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Government accept Brexit is best in the long run Watch

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    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    Thinking about the latest treasury report it is surely implying that in the long run Britain will be BETTER OFF out. If we have over the next decade and a half relative contraction of 6% from exit, and next year we have a recession all year that implies half that relative contraction comes next year. Then if we add the compound effect of that almost all of the lower growth comes from next year. If we further consider that the lower growth will continue for a few years would this not put us maybe 10% or more down?

    So of we assume a year long recession and a lower level of growth for a few hears could lead to maybe a 10% net lower growth, how do we get to only 6% in 14 years time? Well obviously even the treasury is admitting that in the medium to long term growth will be stronger outside the EU.
    I saw the same thing on the daily politics yesterday and thought errr hang on that means we're growing stronger than your in figures after the initial period.




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    (Original post by TheTechN1304)
    It's ironic you're saying the brexit campaign has been awful, when the stay campaign has simply been the government spewing out pro-EU propaganda and using scare tactics to make people vote stay.

    The 'alternative' is the UK being a free country, able to make its own laws and trade freely with other countries. My main issue with the EU is that it is incredibly undemocratic (which is why it's so ironic the people who are voting to stay are the same people who complain about not being represented by the tories) and it's a failing institution that holds too much power.

    I'm not stupid enough to think there are no risks in leaving. In the short term at least, I imagine it will have quite a negative effect.

    Whether or not we leave though, I don't see the EU surviving for that much longer anyway. It's a case of jumping off the sinking ship early, or going down with the ship...
    Yet it's the leave campaign who've been playing the Hitler card...
    A free country? Oh do me a favour.
    That's not an alternative. No country is 'free' and any treaty we make will involve compromise.

    Can you name one law the European Union has stopped us making? Or one EU law you dislike?
    Of course you can't.
    Which trade deals will we sign? Of course you have no idea. Your tactic is to jump off a cliff and hope you land on something soft.
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    (Original post by Michael3C)
    I've reported you twice now for some of your outrageous posts which are bringing this board down. Nobody is entertained by your repugnance and generalisations, and now labelling somebody a bigot with zero basis? It's pretty shocking behaviour.
    Since when is calling someone a bigot offensive, much less "shocking"?

    And nice irony there. Another example why I personally am very much entertained by interacting with you on here
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    (Original post by inhuman)
    No.You are assuming that because it is higher at some point in the future, it will stay higher.
    There are a few ways to reconcile the two reports:
    1. The first report was wrong and the worst case scenario is even worse than the treasury predicted, which it itself far worse than other independent analyses from remainers
    2. This second report is wrong, and in fact there will be no year long recession, just lower growth but growth none the less
    3. Both reports are wrong
    4. Britain is a case that will be studied for decades as a country that went within a quarter or two from a full blown year long recession to ordinary levels of growth
    5. We experience a fairly normal recovery that takes a couple of years and then have a few years with significantly higher growth to compensate
    6. We undergo a normal recession in that recover is not instantaneous and then we have sustained growth marginally higher
    We can immediately discount options 1, 2, and 3 given that we are working on the basis that the treasury is infallible and so both reports must be correct, which leaves us with options 4, 5, and 6. Between these scenarios and the calculations given below we get a worst case scenario of exit making us no worse off. If we assume case 4, the most absurd of the three, we look at growth being an average of less than 0.1% lower. If we assume case 5 then we have proof that growth can be higher outside, but again, unless we then drop down to roughly equal growth the boom must be an unprecedented one. Or we go for option 6 whereby the compounded effect of the recovery has longer term slight boosts to growth.
    (Original post by Rakas21)
    The maths of it goes that if we vote to stay then the treasury expects the economy to be 42% larger in 2030 than today. In their worst case scenario they expect growth of -1.3% in 2017 and cumulative growth of 36% by 2030 (so 37.3% actually).Simple maths suggests average growth of 3.2% from 2017-2030 along with average growth of 3.1% in the worst case scenario from 2018-2030.Unsuprisingly they confirm my view that our success and failures are our own and therefore the EU neither aids nor hamstrings us to anything like the degree of either campaign..
    You forgot it's a compound effect. If we assume that growth is stable enough we can simply take the 14th root for staying and 13th root for leaving to get average growth (something we cannot really do for leaving unless we assume case 4 above) we get the average growth if we remain to be 2.536% and if we leave to be 2.468%.

