Hey there! Sign in to join this conversationNew here? Join for free
x Turn on thread page Beta
    • Political Ambassador
    Offline

    21
    ReputationRep:
    Political Ambassador
    (Original post by Maker)
    It would depend on what the terms are and if both countries can agree. Each country will do anything to try to get a more advantageous terms so things could get a bit difficult if lots of countries decide to play hardball and trade grinds to a halt.
    If we take the remain attitude to things surely we would have no problem, the biggest partner outside the EU is Turkey with half our GDP and I imagine little trade.

    Posted from TSR Mobile
    Offline

    20
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    If we take the remain attitude to things surely we would have no problem, the biggest partner outside the EU is Turkey with half our GDP and I imagine little trade.

    Posted from TSR Mobile
    I don't understand your point.
    • Political Ambassador
    Offline

    21
    ReputationRep:
    Political Ambassador
    (Original post by Maker)
    I don't understand your point.
    We keep being told we'd be ****ed over outside the EU because we would only be the fifth biggest economy, so surely when negotiating with the tiny countries we would have to deal with that the EU has FTAs with we would have no problems, after all the worst we have to deal with is a struggling country with half our GDP, and a great many countries with half again.

    Posted from TSR Mobile
    Offline

    20
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    We keep being told we'd be ****ed over outside the EU because we would only be the fifth biggest economy, so surely when negotiating with the tiny countries we would have to deal with that the EU has FTAs with we would have no problems, after all the worst we have to deal with is a struggling country with half our GDP, and a great many countries with half again.

    Posted from TSR Mobile
    Some countries will do anything to get an advantage. America and the EU have taken China to the WTO court to get China to reduce tariffs on imported cars. Even small countries might play hardball if the EU backs them up.
    Offline

    2
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by Maker)
    I don't think the EU will just sit there and let Britain take trade away from them after Brexit.

    The EU will most likely renegotiate their trade agreements with other countries to try to take trade away from Britain by offering better trade terms such as better access to the EU and lower tariffs.

    The EU would also take steps to lure businesses such as finance and manufacturing away from Britain by imposing higher tariffs and giving tax incentives to relocate away from Britain and into the EU.
    But the EU is a socialist construct, it's hardly going to abandon all of that if Britain leaves. Especially given as those tariffs are highly necessary for, as an example, Poland's steel industry. If the EU starts hacking away at steel tariffs, the European market will be flooded with subsidised chinese steel, which would be horrific for Poland amongst others. And that's just one example. Those tariffs are largely in place to protect European economies. For us, tariffs are less important as Britain makes most of her money in high-end areas; the services sector and specialist production. Whereas lots of Europe is heavily reliant on raw material production, so the EU is never going to make any real inroads to its tariffs.

    You said that the EU would lower tariffs, then in the very next paragraph said they could raise tariffs? I'm confused. Regardless, how on earth is the EU going to fund lowering taxes and tariffs? They would have just lost their second biggest economy (soon to be biggest according to most predictions) which would have a major effect on the euro, not to mention they'd remain in the grip of the current migration crisis. And it's not like they could ask members to pay more, given how rife euroscepticism is across Europe, but most critically in France. I think the EU would be in a real hole, cause I don't see how they could avoid a further splintering.
    Offline

    20
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by Luke Kostanjsek)
    But the EU is a socialist construct, it's hardly going to abandon all of that if Britain leaves. Especially given as those tariffs are highly necessary for, as an example, Poland's steel industry. If the EU starts hacking away at steel tariffs, the European market will be flooded with subsidised chinese steel, which would be horrific for Poland amongst others. And that's just one example. Those tariffs are largely in place to protect European economies. For us, tariffs are less important as Britain makes most of her money in high-end areas; the services sector and specialist production. Whereas lots of Europe is heavily reliant on raw material production, so the EU is never going to make any real inroads to its tariffs.

    You said that the EU would lower tariffs, then in the very next paragraph said they could raise tariffs? I'm confused. Regardless, how on earth is the EU going to fund lowering taxes and tariffs? They would have just lost their second biggest economy (soon to be biggest according to most predictions) which would have a major effect on the euro, not to mention they'd remain in the grip of the current migration crisis. And it's not like they could ask members to pay more, given how rife euroscepticism is across Europe, but most critically in France. I think the EU would be in a real hole, cause I don't see how they could avoid a further splintering.
    The EU would raise tariffs for UK exports and cut them for none UK exports. The EU is hardly a socialist construct, its for business and wealth.

