Based on some of the things I've read about the methods of economists, I'm not sure why I should assume they actually know about the economy.

It is a tough question though. Will Germany try to screw over one of their largest export markets? Will we be in a lower negotiating position than Norway? I think I'll ask my trusty dice.

With the trade by the EU people always say *"we won't get anything because we make up so little " what they don't bother taking about is trade with the select few EU states, particularly Germany, which actually hold the power.

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Reply 26

Unkempt_One

Original post by DorianGrayism

#Economistsarenotcredibleiftheydon'tagreewithme

They call me the right economist cos I'm right about everything. Up or down? Doesn't matter, I'll figure it out. The people who don't agree with me? Idiots. I predicted the financial crash by the way, saw it coming a while off. The next one will happen at 10:30 am tomorrow mark my words.

Reply 27

DorianGrayism

Original post by Unkempt_One

They call me the right economist c.

Don't care.

Reply 28

Howard

Original post by JordanL_

No, but it means their views very, very likely are more right, because they're based in fact and understanding rather than whatever the Daily Mail said.

The best economists in the world failed to see 2008 coming. Economics is like shooting into the side of a barn, drawing a red circle around the hole, and declaring it a bullseye. They only predict events after they've already happened. I don't put economists on any kind of a pedestal.

Reply 29

Unkempt_One

Original post by Jammy Duel

I would actually like to see a serious analysis of this question that goes further than "WEll 50% of our imports come from the EU and they'll stop forever and we'll broke rofl"

Reply 30

Unkempt_One

Original post by DorianGrayism

Don't care.

Don't care about the financial crash? Okay then. Don't say I didn't warn you. It will happen at some indefinite time in the future.

Reply 31

Unkempt_One

Original post by Howard

The problem is that economics is an extremely cross-disciplinary subject, I think to do good analysis you need to be versed in a large body of information, and economists, well . . .

Reply 32

BradleyLawrence

I would say that the economy would suffer in the short term, however, we will flourish in the long term, maybe not longer than a decade after we leave. It may seem like a long time but the whole reason why this referendum has been put into place is to save our country from social, undemocratic issues which go against the many values we believe in. To make the debate purely out of economic arguments would be disturbing, considering it isn't even one of the concerns of the general population.

It has already been said how prosperous our country is; given its size, lack of manufacturing etc we are doing incredibly well and thats not because of the EU. To argue that if we were to cut our ties with them that they would all of a sudden not want our financial services or us to buy their cares is crazy. We will also have the ability to compete on trade and punish those who dump their products (mainly china) that destroys our own businesses. There are a lot of moves the country can make once we leave, emphasis on when because it needs to happen.

Reply 33

Howard

Original post by Unkempt_One

The problem is that economics is an extremely cross-disciplinary subject, I think to do good analysis you need to be versed in a large body of information, and economists, well . . .

I've studied in economics at university. First page I turn to in the paper is the Biz section. First google of the day is yahoo finance. Second google is the yahoo personal finance. I read the Economist pretty religiously and I play the markets. I have a couple dozen books on economics.

So I'm definitely NOT an expert. I don't have a PHd from LSE in the subject. But I do like to think that I'm a reasonably informed layman - a step up from a taxi driver or that bloke down the pub; the resident bar stool economist.

But frankly, I'm amazed at how wrong people that ARE supposed to be experts that DO do it for a living can be.

Ever watch Mad Money? It's an American show. I love it. But Cramer, an EXPERT, does no better with his tips than if you put your money in mutual funds. This guy consistently does worse than the major indices. And he's a full time analyst of this stuff.

I take what economists say with a big pinch of salt.

(edited 8 years ago)

Reply 34

Jammy Duel

Original post by Howard

I've studied in economics at university. First page I turn too in the paper is the Biz section. First google of the day is yahoo finance. Second google is the yahoo personal finance. I read the Economist pretty religiously and I play the markets. I have a couple dozen books on economics.

So I'm definitely NOT an expert. I don't have a PHd from LSE in the subject. But I do like to think that I'm a reasonably informed layman - a step up from a taxi driver or that bloke down the pub; the resident bar stool economist.

But frankly, I'm amazed at how wrong people that ARE supposed to be experts that DO do it for a living can be.

Ever watch Mad Money? It's an American show. I love it. But Cramer, an EXPERT, does no better with his tips than if you put your money in mutual funds. This guy consistently does worse than the major indices. And he's a full time analyst of this stuff.

I take what economists say with a big pinch of salt.

Well there was the joke in Yes, Minister that the only people who understand economics less than politicians are economists

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Reply 35

BradleyLawrence

Original post by Howard

i would presume you have little knowledge on the subject, financial markets or behaviour economics? The field is difficult, mostly because it is so hard to wrap your head around every single possible play a business, a country or a consumer could make during a period of time. The best analysts are specialised in a certain area i.e Labour economics, energy economics and play a vital role in analysing data. Many people did in fact see the crash coming, it would have been blindingly obvious to anyone with knowledge on sub prime mortgages, however, nobody cared to listen.

Do Economists provide you with life saving information, findings etc? no, but they do provide a service instrumental to this country and around the world.

Reply 36

Howard

Original post by BradleyLawrence

Why the arrogant attitude? Why the "i would presume you have little knowledge on the subject, financial markets or behaviour economics?" stuck up attitude.

What's your problem? Is that how you talk to people in real life or just on the internet?