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Would Germany go bust if the UK pulled out of the EU? Watch

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    (Original post by 999tigger)
    It may and it may not. Anything that one side does will result in retaliation by the other side. It depends what deal they negotiate.

    Your second point is stating the obvious? The impact will mean there will eb a further level of uncertainty and cost to condycting business.
    If the US can't negotiate a tariff free trade agreement, it seems unlikely Britain could.

    I think some Leavers are under the impression that after Brexit, nothing will change except we all become free people with a lot more money. That is wishful thinking
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    (Original post by Maker)
    If the US can't negotiate a tariff free trade agreement, it seems unlikely Britain could.

    I think some Leavers are under the impression that after Brexit, nothing will change except we all become free people with a lot more money. That is wishful thinking
    They arent the same though. I assume the UK will be looking more towards a deal along the line of the Swiss, but one that takes theur unique situation into account.

    The money not being sent to fund the EU seems to have been respent in several ways already. I hope it doesnt go on bureacracy and tariffs.
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    (Original post by FredOrJohn)
    So you believe Germany would not go bust but it will be severely damaged by new regulations (the UK is Germanys biggest trade partner and of course biggest export market).

    What number of Germanys do you think will end up being unemployed by us leaving?
    Well yes... But it's not only one way, right?

    UK also profits a lot from other trade deals.
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    The Euro is basically a big hoover that sucks wealth out of low productivity regions and gives it to high productivity ones, simply through the force of the exchange rate.

    Germany LOVES the EU because it has allowed it to have a currency 25-30% lower than what the Deutschmark would be if Germany was out of it. Countries like Spain, Greece and Germany have a currency that is 30-40% higher than it should be. Poor EU countries subsidise Vampire Germany to the tune of hundreds of billions of Euros every year through this mechanism.

    There are other recipients, of course. France loses out a little through this mechanism but is compensated through the CAP. The Netherlands benefits tremendously, and so do other Northern countries with high productivity.

    No wonder the Germans are so desperate for a federal Europe to permanently join countries to them, for them to suck drya. It will the sponge they squeeze others blood out of to feast on.
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    Everyone's Doc Marten supply would suffer.
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    (Original post by 999tigger)
    They arent the same though. I assume the UK will be looking more towards a deal along the line of the Swiss, but one that takes theur unique situation into account.

    The money not being sent to fund the EU seems to have been respent in several ways already. I hope it doesnt go on bureacracy and tariffs.
    I don't think Leavers will want a Swiss type trade deal if they win. The Swiss deal has to allow free movement of EU citizens although the Swiss wants to change that but the EU is not happy with it and has imposed some nonimal sanctions until its sorted.

    The Swiss also has to pay to access the Single Market so the money saved from not being in the EU will have to be spent to access the Single Market.
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    (Original post by 41b)
    The Euro is basically a big hoover that sucks wealth out of low productivity regions and gives it to high productivity ones, simply through the force of the exchange rate.

    Germany LOVES the EU because it has allowed it to have a currency 25-30% lower than what the Deutschmark would be if Germany was out of it. Countries like Spain, Greece and Germany have a currency that is 30-40% higher than it should be. Poor EU countries subsidise Vampire Germany to the tune of hundreds of billions of Euros every year through this mechanism.

    There are other recipients, of course. France loses out a little through this mechanism but is compensated through the CAP. The Netherlands benefits tremendously, and so do other Northern countries with high productivity.

    No wonder the Germans are so desperate for a federal Europe to permanently join countries to them, for them to suck drya. It will the sponge they squeeze others blood out of to feast on.
    The plus side for poorer EU countries that have the Euro is they can borrow easier and cheaper because its backed by Germany and France.
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    We run a trade deficit with most countries in the EU. We import more from them than we export, the result is Germany would have to find someone else to sell to, good luck with finding another market of 65 million consumers with as much purchasing power.

    Everyone who is saying leaving the EU would be a bad thing. We run trade deficits with most EU countries, and China. Our best trade is done with the US and other Anglo countries.
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    EU tariffs will damage short term trade, we will respond by buying from countries with lower barriers to trade, at the moment the EU depends on cheap imports from developing nations with no laws or trade unions to improve working condition, thus driving out competition. The issue is quite clear, neither the UK or EU can compete in a free market, free import economy, without having to give up the welfare laws which makes us non-competitive, since no one in this country wants to work 16 hour days for a few pounds, the solution is import tariffs, which will protect domestic industry from foreign competition. It's the only way we can keep our standard of living.
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    (Original post by Maker)
    I don't think Leavers will want a Swiss type trade deal if they win. The Swiss deal has to allow free movement of EU citizens although the Swiss wants to change that but the EU is not happy with it and has imposed some nonimal sanctions until its sorted.

