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    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    Not at all true, fiercely eurosceptic massively outnumber fiercely pro EU, at least two to one, with the largest group being the undecided that lean in naturally due to it being the closest option to being the status quo, there are three things really that will turn it from probably close in to a close out:
    1) bad weather, get the massive group of undecided possible voters out of the picture
    2) sustained mild events that slowly pushes people away from the EU
    3) a major event the week of the referendum such that there is the significant swing to it that is still there on the day.

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    All those events will help the OUT campaign no doubt but not give them a win. The country is majority pro-EU, don't let internet warriors who are in large numbers influence your judgement on the whole population. I would go as far to say 80/20, and just watch come the referendum I'm calling it at those numbers give or take 5
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    (Original post by Omen96)
    All those events will help the OUT campaign no doubt but not give them a win. The country is majority pro-EU, don't let internet warriors who are in large numbers influence your judgement on the whole population. I would go as far to say 80/20, and just watch come the referendum I'm calling it at those numbers give or take 5
    I'm not letting the internet influence my position, I'm letting either the most or second most accurate polling data currently available do that, the data that quite clearly shows that of those who have made up their mind out outnumber in at least 2:1. Oh, there is also that thing called common sense, looking at the less accurate polling data it would not be 50:50 give or take if the majority were in, the floating voters are generally more likely to say they're leaning in than out so logic dictates out is ahead in terms of the committed.

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    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    I'm letting either the most or second most accurate polling data currently available do that
    I am afraid the polling data in this referendum is absolutely clear.

    If you ask people on the telephone Remain will win handsomely.

    If you ask people online Leave will win narrowly.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinio...hip_referendum

    Look at the ICM online and telephone polls conducted on the same days 15-17 April.

    Moreover think about this. Leave voters are on average, older, poorer and less well educated than Remain voters. Why does Leave score higher on online polls?
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    (Original post by nulli tertius)
    I am afraid the polling data in this referendum is absolutely clear.

    If you ask people on the telephone Remain will win handsomely.

    If you ask people online Leave will win narrowly.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinio...hip_referendum

    Look at the ICM online and telephone polls conducted on the same days 15-17 April.

    Moreover think about this. Leave voters are on average, older, poorer and less well educated than Remain voters. Why does Leave score higher on online polls?
    So you're saying that 1000 sample polls are more accurate than internal data with one would assume at the very least tens of thousands, if not hundreds of thousands of data points? Or the raw data where both likelihood to vote and a sliding scale for position is used rather than a simple binary system and the figures chucked out at the end? And in all instances polls we have no idea how accurate they are, but the published polls being significantly out a year ago and some pollsters even acknowledging they may still be inaccurate on something where things are quite well known in terms of who votes what and how likely to turn out etc.

    The two most accurate polls right now are going to be the internal data for vote leave and BSE, neither is publicly available. As for why leave does better in online polls is because they have a socially conservative bias, apparently, and telephone polls have a liberal bias.

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    (Original post by TheIr0nDuke)
    The power of propaganda, money and fear.

    Knew as soon as the referendum was announced that this is how it would be played.
    Yes, I think the odds for Leave winning should be much worse, but propaganda money and fear are getting in the way.
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    (Original post by nulli tertius)
    I am afraid the polling data in this referendum is absolutely clear.

    If you ask people on the telephone Remain will win handsomely.

    If you ask people online Leave will win narrowly.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinio...hip_referendum

    Look at the ICM online and telephone polls conducted on the same days 15-17 April.

    Moreover think about this. Leave voters are on average, older, poorer and less well educated than Remain voters. Why does Leave score higher on online polls?
    According to UKpollingreport, the difference comes down to motivation. Telephone polls tend not to prompt "Don't know", whereas online polls do. "Don't knows" lean "In" but are less likely to vote. "Out" voters are more sure of their views and more likely to vote, but are in the minority if everyone were to vote and be forced to make a binary choice.
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    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    So you're saying that 1000 sample polls are more accurate than internal data with one would assume at the very least tens of thousands, if not hundreds of thousands of data points? Or the raw data where both likelihood to vote and a sliding scale for position is used rather than a simple binary system and the figures chucked out at the end? And in all instances polls we have no idea how accurate they are, but the published polls being significantly out a year ago and some pollsters even acknowledging they may still be inaccurate on something where things are quite well known in terms of who votes what and how likely to turn out etc.

    The two most accurate polls right now are going to be the internal data for vote leave and BSE, neither is publicly available. As for why leave does better in online polls is because they have a socially conservative bias, apparently, and telephone polls have a liberal bias.
    There are two sorts of errors in polling; systematic errors and random fluctuation. The larger the sample size, the smaller the random fluctuation. Increasing the sample size will only endorse the error if an erroneous methodology is used to select the sample. Therefore internally commissioned polls are no better than external ones, save to the extent that size reduces random fluctuations.

    Canvas returns by campaign teams are not polls, because there is no attempt to construct a scientific sample. Canvas returns are notoriously unreliable, and are why two or more candidates often go into election day genuinely believing they have won.

    (Original post by Observatory)
    According to UKpollingreport, the difference comes down to motivation. Telephone polls tend not to prompt "Don't know", whereas online polls do. "Don't knows" lean "In" but are less likely to vote. "Out" voters are more sure of their views and more likely to vote, but are in the minority if everyone were to vote and be forced to make a binary choice.
    I have seen this. I hadn't seen the liberal/conservative bias argument to which Jimmy refers, but I have seen no compelling evidence that either is correct. Both strike me as a rationalisation rather than an explanation supported by evidence.

