True, there's greater support for staying in in Scotland, but I've yet to meet many people who have any huge emotional attachment to the EU. It may piss people off a bit, but it's likely if there a leave vote in the rest of the UK there will still be a strong leave vote in Scotland: polling shows a difference in opinion between Scotland and England, but it's not all that wide.(Original post by DorianGrayism)
I am not saying it is economically sensible for the Scottish to leave the Union. Scottish independence has always been a stupid idea.
However, there is overwhelming support for the EU within Scotland and I think it is reasonable to say that a Tory/English driven Brexit would create enough support for Scottish independence.
For most people in the UK, the EU a pragmatic arrangement rather than an inherent part of their identity. If we did withdraw, and the UK Government came a bit of distance by saying we'd secure trade arrangements, that things like CAP payments would be honoured at the same levels and that European citizens who lived here wouldn't all be rounded up and stuck on a boat, I don't think it'd push many people into supporting independence. As much as the independence referendum was not as solid a win as I would have liked, there's still an 11 point lead there.
On the other hand, once you start nailing into the SNP's side of things, many of their arguments collapse following Brexit if they want Scotland to enter. It wouldn't be difficult for unionists to create a narrative that a Scottish accession wouldn't be retaining the status quo, but would be a completely different arrangement from what we had before through the UK. It also creates even more areas of uncertainty or disadvantage - which were some of the main areas the Better Together side argued in the referendum.
There's also the more basic point that people who voted to stay in the UK in 2014 already knew there'd more likely be a referendum on the EU - and that even under any scheme of devolution, foreign affairs would remain a reserved, national issue.
Leaving would be gambling with Scotland's place in the UK to some extent, but I always question the SNP narrative of inevitabilism. If you listen to them, virtually anything that anyone does increases the likelihood of independence, which strangely contradicts the assertion that independence is already inevitable. While there is problems with the difference in views between Scotland and England on the EU, the UK leaving also creates some huge problems for the SNP.
Brexit and Scotland watch
Last edited by L i b; 23-02-2016 at 16:41.
- 23-02-2016 16:34
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- 23-02-2016 16:47
Nicola and the SNP will feign support for staying in but in reality they are for a Brexit as it gives them another pop at independence, and they'd be more likely to win it this time.
I also think a lot of the Brexit crowd would also like for Scotland to go, too.