro Crisis? Has the Euro dropped 15% like the pound did? Seems like the pound is having a crisis.
    Pound didn't drop 15%, im worried if you are a doctor with your maths, i guess its good you can help bump off some of those elderly you have such contempt for. It has levelled out now, a crisis is prolonged economic adversity like we see in the EU

    (Original post by DorianGrayism)
    There is a need for fiscal transfer within the Eurozone. I am happy ot admit that. IT may even break up.

    However, has their been a shock from the Greek situation, like you just claimed? No.
    There has been a shockwaves going through the Eurozone for a long time now if you're too obtuse to admit that then i wont try to convince a brick wall. As for the 'need for fiscal transfer' that is fancy talk for a suffocated, basketcase economy depending on the EU to bail them out again and again, that is not being solved it is papering over the cracks and sooner or later something will have to give..

    You flippantly admit the EU might break up yet think we're silly to not be a part of it? lol.
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    (Original post by DJKL)
    Is that the same Ireland? Success has been somewhat mixed, they are staggering back onto their feet post the financial crash.

    I think she will bide her time a little to see how thinks develop, the difficulties that could arise re cross border trading with an rUK outwith the EU could be tricky, she will likely wish to see the flavour of those arrangements between the EU/rUK before running any referendum.
    They might be staggering but they are doing well. First significant budget since the crash without any cuts. The next few years will be bright.

    She may bide her time. I could imagine the EU being deliberately spiteful and offering her what she wants.
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    (Original post by DJKL)
    Is that the same Ireland? Success has been somewhat mixed, they are staggering back onto their feet post the financial crash.

    I think she will bide her time a little to see how thinks develop, the difficulties that could arise re cross border trading with an rUK outwith the EU could be tricky, she will likely wish to see the flavour of those arrangements between the EU/rUK before running any referendum.
    Because of the political situation in Ireland it is up to the secretary of state of NI to call for what they call a border poll only when there is a clear will of the Northern Irish people to join the south, that means that polling is absolutely clear, they will not even risk creating instability in Northern Ireland with the intense political issues it will create if they don't think it will yield an affirmative result.

    Sturgeon certainly wont rush into anything, the voter turnout in scotland was far lower than it was projected, experts are suggesting there is significant voter fatigue here, 2014 referendum, may 2015 general election, may 2016 scottish election, june 2016 referendum.. average people are getting tired and turnout is taking being impacted. People want to see stability.

    Sturgeon will need to let things dip and start to create new momentum for independence. Everybody is still emotional and knees are being jerked by that wont be enough to push for Scottish independence.. She will only do it if accurate polling suggests she can and many Scots (i live in scotland) are not convinced by the benefits of independence.

    I think the remain camp will have far more ammunition this time around too, they will show that when the oil prices crashed scotand would have been screwed if they went independent and would count themselves lucky, It is essentially the same voter pool and the 5% margin is just too big to close, not many people voted remain because they wanted to remain in the EU as Sturgeon is opportunistically implying.

    Overall the UK's economy will really have to go down the toilet over the next 5 years to really make Scottish independence viable.
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    (Original post by AverageExcellence)
    You think you're smarter than most of the electorate? so much for being a peaceloving democrat.. the truth is it is all about your ego to stand out as some pseudo-intellectual who clearly doesn't understand the reality on the ground.
    It's not that I think I'm smarter than most of the electorate, I just think most of the electorate is dumber than me. I don't think I'm particularly smart, I just think most of the general population are particularly dumb.

    When I walk past a table of old ladies, one ranting about how she phoned tech support, got someone with an Indian accent and proceeded to say: "I don't want to speak to a paki!", followed by her and her ass-backwards friends laughing their heads off at the unneeded racism.
    When I speak to a group of people who honestly think clouds cause global warming, when I overhear some 14 year old nobhead say to his friends: "Lets go bully bare people!" - (Yes, that actually happened), I can't help but draw my conclusions.
    And when that kind of crap happens so much more often than not, it really doesn't take much human interaction to come to the conclusion: "Yup. Most of the human race is dumb as horse ****."