    The Swiss also has to pay to access the Single Market so the money saved from not being in the EU will have to be spent to access the Single Market.
    Well at least you are on the right page about this. My understanding is that free movement of people is non negotiable if the country wants access to the single market. If the UK doesnt wnat that, then they will have to settle for a lot less. They never acknowledge this point. Perhaps they will get soemthing like a favoured nation status.
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    (Original post by Maker)
    The plus side for poorer EU countries that have the Euro is they can borrow easier and cheaper because its backed by Germany and France.
    In theory it's true. Greek bond rates were only half a percentage points higher than German or French ones before the crisis, and now they are over 7% higher, necessitating the selloff of their country and total bankruptcy. Because they're stuck in the Euro, they can't devalue, and get to get lectures by Vampire Germans who they've indirectly subsidised since they adopted the Euro
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    (Original post by Listers)
    Trade would continue, only with a bit less regulations
    (Original post by JCampos)
    I believe even with more regulations.
    I'm going to vote that the regulations would stay the same. After all, the EU isn't going to wave the rule book just because we are outside the EU. So if you want to export to the EU, there will be the same number of rules. The EU could however decide to impose import duties on certain British exports to the EU as they do with some other countries outside the EU.
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    (Original post by 41b)
    In theory it's true. Greek bond rates were only half a percentage points higher than German or French ones before the crisis, and now they are over 7% higher, necessitating the selloff of their country and total bankruptcy. Because they're stuck in the Euro, they can't devalue, and get to get lectures by Vampire Germans who they've indirectly subsidised since they adopted the Euro
    The Greeks borrowed heavily when they joined the Euro because they could get low interest rates and the lenders were under the impression the EU would not allow a default.

    It was not Germany's fault the Greeks were reckless with borrowing money they can't repay. The Greeks never collected the taxes they were suppose to and spent a lot on paying pensions to 50 year olds.

    It like blaming George Osbourne because you splurged on your credit cards and now being repossessed.
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    (Original post by Southwestern)
    This is a lie. The UK is neither Germany's biggest trade partner nor its biggest export market.

    Germany's biggest trade partner is the United States (in terms of turnover) and its biggest export market is also the United States (in terms of euros). Full data tables, again, available here.

    How many Germans would go unemployed? It's difficult to say. It depends on what 'Brexit' is - and because the 'Leave' campaign has different views on this, we don't know. See my posts above for full considerations though: it could range from, say, 10,000 Germans to 500,000 Germans (I have no economic qualifications - these are phoney numbers based on predictions for the UK). The German economy is much better adapted to change exporter away from the UK than the UK's economy is adapted to change exporter away from Germany.
    If it is a lie take it up with the DAILY TELEGRAPH (source)

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/n...t-deepens.html

    Why on earth people up ticked you and not me.
    That seems so mean.

    I did not call you a liar.

    PEople are so fickle.
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    (Original post by 999tigger)
    Well at least you are on the right page about this. My understanding is that free movement of people is non negotiable if the country wants access to the single market. If the UK doesnt wnat that, then they will have to settle for a lot less. They never acknowledge this point. Perhaps they will get soemthing like a favoured nation status.
    Precisely. The same people who keep banging on about an Aussie style points system also keep referring to Switzerland and Norway as examples to follow, two countries that are signed up to free movement as part of the single market.
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    (Original post by JamesN88)
    Precisely. The same people who keep banging on about an Aussie style points system also keep referring to Switzerland and Norway as examples to follow, two countries that are signed up to free movement as part of the single market.
    Meanie - you're talking about another topic
    Meanie meanie meanie
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    (Original post by FredOrJohn)
    Meanie - you're talking about another topic
    Meanie meanie meanie
    One EU related topic always leads to a wider debate.
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    (Original post by JamesN88)
    Precisely. The same people who keep banging on about an Aussie style points system also keep referring to Switzerland and Norway as examples to follow, two countries that are signed up to free movement as part of the single market.
    Im not sure either way, but I do dislike it when people misrepresent the facts or refuse to face up to the natural consequences. That's why on this and other subjects these forums are depressing. We already have a points system, but if we impose it on the EU (fair enough) the natural consequences will be they impose it the other way and as has been stated access to the single market will be off the table. That does not mean there will be no access to the EU, just the advantageous format we currently enjoy. I dont mind if people think that's ok, but they should face up to it instead of thinking they are going to get even better terms. So we agree.
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    (Original post by FredOrJohn)
    If it is a lie take it up with the DAILY TELEGRAPH (source)

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/n...t-deepens.html

    Why on earth people up ticked you and not me.
    That seems so mean.

    I did not call you a liar.

    PEople are so fickle.
    I'm gonna be a meanie again and ask:

    Have you checked the date on that article?
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    (Original post by 999tigger)
    Im not sure either way, but I do dislike it when people misrepresent the facts or refuse to face up to the natural consequences. That's why on this and other subjects these forums are depressing. We already have a points system, but if we impose it on the EU (fair enough) the natural consequences will be they impose it the other way and as has been stated access to the single market will be off the table. That does not mean there will be no access to the EU, just the advantageous format we currently enjoy. I dont mind if people think that's ok, but they should face up to it instead of thinking they are going to get even better terms. So we agree.
    I certainly don't(or think many reasonable people) pay attention to all the apocalyptic leave scenarios being peddled by some politicians, but I don't think its worth the hassle of leaving just to end up joining the EEA at the end of everything.
 
 
 
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