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Are Remainers too cocky and what do you think the result will be? watch

  • View Poll Results: What will be the likely % vote share of Leave?
    Under 25
    6
    3.85%
    25 - 30
    3
    1.92%
    31 - 35
    6
    3.85%
    36 - 40
    10
    6.41%
    41 - 45
    35
    22.44%
    46 - 50
    48
    30.77%
    51 - 55
    39
    25.00%
    56 - 60
    5
    3.21%
    61 - 65
    0
    0%
    Over 65
    4
    2.56%

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    Cocky, smug and patronising. Supportive of the status quo at all costs. I'm getting carried but I can't help posting on this. They are so wrong and as TTIP and corporations take our public spaces and services, we keep being hollowed out by a low wage, free movement economy, and the Eurozone and Southern Europe fall apart, along with climate change, they will be proven wrong, if we leave. However I don't want to prove them wrong by living in a horrible depressing situation, I want to take the initiative, leave, just that very act of independent self confidence(post colonial lack of belief should be over now, too long licking our wounds) can cause the possibilities to open up. Domino effects, and self fulfilling prophecies and belief(not to mention the type of people who win in shaping the future of a country) are not a fiction, they made America. We will abnegate our responsibilities to ourselves as a country by remaining, and I think we will become a more frustrated and crueller country too.
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    (Original post by Edminzodo)
    I think that we will remain in the EU, but the vote will be very close.
    Me too
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    I'm a Bremainer, and I honestly can't call the referendum! I feel that Remain will win by a small margin, but anything could happen; I wouldn't be shocked if Leave won.
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    I think that Remain will be the inevitable outcome personally. I also think that the Leave campaign is more vocal than the Remain campaign - especially online.

    That said, I think it'll be fairly close and be in the region of 35-45% vote share to leave. Realistically more likely 40-50%.

    I'd be very surprised if they got 45-50%, as that would be more than the Scottish referendum. It of course goes without saying I'd be shocked if Leave won!
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    What they need are some real life events happening,something to stir up anti immigrant entiment even more.
    The leave campaign is going nowhere at the moment. Not sensing any momentum since the campaign started, if anything they have fallen backwards. They also want very bad weather on polling day.
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    (Original post by 999tigger)
    What they need are some real life events happening,something to stir up anti immigrant entiment even more.
    The leave campaign is going nowhere at the moment. Not sensing any momentum since the campaign started, if anything they have fallen backwards. They also want very bad weather on polling day.
    I mean, they didn't really help themselves by constantly quoting a totally incorrect number that has been disproved by just about everyone.

    It's not even like the ACTUAL number is especially small either.

    That said, it's a good thing for Remainers that Leave have done such a piss poor job, as Remain is far from a stellar campaign.
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    Is it so bad that I actually do not care about the result? It's been made into more than it will be IMO.
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    Most people will go to the polls wanting to vote out but when they are signing the paper they will probably change their mind just out of fear of instability
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    It'll be 60-40 in, there or thereabouts. I'm in (obviously).

    swirly Dirtybit difeo sr90 Kenan and Kel The Assassin Rk2k14 Louis. bammy jastard 27 SA-1
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    (Original post by Zayn is Bae)
    It'll be 60-40 in, there or thereabouts. I'm in (obviously).

    swirly Dirtybit difeo sr90 Kenan and Kel The Assassin Rk2k14 Louis. bammy jastard 27 SA-1
    Will be close. Result should say it all about the education system in Britain.
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    (Original post by Zayn is Bae)
    It'll be 60-40 in, there or thereabouts. I'm in (obviously).

    swirly Dirtybit difeo sr90 Kenan and Kel The Assassin Rk2k14 Louis. bammy jastard 27 SA-1
    Will be closer than that, but remain will win. I have no doubts about that.
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    (Original post by SaucissonSecCy)
    Cocky, smug and patronising. Supportive of the status quo at all costs. I'm getting carried but I can't help posting on this. They are so wrong and as TTIP and corporations take our public spaces and services, we keep being hollowed out by a low wage, free movement economy, and the Eurozone and Southern Europe fall apart, along with climate change, they will be proven wrong, if we leave. However I don't want to prove them wrong by living in a horrible depressing situation, I want to take the initiative, leave, just that very act of independent self confidence(post colonial lack of belief should be over now, too long licking our wounds) can cause the possibilities to open up. Domino effects, and self fulfilling prophecies and belief(not to mention the type of people who win in shaping the future of a country) are not a fiction, they made America. We will abnegate our responsibilities to ourselves as a country by remaining, and I think we will become a more frustrated and crueller country too.
    You need to be pragmatic and realistic.
    Leaving will give a very right wing Tory government, who are rigging the bound sites in their favour even more power.

