Hey there! Sign in to join this conversationNew here? Join for free
x Turn on thread page Beta

Cameron running scared from debate watch

    Offline

    1
    ReputationRep:
    I thought you meant Cameron Diaz. Whew.
    • Thread Starter
    Offline

    1
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by Drewski)
    They watch. That is very different to paying attention..
    I think Lord Tebbit is right, this will reflect very poorly on the PM.

    It would be a mistake to think that this is as bad as it's going to get for Cameron, as we get closer to the debate and the clock counts down, the media will work itself up into a fever state speculating over whether he will break.

    This election's is Ed Miliband's to win, the usual incumbency rules don't apply so Cameron has as much to gain as anyone given he's been trailing in the polls for this entire parliament
    • Thread Starter
    Offline

    1
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by Observatory)
    Finally if they call his bluff and empty-chair Cameron he gets the best of all possible worlds with a Farage vs Miliband debate.
    Actually I think that's the worst of all worlds for the Conservatives. Euroskeptics will conclude that only Farage speaks for them, and small-L liberals will conclude Labour is the only game in town when it comes to keeping us in Europe

    That debate will unzip the Conservatives vote right down the middle, the Prime Minister's personal authority is the only thing that has been keeping the two factions together. Cameron is calculating, but like pretty much every decision Osborne has made for him in this parliament, he calculated wrong. Two years ago they were telling us they'd be five points ahead in the polls by now. They simply lack basic political instinct, and they just don't "get" the mindset of the average voter. The fact the Conservatives haven't won an election outright since 1992 tells you they don't represent mainstream values

    Already a lot of small-l liberal upper middle-class traditionally conservative voters I know are strongly considering Labour next year as the only middle-of-the-road party (they fear the extremist wing of the Conservatives will push out of Europe, damaging their jobs and for some in the finance industry, possibly putting them out of work)

    I don't generally agree with Lord Tebbit on many things, but on this he's right; the PM's public standing will be badly damaged by his failing to take part in the debate. He's afraid the more they see of him, the less they'll like. Be that as it may, cravenness is not a highly-rated virtue in by the general public and he risks making himself an irrelevance

    When even your strongest supporters like the Daily Mail are saying you're making a mistake, one would do well to listen (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/ar...TV-debate.html)

    Oddly enough, it sounds like we're both happy for him to be empty-chaired so roll on the debates
    Offline

    17
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by young_guns)
    Actually I think that's the worst of all worlds for the Conservatives. Euroskeptics will conclude that only Farage speaks for them, and small-L liberals will conclude Labour is the only game in town when it comes to keeping us in Europe
    Fine, Cameron loses the 0-5% of people whose vote is decided by the EU question - and how many of those hasn't he irretrievably lost already?

    The upside is that Miliband gets savaged by Farage on every other issue, resulting in a loss of Labour votes to UKIP.
    Offline

    16
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by Rakas21)
    Personally I don't care about anything other than the Cameron-Miliband debate
    This is actually quite a significant change since last time. In 2010 the debates were between two leaders, Brown and Cameron, who with a decent chance of being PM and a third, Clegg, who an outside chance that seemed very unlikely but couldn't entirely be counted out, and even so could have a significant influence on government formation post-election.

    This time, we have two leaders, Cameron and Miliband, who have a decent chance of being PM, and no-one else who has any chance, or is even likely to influence government formation to the same extent that the Lib Dems did in 2010 (possibly excepting a really good result for the SNP, but as they're only standing in about 10% of seats it seems daft to include them in a national debate).
    • Thread Starter
    Offline

    1
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by Observatory)
    The upside is that Miliband gets savaged by Farage on every other issue, resulting in a loss of Labour votes to UKIP.
    :lol: You think Labour voters who have stuck with the party all through the last five years and are already fully aware of their policies will be convinced by Nigel Farage in a debate? Okay mate, if you say so.

    The data shows that for every vote Labour loses to UKIP, the Conservatives lose two. And there will be no conservative on the stage to argue their case, so all those Conservative voters will go over to UKIP

    At any rate, Labour is still ten points ahead of the Conservatives in marginal seats, which are the only places that actually matter in determining who will form the next government
    Offline

    17
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by young_guns)
    :lol: You think Labour voters who have stuck with the party all through the last five years and are already fully aware of their policies will be convinced by Nigel Farage in a debate? Okay mate, if you say so.

