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Will Nigel Farage become an MP in 2015? Watch

  • View Poll Results: Will Nigel Farage become UKIP's first MP in 2015?
    Yes
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    65.96%
    No
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    34.04%

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    (Original post by tc92)
    A handful of MPs could potentially have some real sway over the government. Think back to the days of the grand coalition of the Left being mooted in 2010 (Labour, Lib Dems, SNP + Plaid). The Tories with their Unionist allies in Northern Ireland, the "Liberal" (in its traditional sense) part of the Lib Dems, and a handful of UKIP MPs could be enough to pass legislation on issues like Europe, Immigration, the economy etc.

    In 2010, the Tories were 19 seats short of an absolute majority. Throw in the 8 of the DUP in exchange for extra cash for N. Ireland, take out the 5 from Sinn Fein who would never turn up to vote against the Gov't anyway, and it's unbelievably tight with a few Tory gains. With even just a 'handful' of seats, UKIP could make a difference.

    Especially considering the enormously unbalanced nature of the current Coalition in relation to the proportion of seats each party won.
    I would expect enough labour MPs to pledge support to the tories jsut to stop UKIP having influence in this case. Labour dislike the tories, but they hate UKIP.
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    (Original post by james22)
    I would expect enough labour MPs to pledge support to the tories jsut to stop UKIP having influence in this case. Labour dislike the tories, but they hate UKIP.
    Best case scenario for UKIP, they get a dozen seats and get Farage as Foreign Sec/EU Minister. They'll force a referendum on leaving the EU, which the Tories have promised already (albeit Cameron will campaign to stay in). Could make for some interesting rebellions, on things like grammar schools or green energy where there's a lot of agreement with the Conservative backbenches.

    In reality, the difference would be more in not having all the Lib Dems there any more.
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    (Original post by tc92)
    Best case scenario for UKIP, they get a dozen seats and get Farage as Foreign Sec/EU Minister.
    You are suggesting that UKIP will be able to form a government? They may have some support but this will only get a few MPs let alone allow a UKIP government of some sort.
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    (Original post by tc92)
    Best case scenario for UKIP, they get a dozen seats and get Farage as Foreign Sec/EU Minister. They'll force a referendum on leaving the EU, which the Tories have promised already (albeit Cameron will campaign to stay in). Could make for some interesting rebellions, on things like grammar schools or green energy where there's a lot of agreement with the Conservative backbenches.

    In reality, the difference would be more in not having all the Lib Dems there any more.
    Which half dozen seats could they take?
    (notice I'm not even asking for the full dozen)
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    (Original post by james22)
    Maybe, but UKIP has no chance of getting more than a handful of MP's and will have no influence on the government.
    That's what they said about Labour in the 1920s.
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    (Original post by the mezzil)
    That's what they said about Labour in the 1920s.
    Which bit of the 1920s? :

    Labour had 57 MPs in 1918, even before the Liberal party fell apart.
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    (Original post by Quady)
    Which bit of the 1920s? :

    Labour had 57 MPs in 1918, even before the Liberal party fell apart.
    Oopps, wrong decade. I meant when they first emerged, pre first world war. The suddenly in 1906, 29 LRC-sponsored candidates won seats in the election, later becoming what we now know as the Labour party. Just under 20 years later they formed a government.

    The point being a minority party can gain power if they hold populist policy's. Which UKIP do.
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    (Original post by the mezzil)
    Oopps, wrong decade. I meant when they first emerged, pre first world war. The suddenly in 1906, 29 LRC-sponsored candidates won seats in the election, later becoming what we now know as the Labour party. Just under 20 years later they formed a government.

    The point being a minority party can gain power if they hold populist policy's. Which UKIP do.
    The point is kinda fair. But:

    The LRC formed in 1899
    In 1900 they won 2 seats from 15 standing, before winning the 29 in 1906, and 42 in 1910.

    UKIP formed in 1993
    In 2010 they still didn't have any seats.
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    Comparisons to early 20th century Labour are...flawed, because early 20th century Labour was more a movement than a political party; UKIP is essentially nothing more than a protest vehicle that owes much of its recent successes to media hype.
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    probably, though I will be sad if he is, he's vile, basically admitted to being a racist on that radio interview and UKIP's policies (well when they even have em!) are just scapegoating the EU/immigration for problems caused by domestic policy by and large, I wouldn't trust him to run anything much less the place I live!
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    (Original post by Jacob-C)
    You are suggesting that UKIP will be able to form a government? They may have some support but this will only get a few MPs let alone allow a UKIP government of some sort.
    If UKIP had just a few seats, but enough to push the Tories over the line, they could ask for a position in government, or at least certain policies, as has happened in Denmark with the Danish People's Party and Geert Wilders' Freedom Party in the Netherlands.

