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Why not leave Germany to the Migrants? watch

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    Those who favour migrants do not have the word expats in their vocabulary.

    If a country needs more labour then use expats but DO NOT grant them citizenship nor to any children born in the country. The expats leave when they are no longer required or on reaching retirement age.
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    (Original post by Josb)
    Germany is the only major economy with a budget surplus. They have a huge trade surplus. Unemployment is almost non existent (except in ex-RDA); the youth unemployment is one of the lowest in the West. They fund their pensions with a significant margin. Universities are completely free. Housing and rents represent a third of British prices.

    It seems they are doing very fine with an ageing population.

    To everybody saying "look at Germany! they are committing suicide with their low birthrate!", I answer: "look at their economic results".
    Again, its more complex than that

    Low birth rates temporarily benefit the economy, since they reduce the number of child dependants. However, this is eventually offset by the growing elderly population.

    Germany has a huge trade surplus - and that is not a good sign. It shows they have low domestic demand, and rely on exports for their economic growth, especially to the cooling markets of China and the developing world.

    They also have large immigration, and in European countries there is a general brain drain towards Germany, which also offsets the problem. Its also what I am arguing for - lets not pretend that Germany hasn't benefited from millions of immigrants over the years.


    This is Germany's population pyramid (more of a population diamond, tbh). Atm, we have a lot of people in the 45-54 age range. Just wait until they reach retirement, and they rely on the dwindling working population to sustain them - it will be a different story, unless we see substantially more immigration, or the million refugees stay. Just because things are going well now doesn't mean they always will, and that is a ridiculous argument to make. Indeed, I could very well use Japan and Italy as counterexamples.
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    (Original post by Arran90)
    Those who favour migrants do not have the word expats in their vocabulary.

    If a country needs more labour then use expats but DO NOT grant them citizenship nor to any children born in the country. The expats leave when they are no longer required or on reaching retirement age.
    This

    It gives us the benefits of the migrant population, and none of the downsides - we don't have to support their children, or them when they age.

    However, I do think Germany tried this at one point - they had a large number of Guest Workers from Turkey, who have now settled down in Germany.
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    (Original post by Johann von Gauss)
    Again, its more complex than that

    Low birth rates temporarily benefit the economy, since they reduce the number of child dependants. However, this is eventually offset by the growing elderly population.
    Not if they have made some provisions by capitalising.

    (Original post by Johann von Gauss)
    Germany has a huge trade surplus - and that is not a good sign. It shows they have low domestic demand, and rely on exports for their economic growth, especially to the cooling markets of China and the developing world.
    Yeah, a trade surplus is not a good sign. :rolleyes:

    It simply means they have very good companies.
    (Original post by Johann von Gauss)
    They also have large immigration, and in European countries there is a general brain drain towards Germany, which also offsets the problem. Its also what I am arguing for - lets not pretend that Germany hasn't benefited from millions of immigrants over the years.
    I completely agree that Germany has benefited from immigration - and will have to rely on it in the future.
    However the immigrants that have come there were not of the same standard as the Syrians. Most were Spaniards, Italians, French, Czech, etc., highly educated (many engineers) and most had a job offer before arriving.

    At best, the Syrian immigrants can speak a few words of English...

    (Original post by Johann von Gauss)
    This is Germany's population pyramid (more of a population diamond, tbh). Atm, we have a lot of people in the 45-54 age range. Just wait until they reach retirement, and they rely on the dwindling working population to sustain them - it will be a different story, unless we see substantially more immigration, or the million refugees stay. Just because things are going well now doesn't mean they always will, and that is a ridiculous argument to make. Indeed, I could very well use Japan and Italy as counterexamples.
    I can use the counterexample of France, which has the best fertility rate in Europe, but terrible economic performances.
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    (Original post by Josb)
    Not if they have made some provisions by capitalising.
    Provisions? The growing elderly population is not a temporary problem, it will only get worse (bar a cold spell)


    Yeah, a trade surplus is not a good sign. :rolleyes:

    It simply means they have very good companies.
    They have similar GDP per capita to the UK and France, but much more of it is from exports. That means that their domestic demand is lower - and that is a bad sign.

    I can use the counterexample of France, which has the best fertility rate in Europe, but terrible economic performances.
    High fertility rates don't necessarily lead to good economic performance, but very low fertility rates combined with low immigration definitely will eventually. If Germany had France's fertility rate, they would doubtless be in a much better position economically. Also, AFAIK, France has slightly higher productivity than Germany - that is, more GDP per hour worked.

    Before the economic crash, it was Germany, not France, who was known as 'the sick man of Europe'. That has changed since the crash, but it is clearly only temporary, and will last until their baby boomers go into retirement, and the global economy returns to normal - their export focus and low wages (no minimum wage) helped them weather the crisis, and an increased flow of migrants from other EU countries boosted their workforce (at the expense of the sources of those migrants, of course).
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    Youth unemployment is a serious problem in Europe although it is significantly lower in Germany than in other EU countries. I strongly believe that the youth unemployment (and underemployment) issue needs to be addressed before even thinking about issues like an ageing population or a dwindling working population.
 
 
 
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