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Who will ''win'' the next election? watch

  • View Poll Results: Who will win a majority in the 2015 election?
    Conservative Party
    15.38%
    Liberal Democrats
    1.18%
    Labour Party
    51.48%
    UKIP
    6.51%
    Green Party
    1.78%
    BNP
    1.78%
    No Majority
    21.89%

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    I'll add that my prediction is the following on a national scale...

    Labour: 36%
    Tories: 34%
    Libs: 19%
    Ukip: 9%

    This assumes that we record 1%+ growth in 2014 with falling unemployment and that the back benches don't go nutty and kick Cameron out.

    Come election day Ukip will gain but it will be muted because a vote for Ukip is a vote for Labour and Cameron will make the race presidential, additionally even now polling recently has shown the Lib Dems a few points higher than last year (an average of 8% this time last year, 11% now) and come election day again there will be some people who won't bring themselves to vote Labour (especially in the south).

    Labour will get a small majority, the Tories will probably replace Cameron with some right winger, Clegg will move aside and Ukip may get 1 or 2 seats if they focus their vote, the Greens could get Norwich South as well.
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    (Original post by Kaiser MacCleg)
    Hung parliament.

    Labour's going nowhere fast.
    Lib Dems will be hit due to their affiliation with unpopular coalition policies but I wouldn't predict a wipeout.
    Conservatives will struggle due to incumbency and a strong challenge from the right (UKIP may get its first seat).

    Labour will be the largest party, I reckon.
    A hung parliament is statistically unlikely.

    In our FPTP system the performance of the first and second parties is less important when it comes to the potential for a hung parliament than the performance of the third party. Even if Labour don't do better than the 36% that the Tories got this time, the Lib Dems are likely to lose some of their share and that will open up a majority as Labour win the marginals.
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    (Original post by Kaiser MacCleg)
    Hung parliament.

    Labour's going nowhere fast.
    Lib Dems will be hit due to their affiliation with unpopular coalition policies but I wouldn't predict a wipeout.
    Conservatives will struggle due to incumbency and a strong challenge from the right (UKIP may get its first seat).

    Labour will be the largest party, I reckon.
    I echo every point made here...
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    (Original post by Rakas21)
    A hung parliament is statistically unlikely.

    In our FPTP system the performance of the first and second parties is less important when it comes to the potential for a hung parliament than the performance of the third party. Even if Labour don't do better than the 36% that the Tories got this time, the Lib Dems are likely to lose some of their share and that will open up a majority as Labour win the marginals.
    Could happen, I grant you. I really don't think it'll be all that bad for the Libs though, barring another major screw-up. It would be a shame if Labour is able to walk to victory despite apparently remaining every bit as unpopular as their leader, though.
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    (Original post by alexh42)
    Tory majority.

    Posted from TSR Mobile
    Are you being serious? After what they've done to this country?

    To be honest I think all of the parties are not good choices, the public just has to settle for one.


    Posted from TSR Mobile
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    (Original post by Rakas21)
    I'll add that my prediction is the following on a national scale...

    Labour: 36%
    Tories: 34%
    Libs: 19%
    Ukip: 9%

    This assumes that we record 1%+ growth in 2014 with falling unemployment and that the back benches don't go nutty and kick Cameron out.

    Come election day Ukip will gain but it will be muted because a vote for Ukip is a vote for Labour and Cameron will make the race presidential, additionally even now polling recently has shown the Lib Dems a few points higher than last year (an average of 8% this time last year, 11% now) and come election day again there will be some people who won't bring themselves to vote Labour (especially in the south).

    Labour will get a small majority, the Tories will probably replace Cameron with some right winger, Clegg will move aside and Ukip may get 1 or 2 seats if they focus their vote, the Greens could get Norwich South as well.
    There is absolutely no chance whatsoever of the Conservatives getting a majority under Cameron. Saying "you'll let Labour in" no longer works as a threat because the Lib/Lab/Con are all the same.
    Thus it's UKIP or it's the establishment, and the establishment has completely let down the people of this country. The national mood is sullen and apathetic, but UKIP brings hope.

    A vote for UKIP is a vote for UKIP and an end to the tyranny of the EU.

    A vote for any other party is a vote for more of the same: more EU, more mass open door immigration, more ruinous energy policies and more champagne socialist career politicians who think they can spend your money better than you can.

    "They have let you down"

    With two full years to spell this message out, UKIP are going to perform wildly better than they're being given credit for at this juncture. If they don't win in 2015, it will be a landslide in 2020 (if we're still allowed to vote by then).
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    If.
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    (Original post by GreigM)
    I'm hoping Scotland become independent!

    SNP
    Me too- less Labour MPs in the Palace of Westminster and hopefully never another Labour Government again!
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    (Original post by RemiMarcelle)
    Are you being serious? After what they've done to this country?

    To be honest I think all of the parties are not good choices, the public just has to settle for one.


    Posted from TSR Mobile
    unless I have missed something for the last 3 years, what exactly have they done to this country?

    I think you're probably referring to Labour's rape of 1997-2010 darling...
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    Miliband makes a major policy launch at the end of 2013, before unveiling the 2015 manifesto in early 2014. He gains much support but remains overall unpopular, not helped by his appointment of Balls.
    Cameron just about survives until the election but remains unpopular with his party and the public at large.
    Vince Cable become DPM in 2014 following a vote of no confidence in Clegg, Lib Dems regain some credibility despite Cable's complicity in coalition.
    UKIP unveil their manifesto, and are savaged by the intelligentsia for an inconsistent, largely incoherent, body of populist rubbish. Nonetheless, Farage remains popular.
    The Green Party get more support after Bennett is involved in the party leader debates.