    It won't be this democratic left wing utopia you seem to be imagining.
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    (Original post by Sebastian Bartlett)
    It seems that time and time again Bremainers are very certain that they will win by huge margins. Even with a sweep-stake in my workplace, some of the Bremainers seem to think Leave will struggle to get even 35%. Surely this must be overconfidence? If support was that low then why do poll and after poll show a very tight race (yes they may not be that accurate but surely not by as much as 15%). Also by taking into consideration leavers are more likely to vote is this overconfidence just cockiness or even ignorance to the real world? Could this cockiness even put bremainers off voting literally handing leavers the win?

    Also what do you think the result will actually be?
    I've not met anyone who thinks that, practically all news articles and people I've spoken to think that it will be extremely tight but that remain will probably win by a small margin.
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    (Original post by nutcase13)
    Most people will go to the polls wanting to vote out but when they are signing the paper they will probably change their mind just out of fear of instability
    I also think this
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    (Original post by Plagioclase)
    I've not met anyone who thinks that, practically all news articles and people I've spoken to think that it will be extremely tight but that remain will probably win by a small margin.
    You're lucky then, also on numerous online discussion forums have seen a majority of remain supported being very confident of a huge win for them
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    Remain will get a minimum of 53%, probably higher.

    I hope to god there's no future referendum, the campaigns from both sides have been awful.

    (Original post by niteninja1)
    If we stay (hope not) we will see UKIP rise just like the SNP as all the brexiters will feel angry at the main parties
    We won't. The SNP may have their flaws but they massively engaged the population and the turnout was 84%, this meant that that there were a lot of people who cared strongly about the issue by the end of the campaigns. In contrast, it's widely believed that this referendum will probably not even match the turnout of the 01 general election. In short, nobody outside of Ukip really gives much of a crap.
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    (Original post by Sebastian Bartlett)
    Yet to meet a Conservative supporting remain (some don't know) other than the traitors at the top,
    Then you, like most people, are moving in the wrong circles.

    There is a huge confirmation bias on this issue with people associating with folk like them.

    If you were a Welsh miner in the past or you are a Surrey businessman today, everyone you know may vote the way you do, but you know from the media and previous elections, that there are whole swathes of the country where people hold different views to you.

    It is only when there is a new question, do people lose grip on how people unlike them are voting.

    White van man in a small market town may think that all Tories oppose immigration like he does, but the thousands of Tory supporters working for foreign banks in the City have a completely different outlook. Likewise the bank employees may think that WVM "gets" the point about international trade but WVM doesn't even realise banking is trade. As far as he is concerned trade is selling British manufactured goods abroad and buying foreign manufactured goods.

    The 1945 election is the classic example. There was a new question; what to do after the war? Most people, including Attlee, believed Churchill would win the election and still believed it after they had voted (the announcement of results was delayed to await service votes from abroad)
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    (Original post by nulli tertius)
    Then you, like most people, are moving in the wrong circles.

    There is a huge confirmation bias on this issue with people associating with folk like them.

    If you were a Welsh miner in the past or you are a Surrey businessman today, everyone you know may vote the way you do, but you know from the media and previous elections, that there are whole swathes of the country where people hold different views to you.

    It is only when there is a new question, do people lose grip on how people unlike them are voting.

    White van man in a small market town may think that all Tories oppose immigration like he does, but the thousands of Tory supporters working for foreign banks in the City have a completely different outlook. Likewise the bank employees may think that WVM "gets" the point about international trade but WVM doesn't even realise banking is trade. As far as he is concerned trade is selling British manufactured goods abroad and buying foreign manufactured goods.

    The 1945 election is the classic example. There was a new question; what to do after the war? Most people, including Attlee, believed Churchill would win the election and still believed it after they had voted (the announcement of results was delayed to await service votes from abroad)
    My circles are very mixed but Conservatives want out, unless you are in a lieing circle.
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    (Original post by Sebastian Bartlett)
    My circles are very mixed but Conservatives want out, unless you are in a lieing circle.
    Case proved, I think
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    (Original post by Sebastian Bartlett)
    It seems that time and time again Bremainers are very certain that they will win by huge margins. Even with a sweep-stake in my workplace, some of the Bremainers seem to think Leave will struggle to get even 35%. Surely this must be overconfidence? If support was that low then why do poll and after poll show a very tight race (yes they may not be that accurate but surely not by as much as 15%). Also by taking into consideration leavers are more likely to vote is this overconfidence just cockiness or even ignorance to the real world? Could this cockiness even put bremainers off voting literally handing leavers the win?

    Also what do you think the result will actually be?
    There was a real possibility that Scottish would gain independence however the stay campaign won because British people dislike major change and like to play it safe so i think the remain campaign will win but i think the leave will have about 40%
 
 
 
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