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Would Leicester winning the title be the biggest surprise in football history? Watch

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    (Original post by richpanda)
    Barcelona at the Nou Camp, down to 10 men with Messi about to take a penalty. You must admit at that moment everyone pretty much thought it was over, I'm not even a Chelsea fan.
    Question was about 'shock' though. If you had told me Chelsea were going to win the champs league that year I would have said you were nuts, but it's not totally in comprehensible. It's a cup, and they had plenty of top players.

    If one year ago you had told me Leicester would win the league this year, there is no way in a million years I would ever possibly agree with you. It's not just that they are too, it's that they are top after being dead and buried at this point last year, and written off totally again once they appointed Ranieri.
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    How about Frankie Dettoris magnificent 7?

    25,000 -1
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    Ok then,

    Charlton 7 Huddersfield 6. 1957

    Huddersfield were 5-1 up in the 63rd minute.
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    Incidentally Nottm Forests odds to win the first division on their first season after promotion was I believe 33-1

    Therefore it would be reasonable to say that the chances of them winning it in 3 years was about 10-1 (less in fact since they would be be expected to steadily improve under Clough and with more money)

    I think we can also say that the chances of them being promoted in 2 years from the second division under Clough were 10-1.

    Thus that gives us total odds of winning the first division in 5 years as 120-1. (11*11) -1

    But I think it reasonable to say 100-1


    So now we need to multiply that by the chance of them winning the European cup twice.

    Of course this is a related event.

    Not just because a team that has won the first division containing the European Cup holders is clearly well capable of winning the European Cup but because once it has won one cup it's at least as capable of winning a second.Not to mention winning one cup automatically qualifying you for the next.


    Thus I'd say odds of winning two European Cups having already won the league was about 10-1


    Hence 1000-1 approx





    However seeing as I've only had one coffee so far there's bound to be a big flaw in that.

    Just food for thought if anyone's bored or interested in the history of this wonderful game.



    Of course the mighty Clough did it in 5 years but there's no allowing for genius


    Edit I think on having another cup of coffee that the odds of two European Cups should be 16-1.
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    How about the odds on The Invincibles?


    What are the odds on a team going unbeaten in the Premiership?

    Of course the time period needs to be specified.

    What are the odds of any team going unbeaten next season?

    I don't have a clue but I'd have thought it's probably over 500-1.

    Though no bookie would offer that I think. As I say I could be way out though. Edit 100-1 might be closer


    Leicester are 40-1 with bet 365 next season btw!

    City are...
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    That one fan cashed out the £70k on Leicester winning the league. If they see it through, he'd have got £250,000.

    I'd love to say I'd have had the bottle and guts not to cash out, but £70,000 on the table is a lot of money and I'd definitely have taken it.
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    It's unprecedented, it's astonishing and it's a bit dodgy.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/35953447

    That or I have massive sour grapes.
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    (Original post by Multitalented me)
    I'm struggling to think of what else would compare? Perhaps even the biggest surprise in sporting history as well???
    Your knowledge of football history is poor, it seems. Read up about the 1950 World Cup, when England were beaten 1-0 by a bunch of amateurs from the USA in a group game at Belo Horizonte. The England team contained such superstars as Alf Ramsey, Billy Wright, Tom Finney, Stan Mortenson and Wilf Mannion, and Stanley Matthews was rested. Now, that was a shock.
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    Aside from Jay-Jay Okocha not being universally regarded as the greatest player of all time, closely followed by Nobby Solano, it would be up there.

    In recent memory, Greece winning the Euros was pretty shocking.
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    I still think Nottingham Forest going Promotion > League Title > European Cup > Retain European Cup in successive seasons remains the biggest shock - it's the equivalent of Norwich City winning the League this season.
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    (Original post by Supersaps)
    Certainly from how set the top 4 were looking just a few years ago.


    If you told me Leicester were going to win the league, I would be so surprised. Small teams have won the FA cup from time to time and that's been great, but to win it after playing the best football across 40 games would truly be immense.
    yeah any team can win cups with massive slices of luck (see Chelsea in 2012) but to win it over 38 games is no luck
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    (Original post by Good bloke)
    Your knowledge of football history is poor, it seems. Read up about the 1950 World Cup, when England were beaten 1-0 by a bunch of amateurs from the USA in a group game at Belo Horizonte. The England team contained such superstars as Alf Ramsey, Billy Wright, Tom Finney, Stan Mortenson and Wilf Mannion, and Stanley Matthews was rested. Now, that was a shock.
    1 game compared to 38...
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    (Original post by difeo)
    1 game compared to 38...
    A shock compared to a mild surprise.
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    (Original post by Good bloke)
    A shock compared to a mild surprise.
    USA were only 500-1 to win the whole world cup, let alone one game. Leicester were 5000-1.

    Probably the worst shout in this thread tbh
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    When would you guys have cashed in if you did make the 5000-1 bet? I would have went all the way. :yep:
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    (Original post by Roxy1331)
    When would you guys have cashed in if you did make the 5000-1 bet? I would have went all the way. :yep:

    I actually cashed in an accumulator bet that had Leicester in it at 8-1 for a pittance


    At the time Middlesbrough,Bayer Leverkusen and one other team were doing really badly but they're all doing fine now and the bet would be worth ten times as much.

    However I still have 3 bets involving Leicester 2 of which have the Leicester/Spurs forecast at 16-1.

    The whole bets are doing fine except for Plymouth and I may have to make a very tough call in the play offs. I'm inclined to cash out as I just don't think Plymouth will be promoted. But if I cash out they probably will,ha.

    Anyway I think Arsenal will pip Spurs for second so releiving me of the problem.
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    (Original post by difeo)
    USA were only 500-1 to win the whole world cup, let alone one game. Leicester were 5000-1.

    Probably the worst shout in this thread tbh
    You perhaps don't know that betting odds are a product of how much is bet on the various outcomes. All the Americans patriotically betting on their team to win a sport they knew nothing about and hoping to beat the Europeans at their own game would have lowered their odds enormously. The team was composed of mainly amateur players and had less chance of winning than many a British works team. They were coming off seven consecutive defeats at a combined score of 2-45, including such scores against world giants as 0-5 against Northern Ireland and 0-11 against Norway.

    At the time England were the form team in world football, and had been over quite a long period, and were were 3-1 to win the tournament. They had lost only four times in 23 matches since WW2, and had thrashed Italy 4-0.

    It would be the modern equivalent of San Marino beating a full-strength Brazil.
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    Blackburn won it in the mid 90's but obviously things were different back then. I remember them winning it, but I don't remember how much of a shock it was.
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    (Original post by thunder_chunky)
    Blackburn won it in the mid 90's but obviously things were different back then. I remember them winning it, but I don't remember how much of a shock it was.
    Blackburn spent a lot of money. They finished 4th and 2nd the seasons before they won the title.
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    Btw I omitted to mention that Charlton were down to ten men having lost their Captain when they came back from 5-1 down to win 7-6!
 
 
 
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