    And just as the Lib Dems won only 8.8% of seats in 2010, but held about 20% of Cabinet positions.

    (Original post by Quady)
    Which half dozen seats could they take?
    (notice I'm not even asking for the full dozen)
    There's plenty of stuff on the internet on what target seats are winnable if you want to know. I'm guessing ballpark of a dozen in any best case scenario.
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    (Original post by Quady)
    The point is kinda fair. But:

    The LRC formed in 1899
    In 1900 they won 2 seats from 15 standing, before winning the 29 in 1906, and 42 in 1910.

    UKIP formed in 1993
    In 2010 they still didn't have any seats.
    They had 1 MP from 08-10 (defection).. he was kicked out.
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    (Original post by Rakas21)
    They had 1 MP from 08-10 (defection).. he was kicked out.
    Learn something everyday thx
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    (Original post by tc92)
    A handful of MPs could potentially have some real sway over the government. Think back to the days of the grand coalition of the Left being mooted in 2010 (Labour, Lib Dems, SNP + Plaid). The Tories with their Unionist allies in Northern Ireland, the "Liberal" (in its traditional sense) part of the Lib Dems, and a handful of UKIP MPs could be enough to pass legislation on issues like Europe, Immigration, the economy etc.

    In 2010, the Tories were 19 seats short of an absolute majority. Throw in the 8 of the DUP in exchange for extra cash for N. Ireland, take out the 5 from Sinn Fein who would never turn up to vote against the Gov't anyway, and it's unbelievably tight with a few Tory gains. With even just a 'handful' of seats, UKIP could make a difference.

    Especially considering the enormously unbalanced nature of the current Coalition in relation to the proportion of seats each party won.
    How long would a coalition with a majority of just a 'handful' last? Half a dozen backbenchers would have the power to kill it dead.
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    (Original post by Quady)
    The point is kinda fair. But:

    The LRC formed in 1899
    In 1900 they won 2 seats from 15 standing, before winning the 29 in 1906, and 42 in 1910.

    UKIP formed in 1993
    In 2010 they still didn't have any seats.
    It's also worth noting that Labour appeared and grew in large part due to the extension of the franchise to the poor. UKIP have nothing similar.

    A more apt model for UKIP would be to be to the Tories what the SDP were to Labour in the 1980s. But the SDP was a huge defection, founded by four former Labour cabinet Ministers; the highest-profile defections from the Tories to UKIP, on the other hand, are a couple of Lords and MEPs.
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    (Original post by james22)
    I would expect enough labour MPs to pledge support to the tories jsut to stop UKIP having influence in this case. Labour dislike the tories, but they hate UKIP.
    This brings up another important point - tactical voting.

    In the Newark by election, there were reports of some people apparently voting conservative because they didn't want UKIP to get in, and it was a "safe" seat where Labour and Lib Dems had no chance.

    Of course in a lot of seats people will simply vote for whever they supprort. But in some places where UKIP are the main challengers, you could get some anti-UKIP tactical voting.
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    (Original post by Numberwang)
    You're saying UKIP are gonna get more than one MP in parliament? Bold claim :eek:
    I wouldn't be surprised, especially in the south east.
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    (Original post by tc92)
    If UKIP had just a few seats, but enough to push the Tories over the line, they could ask for a position in government, or at least certain policies, as has happened in Denmark with the Danish People's Party and Geert Wilders' Freedom Party in the Netherlands.

    And just as the Lib Dems won only 8.8% of seats in 2010, but held about 20% of Cabinet positions.
    I don't think UKIP can get 5 seats, let alone 56.
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    If UKIP go into a coalition with the Tories then i am done and will just leave the UK.

    I would rather Labour get in, for the situation to get worse between 2015-2020 and for UKIP support to then be stronger.

    If UKIP get into bed with the Tories then that'll be a disgrace. They need to stand by what they believe and not become a pathetic side party like the Lib Dems have become.

    Id honestly rather Labour in power than that to happen.
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    This is a fascinating point. I think I'll say 'yes'. I'm looking back at the 2010 results for my constituency and UKIP were in second place. UKIP were still a small showing but with UKIP rising and the Conservatives falling, I can see UKIP getting a close second place come 2015. I imagine in some constituencies UKIP will have more votes and not be elected than another party did in another constituency but were elected.

    I suppose one thing we can guarantee is come 2015 the debate about using PR will reopen. I can seriously see UKIP having more votes than the Lib Dems but far fewer MP's but can also see the Conservatives having more votes than Labour but fewer seats and vice-versa.
 
 
 
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