    You have to correct for the different demographics of internet user volunteers and landline phone users willing to answer cold calls and I think it is a leap of faith to say that pollsters have done that correctly when the consensus now is that the left leaning sample in polls before the general election was unrepresentative of left leaning voters generally.
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    (Original post by gladders)
    Yes, I think the odds for Leave winning should be much worse, but propaganda money and fear are getting in the way.
    Yes because there's plenty of establishment parties who are anti-EU.

    Dry but droll, 6/10
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    (Original post by TheIr0nDuke)
    Yes because there's plenty of establishment parties who are anti-EU.

    Dry but droll, 6/10
    Yes, because you can define 'establishment' to mean anybody you dislike hearing from. It's a nice convenient nonsense word that divests you of the need to debate substance and instead resort to ad hominems.
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    (Original post by gladders)
    Yes, because you can define 'establishment' to mean anybody you dislike hearing from. It's a nice convenient nonsense word that divests you of the need to debate substance and instead resort to ad hominems.
    No, it's a fact that every pro-EU party (which is all of them besides UKIP) is an establishment party. I've debated plenty on the EU with dreck on TSR but the Remain camp choose to remain ignorant.

    Also, learn the definition of ad hominem, cuckold.
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    (Original post by TheIr0nDuke)
    What do you think the leaflet distributed by the gov. (paid for with £9mil of taxpayers money, on top of the £7mil funding restrictions) was if not propaganda?

    Newspapers advocating to leave are in the minority.

    Threat of terrorism is a perfectly valid argument for leaving. Don't see why it shouldn't be mentioned.
    Newspapers advocating leave are in the minority??????????

    What the actual **** are you on?

    Sun, Mail, (if those should even be called newspapers is a different question) Times, Telegraph for Leave
    Guardian and Mirror for In

    Security experts have argued that actually, staying in is preferable
    I don't agree with the leaflet and tbh the money could have been spent better elsewhere, but the democratically elected government is finally trying to stop the British people wandering off a cliff
    Check your facts
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    i agree
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    (Original post by TheIr0nDuke)
    No, it's a fact that every pro-EU party (which is all of them besides UKIP) is an establishment party. I've debated plenty on the EU with dreck on TSR but the Remain camp choose to remain ignorant.

    Also, learn the definition of ad hominem, cuckold.
    Is corbyn 'establishment'?
    Is Farage, the former city banker, 'non-establishment'?
    How on earth are the greens 'establishment'?
    How are Boris Johnson or Michael Gove non-establishment?
    This is an absurd argument you're making.
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    I've got a grand on Remain, at pretty crap odds. I'll make £300.

    When I went into the bookies (it was Ladbrokes) I asked the guy behind the counter what was the maximum on that market, as sometimes I have been prevented from making bests of over a few hundred quid and have had to go to a few different bokies which is a pain.

    He looked at his screen and said three thousand, Obviously thinking that this was a large sum, way beyond my means. So when I said a thousand he was visibly surprised. Almost respectful even.

    "Good luck my friend!" he said when he handed me the betting slip.

    I will be voting for Brexit and would love us to leave. But this way I feel I will win either way...

    Sadly I think my money is pretty safe. Project Fear will work on the day.
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    (Original post by TheIr0nDuke)
    No, it's a fact that every pro-EU party (which is all of them besides UKIP) is an establishment party. I've debated plenty on the EU with dreck on TSR but the Remain camp choose to remain ignorant.
    So...bleeding...what? Address their points and criticisms, otherwise you're not debating at all.

    And the notion that Farage, Gove and Johnson aren't establishment is hilarious.

    Also, learn the definition of ad hominem, cuckold.
    Cuckold...? Do you know what that means?

    And I do know the meaning. And you're committing it - instead of responding to their criticisms and concerns, you deem they can be ignored because they are 'establishment'. Well, perhaps I can deem you ignorable because you're mental.
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    (Original post by JezWeCan!)
    Sadly I think my money is pretty safe. Project Fear will work on the day.
    You mean 'Project warn people of real dangers with tons of evidence and authoritative voices to back us up', versus Project Fantasy?
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    (Original post by HanSoloLuck)
    I was under the impression the the polls showed Brexit to be favored, last time I checked it was 8 points ahead..........
    Source pls?
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    (Original post by gladders)
    You mean 'Project warn people of real dangers with tons of evidence and authoritative voices to back us up', versus Project Fantasy?
    No, I mean Project Fear.

    There is a great Private Eye front page this week. Check out Obama's bedtime story...

    http://www.private-eye.co.uk/current-issue
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    (Original post by nulli tertius)
    There are two sorts of errors in polling; systematic errors and random fluctuation. The larger the sample size, the smaller the random fluctuation. Increasing the sample size will only endorse the error if an erroneous methodology is used to select the sample. Therefore internally commissioned polls are no better than external ones, save to the extent that size reduces random fluctuations.

    Canvas returns by campaign teams are not polls, because there is no attempt to construct a scientific sample. Canvas returns are notoriously unreliable, and are why two or more candidates often go into election day genuinely believing they have won.



    I have seen this. I hadn't seen the liberal/conservative bias argument to which Jimmy refers, but I have seen no compelling evidence that either is correct. Both strike me as a rationalisation rather than an explanation supported by evidence.

    You have to correct for the different demographics of internet user volunteers and landline phone users willing to answer cold calls and I think it is a leap of faith to say that pollsters have done that correctly when the consensus now is that the left leaning sample in polls before the general election was unrepresentative of left leaning voters generally.
    The liberal conservative bias one was presented on news night a few weeks back to explain the discrepancy between phone and online polls, as well as mentioning the general lack of DK with phones. I would say I took it with a pinch of salt because I imagine they will look for things to fit the discrepancy rather than that caused it, but it was a case of looking at the British Attitudes Survey and comparing that to similar questions in phone and online polls

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