    Poland is a developing country and needs to get away from making commodities like steel as Britain has done.
    • Political Ambassador
    Offline

    21
    ReputationRep:
    Political Ambassador
    (Original post by Maker)
    The EU would raise tariffs for UK exports and cut them for none UK exports. The EU is hardly a socialist construct, its for business and wealth.

    Poland is a developing country and needs to get away from making commodities like steel as Britain has done.
    You mean increase them to WTO levels where our eu export tariffs would still be less than our net EU contribution?

    Posted from TSR Mobile
    Offline

    20
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    You mean increase them to WTO levels where our eu export tariffs would still be less than our net EU contribution?

    Posted from TSR Mobile
    I don't think firms like Toyota gives a toss how much EU contributions are, they don't pay them. If they have trouble selling their UK made cars in the EU due to high tariffs, they will relocate to the EU especially if they are offered incentives like tax breaks.

    The UK government might give them subsidies but that might run foul of WTO rules on state subsidies and the EU raise tariffs even more.
    Offline

    17
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    If anything that would probably help their own nationalists given it gives them the "look how petty your leaders are," in exactlythe same way that we can say "do you really want to be in a club that throws their toys out if the pram and cut their own nose off to spite their face if they don't get their own way."

    Posted from TSR Mobile
    Exactly. Plus, if they try to sabotage us, it'd hurt them which would also help fuel their disillusionment and want for change due to their now worse economy.
    • Political Ambassador
    Offline

    21
    ReputationRep:
    Political Ambassador
    (Original post by Maker)
    I don't think firms like Toyota gives a toss how much EU contributions are, they don't pay them. If they have trouble selling their UK made cars in the EU due to high tariffs, they will relocate to the EU especially if they are offered incentives like tax breaks.

    The UK government might give them subsidies but that might run foul of WTO rules on state subsidies and the EU raise tariffs even more.
    So you're saying that multi billion pound investments will be abandoned, having being made with the threat of exit and thus potential for tariffs, just because it does come about? Hell, if we throw in the doom and gloom pound value loss it makes it CHEAPER for them to export to the eu from the UK even with the tariffs

    Posted from TSR Mobile
    Offline

    2
    ReputationRep:
    Isn't trudeau that retard who hits women in parliament and leaves his country to burn, refusing help from usa and russia?
    • Political Ambassador
    Offline

    21
    ReputationRep:
    Political Ambassador
    (Original post by EuanF)
    Isn't trudeau that retard who hits women in parliament and leaves his country to burn, refusing help from usa and russia?
    Yeah, the guy that believes in equality of outcome

    Posted from TSR Mobile
    Offline

    20
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    So you're saying that multi billion pound investments will be abandoned, having being made with the threat of exit and thus potential for tariffs, just because it does come about? Hell, if we throw in the doom and gloom pound value loss it makes it CHEAPER for them to export to the eu from the UK even with the tariffs

    Posted from TSR Mobile
    Factories are temporary facilities, they need constant improvement and investment to make them productive and the costs are offset against tax anyway. Every few years, the factories becomes obsolete and needs retooling for new models and the choice becomes do I make a big investment in the UK where tariffs are high or invest in the EU where there are no tariffs.

    A weak pound does not necessarily make exports cheaper because you have to buy in raw materials and components from outside the UK and pay usually in US dollars for them so a weak exchange rate makes these more expensive. A weak pound does not have that many benefits considering most essential commodities like oil and food stuffs are priced in dollars so you get high inflation.

    Even home grown food becomes more expensive because you need a lot of oil to grow and process it.
    • Political Ambassador
    Offline

    21
    ReputationRep:
    Political Ambassador
    (Original post by Maker)
    Factories are temporary facilities, they need constant improvement and investment to make them productive and the costs are offset against tax anyway. Every few years, the factories becomes obsolete and needs retooling for new models and the choice becomes do I make a big investment in the UK where tariffs are high or invest in the EU where there are no tariffs.

    A weak pound does not necessarily make exports cheaper because you have to buy in raw materials and components from outside the UK and pay usually in US dollars for them so a weak exchange rate makes these more expensive. A weak pound does not have that many benefits considering most essential commodities like oil and food stuffs are priced in dollars so you get high inflation.