    If in the case of brexit we assume that the recovery takes just over a year, so the 2018 growth is about 1.3% that gives us 12 years to get 36% growth, again assuming the growth is stable enough to simply take roots, we get 2.595% average growth.
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    Sorry but if you bothered to write 6 scenarios, why not go on to 10 or 20? Are you sure those 6 are exhaustive?
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    (Original post by inhuman)
    Sorry but if you bothered to write 6 scenarios, why not go on to 10 or 20? Are you sure those 6 are exhaustive?
    Care to propose just one other general form then? Or is this your way of saying "I don't want to accept what you are saying?"
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    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    Care to propose just one other general form then? Or is this your way of saying "I don't want to accept what you are saying?"
    No, I just found it kind of funny that there were 6. I mean I am sure someone could find a few more if they really wanted.
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    (Original post by Bornblue)
    What a silly argument. It's fear of very real risks. It's like describing someone who won't run across a main road blindfolded of 'fearing the unknown'.

    The Brexit campaign has been awful, pathetic even. Now you're engaging in outright lies, such as claiming we don't have a veto over Turkey joining as Penny Mordaunt claimed.

    The reason we will vote to stay in is because the leave campaign have not in any way shape or form presented an alternative to the EU. Every suggestion they've made has gaping holes in it. Then when you're losing the battle, of course Boris Johnson plays the Hitler card whilst his supporters lap it up.

    We'll vote to remain and it will be a massive hit to the tory right.
    And that's one thin i'll forever be grateful to Cameron for.
    Further, it's my understanding that Germany are very much against that. I'm not 100% on the ins and outs of why exactly (perhaps to do with Germany's massive population of people of Turkish extraction - literally millions as loads of Turks were brought in as labourers to re-build the place after WW2 - meaning they'd all head there....just a guess, mind). But I've definitely heard time and time again that Germany are dead set against Turkey's ascension for whatever reason and would almost certainly veto it.

    As for Greece..............lol.

    I agree with you that you can't just dismiss real hazards and reasons for not doing something as "scaremongering" as Brexters tent to do. So the City of London - the only reason our economy is the 5th biggest in the world (as they love to remind us) - will likely lose clout as the main hub for trading in the European capital markets (if you won't take my word for it, how about the CEO of JP Morgan among many others? http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/e90885d8-d...#axzz49byASsut) ? Nah, Mane, das scaremongering yo :rolleyes:
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    (Original post by KimKallstrom)
    Further, it's my understanding that Germany are very much against that. I'm not 100% on the ins and outs of why exactly (perhaps to do with Germany's massive population of people of Turkish extraction - literally millions as loads of Turks were brought in as labourers to re-build the place after WW2 - meaning they'd all head there....just a guess, mind). But I've definitely heard time and time again that Germany are dead set against Turkey's ascension for whatever reason and would almost certainly veto it.

    As for Greece..............lol.
    Hah, we are super against Turkey. There would be riots if they let Turkey in.
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    (Original post by Bornblue)
    What a silly argument. It's fear of very real risks. It's like describing someone who won't run across a main road blindfolded of 'fearing the unknown'.

    The Brexit campaign has been awful, pathetic even. Now you're engaging in outright lies, such as claiming we don't have a veto over Turkey joining as Penny Mordaunt claimed.

    The reason we will vote to stay in is because the leave campaign have not in any way shape or form presented an alternative to the EU. Every suggestion they've made has gaping holes in it. Then when you're losing the battle, of course Boris Johnson plays the Hitler card whilst his supporters lap it up.

    We'll vote to remain and it will be a massive hit to the tory right.
    And that's one thin i'll forever be grateful to Cameron for.
    point well made.
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    (Original post by TheTechN1304)
    British people are stubborn and will vote to remian. Fear of the unknown.
    That's conservative with a small c for you XD

    Good to see a the right get a taste of their own stupid medicine :yeah:

    Those proud small c conservatives the right like to fawn over are gonna hand the EU referendum to the communist remainers. Soviet union of Europe here we come
 
 
 
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