    The data shows that for every vote Labour loses to UKIP, the Conservatives lose two. And there will be no conservative on the stage to argue their case, so all those Conservative voters will go over to UKIP
    I don't think it works like that. People will see Miliband getting savaged by Farage (at least, I am reasonably sure that is what will happen) and conclude that Miliband is clueless and incompetent. At least some of them will. People won't reason from Cameron's non-presence that he's clueless and incompetent; probably they will forget all about him after the first five minutes.

    Both Cameron and Miliband refused to participate in the EU debate with Farage and they didn't come out any worse for it. Clegg on the other hand was savaged.

    Almost as important as the savaging, Farage will be forced to attack Miliband in Miliband's own terms, pivoting UKIP to the left. This will also tend to disproportionately win over Labour voters. An hour of Miliband trying to justify why he supports immigration and not holding a referendum (not that the EU is itself important, but it can be spun to portray him as elitist) isn't going to play well with his traditional working class voters.

    At any rate, Labour is still ten points ahead of the Conservatives in marginal seats, which are the only places that actually matter in determining who will form the next government
    I'm not arguing that the Conservatives are going to win the election, or even that I want them to, only that Cameron declining the debates isn't necessarily bad strategy. It makes a lot of sense.
    • Thread Starter
    Offline

    1
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by Observatory)
    I don't think it works like that. People will see Miliband getting savaged by Farage (at least, I am reasonably sure that is what will happen) and conclude that Miliband is clueless and incompetent.
    Sounds like you've drunk your own kool aid, and you're confusing your own partisan viewpoint for what actual people think.

    The more people see of Miliband (not soundbites, something longer than 10 seconds), the more they like him. That much is clear from our research. The Bite the Ballot interview confirmed everything we in the Labour Party suspected, and an opportunity to present his case in long form without being filtered by the right-wing media will simply confirm what we already know

    People won't reason from Cameron's non-presence that he's clueless and incompetent
    A majority of the population thinks he's clueless and incompetent, the fact they've been behind in the polls for this entire parliament merely underlines how flawed their Conservative Party's political judgment is.

    Most people will conclude he's either frightened, or a non-entity with nothing to say, and concentrate on UKIP and Labour as their choices. In a straight UKIP / Labour fight, Labour has nothing to fear. The Conservatives have everything to fear. If you think Labour is genuinely vulnerable to UKIP relative to the Conservatives, you don't understand British politics

    There's a reason the Tories haven't won an election outright since 1992; they don't represent mainstream values. The normal incumbency principles don't apply, Cameron really needs to be auditioning for the job. His conclusion that he doesn't have to confirms how screwed up Osborne's political judgment is

    probably they will forget all about him after the first five minutes.
    You really want swinging voters to be forgetting about the Prime Minister as an option? Yeah, that sounds like a smart strategy

    I'm not arguing that the Conservatives are going to win the election, or even that I want them to, only that Cameron declining the debates isn't necessarily bad strategy. It makes a lot of sense.
    No, it doesn't. It makes sense superficially to the same people who bought the Conservatives political strategy that an improving economy would put them ahead in the polls by now.

    The Conservatives have a real issue with adopting strategies that superficially could be considered to make logical sense, but really are just wishful thinking. The Prime Minister's refusal to take part in the debate is a sign of his weakness, not strength

    Look, it seems like Conservatives and Labour are on the same page; they're happy for Cameron not to attend. We'll just wait and see who was right
    Offline

    17
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by young_guns)
    Sounds like you've drunk your own kool aid, and you're confusing your own partisan viewpoint for what actual people think.

    The more people see of Miliband (not soundbites, something longer than 10 seconds), the more they like him. That much is clear from our research. The Bite the Ballot interview confirmed everything we in the Labour Party suspected, and an opportunity to present his case in long form without being filtered by the right-wing media will simply confirm what we already know
    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/leaders

    Miliband is consistently behind in the 'Best Prime Minister' category.

    There is left as well as right wing media

    I admit there's not much data on whether Farage would beat Miliband in a debate - but he's taken all comers so far and my subjective assessment is that Miliband is a middling/poor public performer. He's awkward and unpolished, prone to repeating rehearsed talking points verbatim. I would put Clegg against Miliband any day and Farage trashed Clegg. You may disagree and I can't prove with data; we'll see.

    A majority of the population thinks he's clueless and incompetent, the fact they've been behind in the polls for this entire parliament merely underlines how flawed their Conservative Party's political judgment is.