    Even home grown food becomes more expensive because you need a lot of oil to grow and process it.
    So which is cheaper, upgrading a factory several times, or rebuilding the factory in a completely different country? And if a weak currency is so awful for exports you might want to explain something to the Germany given the main reason they keep bailing out the likes of Greece, Italy, and Spain is to keep the euro weak.

    Posted from TSR Mobile
    Offline

    20
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by KimKallstrom)
    I'd actually consider it an insult if Justin
    Trudeau agreed with me on anything. I feel dirty that we're both pro-EU. He's everything that's wrong with the modern West.
    Why?
    Offline

    20
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    So which is cheaper, upgrading a factory several times, or rebuilding the factory in a completely different country? And if a weak currency is so awful for exports you might want to explain something to the Germany given the main reason they keep bailing out the likes of Greece, Italy, and Spain is to keep the euro weak.

    Posted from TSR Mobile
    Toyota has factories in France and Portugal so they could expand those and shrink the ones in the UK. There is always a bit of a bidding war when companies make big investments to see which country or locality can offer the best deal. The location of a big factory is not a big deal as long as the money is right.

    A weak Euro is certainly good for German exports, but the UK is a net importer of EU goods so its bad.
    Offline

    18
    ReputationRep:
    Canada is a liberal hellhole anyway. we dont want them doing deals with us, they are not good enough for traditionalists like great britain. they can go **** themselves with their french ancestors.
    Offline

    2
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by Maker)
    The EU would raise tariffs for UK exports and cut them for none UK exports. The EU is hardly a socialist construct, its for business and wealth.

    Poland is a developing country and needs to get away from making commodities like steel as Britain has done.
    But then the UK responds in kind, and given our huge trade deficit with the EU it's countries like France and Poland who will lose out most, galvanising the eurosceptics who are already making headway in these countries. Especially when you consider that Britain will find it easier to make trade deals with new countries than France or Poland will, as they would still be forced to impose the tariffs the EU necessitates. Britain essentially has more ways to play hardball at the negotiating table than the EU. We could threaten to deport all the EU residents if push came to shove.

    You still haven't come up with how the EU funds tax and tariff cuts, as well as the migrant crisis, without pushing the euroscepticism of other countries past breaking point. And all this whilst losing the second biggest economy it contains. It doesn't seem feasible.

    The EU is most definitely a socialist construct; it's practically a communist construct. You can argue that the EEC, which preceded the EU, was designed to allow for prospering business. But the EU is vehemently anti-capitalism. The man who provided the inspiration for the Maastricht Treaty was Altiero Spinelli, an Italian communist. And just look at the policies it enforces on our banks (and more broadly the services sector in general), the bureaucracy it demands, it's desire to redistribute wealth from the richer countries to the poorer. It's in no way business friendly. Whilst free trade is undoubtedly an aid to business, the political interference is most definitely negative.

    Is China a developing country? Cause they seem to be doing alright with steel, being the world's second biggest economy and all. There's nothing wrong with having an economy based on the primary business sector, it just leaves you vulnerable to competition. Which is precisely why the EU is unlikely to start lowering tariffs; it would be cutting their nose off, to spite their face, so to speak.
    Offline

    20
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by Luke Kostanjsek)
    But then the UK responds in kind, and given our huge trade deficit with the EU it's countries like France and Poland who will lose out most, galvanising the eurosceptics who are already making headway in these countries. Especially when you consider that Britain will find it easier to make trade deals with new countries than France or Poland will, as they would still be forced to impose the tariffs the EU necessitates. Britain essentially has more ways to play hardball at the negotiating table than the EU. We could threaten to deport all the EU residents if push came to shove.

    You still haven't come up with how the EU funds tax and tariff cuts, as well as the migrant crisis, without pushing the euroscepticism of other countries past breaking point. And all this whilst losing the second biggest economy it contains. It doesn't seem feasible.

    The EU is most definitely a socialist construct; it's practically a communist construct. You can argue that the EEC, which preceded the EU, was designed to allow for prospering business. But the EU is vehemently anti-capitalism. The man who provided the inspiration for the Maastricht Treaty was Altiero Spinelli, an Italian communist. And just look at the policies it enforces on our banks (and more broadly the services sector in general), the bureaucracy it demands, it's desire to redistribute wealth from the richer countries to the poorer. It's in no way business friendly. Whilst free trade is undoubtedly an aid to business, the political interference is most definitely negative.

