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    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    And as various people including economists and former chancellors, we can't even accurately predict what state the economy will be in in 14 months, so how the hell can Osborne and his civil servants say with such precision what will happen in 14 years?
    Not to mention Osbournes hopeless economic predictions in his tenure . Guy cant predict what will happen next week let alone 2030
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    (Original post by Betelgeuse-)
    Not to mention Osbournes hopeless economic predictions in his tenure . Guy cant predict what will happen next week let alone 2030
    And it gets better, they're using a discredited methodology.
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    (Original post by ChaoticButterfly)
    Wow. They got some equations. Therefore they must be correct.

    They had equations pre credit meltdown of 2008. Not a single one even allowed 2008 to happen. It wasn't a possible outcome of the equations.




    My equation proves Brexit will be large success :top:
    There is an argument from ignorance but this is an argument for ignorance.
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    (Original post by Bornblue)
    Jeez I agree with Osborne, something I never thought I'd say.
    The out campaign have no idea and no plan for what we'd do if we left apart from 'lets sign all these wonderful trade deals'.
    And I agree with you.............

    Though probably the worst one is "well, Norway and Switzerland do fine, why can't we?" like Britain is comparable in any way to a country with a minute population and loads of oil and a country which exists basically as a bank. My flatmate uses this one all the time. It's infuriating.

    Just this morning he posted some meme about how much the money we pay into the EU would be if we added it up over 20 years or whatever, completely ignoring how that cost isn't even far more than what Norway pays for access to the market. "yeah, but trade deals, mang, ya know?"
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    (Original post by KimKallstrom)
    And I agree with you.............

    Though probably the worst one is "well, Norway and Switzerland do fine, why can't we?" like Britain is comparable in any way to a country with a minute population and loads of oil and a country which exists basically as a bank. My flatmate uses this one all the time. It's infuriating.

    Just this morning he posted some meme about how much the money we pay into the EU would be if we added it up over 20 years or whatever, completely ignoring how that cost isn't even far more than what Norway pays for access to the market. "yeah, but trade deals, mang, ya know?"
    On the flip side you get the inners pretending that Switzerland and Norway, two tiny countries, are the only countries with FTAs and represent the only possible models for FTAs, despite dozens of countries having or negotiating deals, each being unique.
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    (Original post by KimKallstrom)
    And I agree with you.............

    Though probably the worst one is "well, Norway and Switzerland do fine, why can't we?" like Britain is comparable in any way to a country with a minute population and loads of oil and a country which exists basically as a bank. My flatmate uses this one all the time. It's infuriating.

    Just this morning he posted some meme about how much the money we pay into the EU would be if we added it up over 20 years or whatever, completely ignoring how that cost isn't even far more than what Norway pays for access to the market. "yeah, but trade deals, mang, ya know?"
    I thought you were a brexiter?!
    I must say I've actually been impressed with Cameron on the eu, he's been measured and reasonable and didn't take the easy option of siding with the populist out campaign, despite being opposed by a lot of his party.

    He will be a big loss to the Tories because he isn't toxic or marmite, even I find it hard to hate him like I do Osborne or Boris.
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    (Original post by ChaoticButterfly)
    Wow. They got some equations. Therefore they must be correct.

    They had equations pre credit meltdown of 2008. Not a single one even allowed 2008 to happen. It wasn't a possible outcome of the equations.




    My equation proves Brexit will be large success :top:
    To be fair, most people who worked in banking knew 2008 was coming. It's economists who usually don't have a clue. That's why there's that phrase: "the only people who know less than politicians about economics are economists".

    Sometimes you just need a bit of common sense and academics generally have next to none. In that regard I'll give these Brexit guys credit. Most of them went against the perceived wisdom that joining the Euro was a great idea and that only small-minded, ignorant yokels disagreed. A lot of these people on the "in" side are the very same who were telling us the Euro would be a great move.
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    (Original post by Bornblue)
    I thought you were a brexiter?!
    I must say I've actually been impressed with Cameron on the eu, he's been measured and reasonable and didn't take the easy option of siding with the populist out campaign, despite being opposed by a lot of his party.

