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Can China still surpass the US economy? Watch

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    (Original post by Eloquai)
    China is roughly the same size as the U.S. geographically and it's population is over four times larger. By both measures, the U.S. isn't exactly considerably larger.
    Sure, but how much of China west of Beijing is really habitable? Look at the population density, for example.

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    (Original post by Super Cicero)
    Completely different. The US has over double Japan's population and so for Japan to overtake the US it would need to have over double the US's GDP per capita. China is over 4 times the US population, so only needs to get to a small fraction of US GDP per capita to overtake its GDP.
    But it won't overtake it in terms of per capita income which is what counts.
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    (Original post by VeniViciVidi)
    Sure, but how much of China west of Beijing is really habitable? Look at the population density, for example.

    Is the distribution of population really an important factor to estimate the economic growth/wealth of a country...?

    Australia has the similar distribution pattern - majority of their population is living on the coast. While it didn't stop Australia becoming a wealthy country.
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    China is a developing country, although the overall level of GDP is high, but a large gap between rich and poor
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    It is unlikely to ever surpass the US by per capita, it will be stuck in a "middle income trap" for a long while before it could even be a high income nation. It will also have huge problems controlling inflation in the next few years especially those that has to do with food and fuel.

    Another thing to consider is much of their figures tend to be about as accurate as Saudi Arabia's claims on the size of it's oil reserves.

    I won't doubt it that in time it will be a bigger economy than US by overall GDP size, maybe in as little as 10 years or so and they will move away from an export economy in favour of a consumer based one when income levels permit it which is already showing signs that it is in many of the major cities.

    Either way I doubt it will make all that much difference to the rest of us.
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    China needs to ask for their loans back and stop bailing out the dollar. Then the USD will collapse and China(with a lot of struggles) will become superpower. But it is risky. USD collapse would affect Chinese negatively and economy would stop growing for several years. They have one key which allows them to win agianst US: it is manufacturing. USA has nothing, they thrown out their factories to China.
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    China is expected to have an economic crash larger than the world has ever seen. They're developing for the sake of developing - there's so much new stuff being built but nobody is using or buying it.

    China has 64 million empty apartments, all in new high rise developments that the average population can't afford. There are ghost cities designed to hold up to 12 million people.

    The government is building stuff just to make growth look big, but it's the most empty form of GDP possible, just a megaton of buildings that most can't afford.

    The current occupancy rate of all the new stuff if 25%, and its been like that for a long time now. New apartments are at least $100'000 bit the average yearly salary is only $6000.

    Quite interesting really. I can't link to it as I'm on my phone, but trying searching YouTube for 'China ghost cities' or something like that.

    The country will probably grow a lot and does have a rising middle class, but the lower classes are left stagnant, totally priced out of all the new developments. It could lead to any kind of revolt.

    And if the new developments don't see enough buyers (64 million homes, all far too expensive for the average citizen), then a gigantic economic crisis is inevitable at some point. Don't know when though.



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