    Is China a developing country? Cause they seem to be doing alright with steel, being the world's second biggest economy and all. There's nothing wrong with having an economy based on the primary business sector, it just leaves you vulnerable to competition. Which is precisely why the EU is unlikely to start lowering tariffs; it would be cutting their nose off, to spite their face, so to speak.
    Britain has less chance of playing hardball because a lot of businesses would want a quick conclusion to any trade negotiations so the UK government would have to make more compromises than if the it had more time. I very much doubt the UK would even threaten to deport EU nationals, the EU could retaliate and deport UK nationals and no one wins. I don't think any UK government would want a million plus pissed off voters forced to return to the UK.

    The EU can fund lowering tariffs by increasing tariffs on UK exports.

    All national governments redistributes wealth, George Osbourne has been going on about investing to create the Northern Powerhouse ad nauseam. I don't think he is a commie. The banks screwed up and lost control of their activities, they needed to be reined. Its actually more less communist to do that because otherwise, the taxpayer will have to pick up the bill to bail out the banks again.

    Countries that want to be developed need to get away from trying to compete in commodity sectors with low cost, low regulation countries like China because its always a race to the bottom.
    Offline

    2
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by Maker)
    Britain has less chance of playing hardball because a lot of businesses would want a quick conclusion to any trade negotiations so the UK government would have to make more compromises than if the it had more time. I very much doubt the UK would even threaten to deport EU nationals, the EU could retaliate and deport UK nationals and no one wins. I don't think any UK government would want a million plus pissed off voters forced to return to the UK.

    The EU can fund lowering tariffs by increasing tariffs on UK exports.

    All national governments redistributes wealth, George Osbourne has been going on about investing to create the Northern Powerhouse ad nauseam. I don't think he is a commie. The banks screwed up and lost control of their activities, they needed to be reined. Its actually more less communist to do that because otherwise, the taxpayer will have to pick up the bill to bail out the banks again.

    Countries that want to be developed need to get away from trying to compete in commodity sectors with low cost, low regulation countries like China because its always a race to the bottom.
    Everybody wants a quick conclusion to the negotiations, but Britain's strong services sector combined with the comparative weakness of the eurozone economies mean that they will feel the pinch first. I mean, Greece is still on the verge of defaulting; protracted exit negotiations and the uncertainty that brings will make it nigh on impossible to keep the euro afloat. I think the negotiations will be finished pretty swiftly, because everyone loses if they aren't. And Britain is in a better shape to handle economic uncertainty than the weaker eurozone countries, which means that the EU is on the back foot in any negotiations.

    I too doubt that we would do so; it was a hypothetical response to the incredibly unlikely event that the EU decides to slap huge tariffs on British exports. Everybody loses, which is why it won't happen.

    The EU cannot fund lowering tariffs to the rest of the world simply by raising tariffs on British goods, unless such tariffs were so extortionate that they would fail to raise any money regardless. And that's notwithstanding the fact that there's a cat in hell's chance that the EU will lower tariffs on foreign raw materials, because it would massacre the Polish and French economies, amongst others.

    Of course they redistribute wealth, but within their own area of interest. No sovereign British government is going to take money from our banks to give to Romanian farmers. And the fiscal union being proposed for eurozone countries is far from business-friendly. Ironically, it'll end up doing Britain a favour as it'll be the only European country that the services sector can conceivably base themselves.

    I agree, but dropping these countries in at the deep end by removing tariffs on foreign commodities is hardly a viable solution. It rather sums up the problems of the EU; linking together economies of different sizes with different agendas, and trying to govern them all in an identical manner, is a fundamentally flawed approach. Policies that will benefit a country whose economy is dominated by primary sector industries, will never be functional for a country whose economic output stems from the services sector.
 
 
 
Poll
Do you like carrot cake?
Useful resources

Groups associated with this forum:

View associated groups

The Student Room, Get Revising and Marked by Teachers are trading names of The Student Room Group Ltd.

Register Number: 04666380 (England and Wales), VAT No. 806 8067 22 Registered Office: International House, Queens Road, Brighton, BN1 3XE

Write a reply...
Reply
Hide
Reputation gems: You get these gems as you gain rep from other members for making good contributions and giving helpful advice.