    He will be a big loss to the Tories because he isn't toxic or marmite, even I find it hard to hate him like I do Osborne or Boris.
    No, but I can see reasons to leave for sure. I just think they're outweighed by the plus sides of being in the EU. I wish it was more democratic but let's face it, it wouldn't have even been a thing if democracy was a factor.

    I see nation states going the same way as the city states and Germanic states of old.

    Yes, Cameron is a huge asset to the party. Especially when - like you say - other potential leaders are hardly election material. Can you imagine Michael Gove for example being as agreeable a candidate as Cameron? I say agreeable as opposed to popular since he's no Tony Blair or Thatcher but anybody who thinks he's not extremely capable as well as being a good candidate with the correct profile for statesmanhood is blinded by partisanship and hatred.

    Having said that, like I said in the other thread, if it's a Brexit, his position as leader is untenable.
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    (Original post by KimKallstrom)
    No, but I can see reasons to leave for sure. I just think they're outweighed by the plus sides of being in the EU. I wish it was more democratic but let's face it, it wouldn't have even been a thing if democracy was a factor.

    I see nation states going the same way as the city states and Germanic states of old.

    Yes, Cameron is a huge asset to the party. Especially when - like you say - other potential leaders are hardly election material. Can you imagine Michael Gove for example being as agreeable a candidate as Cameron? I say agreeable as opposed to popular since he's no Tony Blair or Thatcher but anybody who thinks he's not extremely capable as well as being a good candidate with the correct profile for statesmanhood is blinded by partisanship and hatred.

    Having said that, like I said in the other thread, if it's a Brexit, his position as leader is untenable.
    I think being agreeable rather than hugely popular in some ways is a help. Because the likes of Blair and thatcher who were extremely popular with some, were extremely unpopular with many too. Whereas while no one really loves cmeron, not many really hate him so he picks up a lot of floaters, or rather doesn't put them off.

    What are your views on johnson btw? Electorally (assuming Corbyn goes) and also generally?
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    (Original post by KimKallstrom)
    No, but I can see reasons to leave for sure. I just think they're outweighed by the plus sides of being in the EU. I wish it was more democratic but let's face it, it wouldn't have even been a thing if democracy was a factor.
    That final part implies that the political union is inherently necessary and simply being a trade bloc is insufficient. As Boris says in his speech at rallies, if the EU didn't exist and the French and Germans offered us access into this new project we wouldn't need a referendum to tell then we're not interested, the main argument to remain is little more than a sunk cost fallacy; but the very same thing is why people are so accepting of austerity, the reason people stay in bad relationships, the reason we have returned to Conservative majority governance.

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    So Gove this morning when asked what we'd do outside the eu, said we could sign a deal like Canada. When he was told that Canada have to pay tariffs on many goods, he said we don't have to be like Canada'
    You couldn't make it up, the out campaign have no idea and no plans for what we would do outside the eu.

    As Cameron says, their tactic is leave and hope for the best.
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    Releasing the maths of it all (though flawed somewhat, most economic models are insufficiently dynamic) seems to have been a good move. The Brexit camp have mainly whinged with no real comeback.

    That said, the public won't understand it albeit the In camp is still likely to win comfortably.
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    (Original post by Rakas21)
    Releasing the maths of it all (though flawed somewhat, most economic models are insufficiently dynamic) seems to have been a good move. The Brexit camp have mainly whinged with no real comeback.

    That said, the public won't understand it albeit the In camp is still likely to win comfortably.
    Anybody I meet saying in will win comfortably I am always inclined to try to get a definition of comfortably and bet a hundred quid or something on it

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    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    Anybody I meet saying in will win comfortably I am always inclined to try to get a definition of comfortably and bet a hundred quid or something on it

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    Something like 55-45. Telephone polls average a fair lead and i don't feel the public know or care much to take us out.
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    (Original post by Rakas21)
    Something like 55-45. Telephone polls average a fair lead and i don't feel the public know or care much to take us out.
    No chance about it, and very significant portions of the public really do care enough. Telephone polls also would appear to overstate remain on the whole and understate leave, albeit not as much as some suggest online does the other way around

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