    Maybe I'm just too cynical.

    Also, you've not spoken with me for anywhere near long enough to know what I do and no not understand, but, believe what you will, you're just a special little snowflake, like all of the other 7 or so billion special little snowflakes, myself included!
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    (Original post by DorianGrayism)
    That is a great argument there. You don't know much about economics.
    hahaha

    Any Irish person only needs to go back 40 years when Ireland was a complete **** hole to know the incredible transformation that has occurred. The Irish have the fastest growth rates in the EU and will be attracting even more business now. That is why they are Pro EU.

    Oh and what about the younger Scottish voter who doesn't give a **** about their bank balance?
    Id wager i know a little more than you, but you show your own ignorance by holding the ROI as some economic poster boy which will not resonate with many.

    You literally need only see ROI to see that if they convert things over the cost of living will sky rocket and that will not necessarily then be reflected in wages. They are growing quite nicely because they are recovering from a point of collapse, they have nowhere to go but up and the EU have bailed them out with many stipulations (as has the UK also).

    It is a similar argument to the ignorant lefties who said 'oh look at iceland what a success story of socialist policies in the bailout' when they were booming after going completely bankrupt!

    Younger scottish voters haven't generally got money tied up in pensions and investments where they crave need for stability, that's the fundamental difference and thats what swings elections, hence why older voters tend to be more concerned and turnout to elections than younger people.
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    (Original post by AverageExcellence)
    Pound didn't drop 15%, im worried if you are a doctor with your maths, i guess its good you can help bump off some of those elderly you have such contempt for. It has levelled out now, a crisis is prolonged economic adversity like we see in the EU
    hahaha. Love how you are using insults.

    Don't get angry because it is the end of the Union.

    It did drop by 15% against the Yen.

    (Original post by AverageExcellence)
    There has been a shockwaves going through the Eurozone for a long time now if you're too obtuse to admit that then i wont try to convince a brick wall. As for the 'need for fiscal transfer' that is fancy talk for a suffocated, basketcase economy depending on the EU to bail them out again and again, that is not being solved it is papering over the cracks and sooner or later something will have to give..

    You flippantly admit the EU might break up yet think we're silly to not be a part of it? lol.
    Nope. I was saying that the Eurozone might breakup unless there is an agreement for Fiscal transfer. Not the EU.

    People like you have been talking about "something will have to give" for 10 years. Hasn't happened. However, I listened to those with degrees that said the pound would have a "shockwave" and took my money out beforehand. Don't get jelly.
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    (Original post by The_Opinion)
    Just don't give them one, simple. Or agree to do it but in 5 years time, by which time they will be used to non-EU life and see that everything is fine.
    Why should Scotland and Ireland do what England wants.
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    (Original post by DorianGrayism)
    They might be staggering but they are doing well. First significant budget since the crash without any cuts. The next few years will be bright.

    She may bide her time. I could imagine the EU being deliberately spiteful and offering her what she wants.
    Given Scotland's current cross border trade with rUK this relationship will be very important, we also have the issue of few direct transport links with Europe that do not go through England.

    If I were the Scottish Government I would meantime be trying to give a little nudge to sea freight from say Rosyth to Europe as if we do leave the UK it will be useful, at least we have a second bridge from the central belt coming online soon,

    I did not support independence in 2014 but will keep an open mind-it all depends what deal the UK does get with the EU, but if it is poor even I may decide to vote to leave (and I was very anti the idea in 2014)

    One of the sells in 2014 was vote remain stay in the EU, whilst I do not particularly like the EU, and flirted with a leave vote, at the end of the day, and in the face of the lies from both sides, I did not consider the risks met the rewards; in my case it was a tight call and I do appreciate some of the Leave arguments, but the case made was just not strong enough. (I needed more certainties and there were none)

    I am an Anglo-Scot, parents from both sides of the border, leaving rUK would be a wrench, but if the economics post Leave do not stack up maybe it is a choice I will just have to make; time will tell.
 
 
 
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