    Most people will conclude he's either frightened, or a non-entity with nothing to say, and concentrate on UKIP and Labour as their choices. In a straight UKIP / Labour fight, Labour has nothing to fear. The Conservatives have everything to fear. If you think Labour is genuinely vulnerable to UKIP relative to the Conservatives, you don't understand British politics

    There's a reason the Tories haven't won an election outright since 1992; they don't represent mainstream values. The normal incumbency principles don't apply, Cameron really needs to be auditioning for the job. His conclusion that he doesn't have to confirms how screwed up Osborne's political judgment is



    You really want swinging voters to be forgetting about the Prime Minister as an option? Yeah, that sounds like a smart strategy



    No, it doesn't. It makes sense superficially to the same people who bought the Conservatives political strategy that an improving economy would put them ahead in the polls by now.

    The Conservatives have a real issue with adopting strategies that superficially could be considered to make logical sense, but really are just wishful thinking. The Prime Minister's refusal to take part in the debate is a sign of his weakness, not strength

    Look, it seems like Conservatives and Labour are on the same page; they're happy for Cameron not to attend. We'll just wait and see who was right
    With respect I think you're the one who's been "drinking kool aid". Labour and the Tories are on a knife edge (UK Polling Report aggregate of polls predicting a 2 seat Labour majority right now). Cameron has a large and secure personal lead over Miliband. People are not going to forget the Prime Minister exists, they're just more likely to take his non-presence as a neutral signal than a strong negative one. Losing a TV debate on the other hand sends a strong negative signal. Ordinarily it might be worth the risk, but Miliband has nothing to gain here because Farage can't win the election anyway.
    • Thread Starter
    Offline

    1
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by Observatory)
    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/leaders

    Miliband is consistently behind in the 'Best Prime Minister' category.
    So was Thatcher. In fact, you could take almost everything that's been thrown at Miliband, substitute Thatcher and you'd have the stuff they were writing about her in 1978 and 1979.

    Labour made a huge mistake in 1979 thinking Callaghan's preferred PM rating would overcome their systemic weaknesses. The Tories are making the same mistake now

    There is left as well as right wing media
    Err, what left-wing media? There's a right-wing media (DM, Torygraph, Sun etc) and there's a centrist media (Guardian, Independent). There is no large circulation left-wing paper in this country.

    With respect I think you're the one who's been "drinking kool aid". Labour and the Tories are on a knife edge (UK Polling Report aggregate of polls predicting a 2 seat Labour majority right now).
    That's on a uniform swing polling consituents from across the country. In fact, a large number of those Tory voters are in places where it doesn't help them at all.

    When Labour and the Conservatives are neck and neck in the polls, that actually translates to a Labour lead of about 5 points given their vote distribution. In any case, when you actually look at marginal seats, Lord Ashcroft's polling suggests Labour has a substantial lead over the Conservatives. The conservatives need to be seven points ahead of Labour to win a majority given their vote distribution. I will eat my hat if there is not a majority between Labour and SNP, or some similar workable coalition

    Many people also suggest that the "shy Tory" phenomenon pollsters weight into their polls actually no longer exists, and if anything there's a "shy Labour voter" phenomenon. In any case, if Labour and the Conservatives go into the next election neck and neck in the polls, the Conservatives will lose. It's just that simple. The electoral mathematics simply doens't work for the Conservatives

    but Miliband has nothing to gain here because Farage can't win the election anyway.
    Actually, he has a lot to gain. There are swing voters in marginal seats who are up for grabs. Anyway, Labour will hammer the PM over and over again between now and polling day as a man who can't stand up in public and defend his record (not surprising given how poorly the economy has been managed, but there you go)

    It bears repeating that the Conservatives haven't managed to win an election outright since 1992 (primarily because they don't represent mainstream values); common sense tells us after five years in power, and being one of the least popular governments in living memory, they are unlikely to overcome their 23 year losing streak now
    Offline

    3
    ReputationRep:
    Labour will get wiped out in Scotland, Miliband is useless and incompetent, just like his party has been since the 70s. Blair succeed of Thatcher's own legacy - not a stroke of socialist genius.

    Tories and Labour are neck and neck, but because the British electorate seems to be stupid/have incredibly short memories Labour will probably come out with the largest majority, and then doomsday will strike when the SNP holds the balance of power and we get a bigoted fart of a woman as deputy prime minister and a weak prime minister.

    Fingers crossed UKIP helps wipe out the Liberal Democrats and destroys massive Labour majorities in the North of England, and we will end up with a broken parliament full of moderately sized parties.

    As for the debates? Meh. The Tories can't do anything anyway - Labour left us in a financial mess and the world economy is in tatters anyway due the the eurozone.
    Offline

    21
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by young_guns)
    Blair actually won elections; his clear mandate came from the British people. How many elections have the Tories won outright since 1992?