    Overall:
    Labour: 46%
    Conservatives: 28%
    Lib Dems: 20%
    UKIP: 4%
    Greens: 2%

    Labour and Greens form a loose coalition, so that Labour can take advantage of the 3 seats won by the Greens, and justify a slide to the left despite their overwhelming majority in terms of seats. Come 2020, the Conservatives and UKIP have merged, both ridiculed at the last election, but because of Labour's popularity and success, get less electoral support than the Lib Dems, who become the second party. The Greens gain popularity given their influence in the Lab/Gre coalition, and gradually gain popularity. 2020 sees

    Labour: 54%
    Lib Dems: 20%
    Tories: 18%
    Greens: 8%

    Maybe a bit whimsical?
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    Labour are unpopular but not nearly as unpopular as the conservatives and Lib Dems right now... my prediction is a labour majority due to the (very) bad satisfaction polls of the current government.

    Another thing, the rise of UKIP is splitting the right-wing vote, which will lose the conservatives a few competitive seats.
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    I've actually changed my mind on this. I was convinced Labour would win a majority, but I don't think so anymore.

    1) The economy

    If the economy begins to turn a corner - which could happen anytime between now and 2015 - then this could radically alter the situation.

    After all, in reality not that many people give a toss about the Guardian anti-Tory agenda. They are more concerned about their jobs, their wages, and a general feeling that we are on the right track. Just being realistic here - not debating the merits!

    2) The left have massively undermined their cute, cuddly, 'inclusive' moral high ground with all this anti-Thatcher hysteria. Ordinary floating voters will obviously look at all of this and think to themselves that the people behind the headlines are absolute mugs, thereby driving voters to the Cons. I'm sorry but after all the drivel we've seen from the BBC/Guardian, do you really think people will buy into this 'we're so nice, we care about everyone One Nation' *******s. Short answer is NO!
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    P.S if you think the Green party is going to make progress then you are having a laugh. If there was any noticeable global warming then they might have a chance. Until then, you can forget it!
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    Most likely Labour will win a small but workable overall majority but they will struggle in power and may well be a one term government, although they could end up having a second term if the Tories implode.

    I think a lot of Tory and UKIP supporters are going to get a shock but the Conservatives are going to lose office. The problem for the activists and supporters is amongst their own Tory/UKIP circles they all think the same, and the right wing papers they read all say the same thing "nobody will ever trust Labour again they ruined Britain with immigrants etc" but out in the general population most people do not like the Tories. The fact UKIP is splitting some of their core support off only compounds the problem.

    There is not much to get excited about Labour at the moment under Ed Miliband but with a likely decline of the Lib Dem vote with all the outraged student / anti-Iraq war protest vote / Guardian reading middle class professionals deserting them looking for a home, they aren't going to find that home in the Conservative party, they will either go Labour or Green.
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    Who likes any of the choices? Does it make a difference if the public don't like any of the choices? Not really. That's FPTP.

    I foresee Labour majority, because:

    1) We always invariably swing from Labour to Tory (that's FPTP). Not enough has (yet?) happened for either to no longer be the "big two".
    2) The right is far more split than the "left" currently (although I hardly think Labour is very left-wing)
    3) Any party in economic downturn will struggle to be re-elected.
    4) Lib Dems will collapse and their voters in general hate Tories more than they hate Labour.
    5) The tories seem to be disappointing even their own voters atm. Although to a lesser extent than the Lib Dems, their popularity has suffered from being in coalition.

    I predict the conservatives will crucify Cameron in a last-minute reform bid and write up policies to appeal to their UKIP losses, but it won't be enough. Perhaps Labour will rid of Ed, he's a bit of a wet fish. A charismatic Labour leader and they'd have it in the bag.

    Don't current economic predictions see the economy swinging back after 2015? If this is the case I can imagine a successful Labour term with populist spending/tax cuts and a re-election for a 2nd term. Then back to Tories. Then back to Labour etc. It will take a hell of a lot to shift the "big two" because of the way FPTP works.
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    (Original post by SHallowvale)
    Who will win? Presuming... someone will get a majority.
    Conservative Party if Boris becomes leader!

    He'd be popular enough to stop the rise of UKIP and take votes from Labour
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    (Original post by RemiMarcelle)
    Are you being serious? After what they've done to this country?

    To be honest I think all of the parties are not good choices, the public just has to settle for one.


    Posted from TSR Mobile
    Someone has already asked you but since you haven't replied I'll ask again, what have they done to this country? :lol:
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    (Original post by thesabbath)
    There is absolutely no chance whatsoever of the Conservatives getting a majority under Cameron. Saying "you'll let Labour in" no longer works as a threat because the Lib/Lab/Con are all the same.
    Thus it's UKIP or it's the establishment, and the establishment has completely let down the people of this country. The national mood is sullen and apathetic, but UKIP brings hope.

    A vote for UKIP is a vote for UKIP and an end to the tyranny of the EU.

    A vote for any other party is a vote for more of the same: more EU, more mass open door immigration, more ruinous energy policies and more champagne socialist career politicians who think they can spend your money better than you can.

    "They have let you down"

    With two full years to spell this message out, UKIP are going to perform wildly better than they're being given credit for at this juncture. If they don't win in 2015, it will be a landslide in 2020 (if we're still allowed to vote by then).
    I could be wrong but I think that's an extremely over-confident view. FPTP is an enormous obstacle for a party like UKIP.

    Also, at least as many people disillusioned with big party politics are too left wing or non-white to ever vote UKIP.
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    (Original post by Mockery)
    Someone has already asked you but since you haven't replied I'll ask again, what have they done to this country? :lol:
    They've buggered it.
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    most likely labour
 
 
 
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