    Why should the Greens be included? They're a fringe party, if they are included you may as well include the DUP

    Having said that, Ed Miliband is happy to participate whether or not the Greens are present. And Tory sources have made clear that this is all about David Cameron fearing UKIP.



    You must not have been paying attention to British politics in recent years if you think the debates are irrelevant to the broader population. They are in fact one of the few times when they do pay attention
    UKIP are a fringe party too. Either the Greens should be included or UKIP should be excluded.
    Offline

    3
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by Zerforax)
    UKIP are a fringe party too. Either the Greens should be included or UKIP should be excluded.

    You might dislike them but they aren't really a fringe party.
    • Thread Starter
    Offline

    1
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by Zerforax)
    UKIP are a fringe party too. Either the Greens should be included or UKIP should be excluded.
    Actually, they're not a fringe party. You can hardly call a party that came first in the European elections and has 24 MEPs (the largest contingent of any UK party in the European parliament) a fringe party. You can't call a party that has hundreds of local councillors, members in the House of Commons, tens of thousands of members a fringe party.

    Of course, it is clear that Cameron's claim that he won't take part if the Greens don't has nothing to do with principle and everything to do with wanting to avoid a debate, even his own people have been briefing the media that is the case.

    Either way, Ed Miliband has made clear he is happy to participate in the debate whether the Greens are there or not. He doesn't fear scrutiny, the PM does. Bottling the debate out of claimed despair for the absence of the Greens just comes across as whiney and mealy-mouthed
    Offline

    21
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by El-Presidente)
    You might dislike them but they aren't really a fringe party.
    UKIP have 2 parliamentary seats. The Greens have 1 parliamentary seat.

    A lot of Greens supporters will vote for other parties since they know the Greens won't get enough votes to win seats.
    Offline

    21
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by young_guns)
    Actually, they're not a fringe party. You can hardly call a party that came first in the European elections and has 24 MEPs (the largest contingent of any UK party in the European parliament) a fringe party. You can't call a party that has hundreds of local councillors, members in the House of Commons, tens of thousands of members a fringe party.

    Of course, it is clear that Cameron's claim that he won't take part if the Greens don't has nothing to do with principle and everything to do with wanting to avoid a debate, even his own people have been briefing the media that is the case.

    Either way, Ed Miliband has made clear he is happy to participate in the debate whether the Greens are there or not. He doesn't fear scrutiny, the PM does.
    *snort*

    Most people don't care about the European elections. There was only a 34% turnout. Some 15-16mil voted at the European elections but there were almost 30mil voters in the 2010 elections.

    The Green party got a higher number of votes at the European elections than the Lib Dems - surely they should be included over Lib Dems on that basis?

    In terms of number of local councillors, yes UKIP may have around double what the Greens currently have but UKIP are still 1/6th of the Lib Dems.

    Ed Miliband would refuse to take part of the debates if UKIP were excluded because he knows they will take votes away from the Conservatives.
    • Thread Starter
    Offline

    1
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by Zerforax)
    *snort*

    Most people don't care about the European elections. There was only a 34% turnout. Some 15-16mil voted at the European elections but there were almost 30mil voters in the 2010 elections
    You can perform all the mental gymnastics you like; by no stretch of the imagination are UKIP a fringe party. If they were, the Conservatives wouldn't be running scared from them

    Ed Miliband would refuse to take part of the debates if UKIP were excluded because he knows they will take votes away from the Conservatives.
    Ed Miliband is happy to debate whoever is there, whether it includes the Greens or UKIP or not.

    In any case, it is entirely clear that this has nothing to do with the Greens and everything to do with the PM's desire not to take part in any debate, even his own people have admitted that to the press
    • Political Ambassador
    Online

    21
    ReputationRep:
    Political Ambassador
    (Original post by young_guns)
    Why should the Greens be included? They're a fringe party, if they are included you may as well include the DUP
    DUP: regional, Green: National
    not a very good comparison really


    (Original post by andersonsophie_8)
    The Green party policies are quite sensible, but they dont get a lot of attention like UKIP. If I was Cameron, I would refuse any chance of real debates.
    Are they?
 
 
 
Poll
Do you agree with the proposed ban on plastic straws and cotton buds?
Useful resources

Groups associated with this forum:

View associated groups

The Student Room, Get Revising and Marked by Teachers are trading names of The Student Room Group Ltd.

Register Number: 04666380 (England and Wales), VAT No. 806 8067 22 Registered Office: International House, Queens Road, Brighton, BN1 3XE

Write a reply...
Reply
Hide
Reputation gems: You get these gems as you gain rep from other members for making good contributions and giving helpful advice.