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Poll: EU referendum with THREE questions watch

  • View Poll Results: What type of EU future do you want for the UK?
    FULLY OUT
    34
    45.95%
    Cameron IN (opt out of "ever increasing union")
    19
    25.68%
    FULLY IN
    21
    28.38%

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    Cameron has made it clear that he was happy with the incredibly mild and trivial reforms he got in February. Any Remain vote will be taken in Brussels, like it or not, as a full endorsement of the EU and a sign that we will never Leave under any circumstances.

    A Leave vote, unless it is an absolute landslide, will likely only lead to a renegotiation anyway and hence something closer to the terms on which we entered the original Common Market. Reading between the lines of their speeches and interviews etc tells me that's what the likes of Boris and Gove truly want, whereas Farage, Hannan, Galloway etc are genuinely in favour of a full Brexit, excepting free trade agreements etc. But Boris and Gove are obviously more important players.
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    (Original post by FredOrJohn)
    The referendum should have THREE options:

    a. OUT
    b. IN but just (Cameron IN)
    c. FULL MEMBER
    B is just irrelevant because it simply is not an option, not just on the ballot paper, but if it were it sound exactly the same as C.

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    (Original post by ottom)
    Cameron has made it clear that he was happy with the incredibly mild and trivial reforms he got in February. Any Remain vote will be taken in Brussels, like it or not, as a full endorsement of the EU and a sign that we will never Leave under any circumstances.

    A Leave vote, unless it is an absolute landslide, will likely only lead to a renegotiation anyway and hence something closer to the terms on which we entered the original Common Market. Reading between the lines of their speeches and interviews etc tells me that's what the likes of Boris and Gove truly want, whereas Farage, Hannan, Galloway etc are genuinely in favour of a full Brexit, excepting free trade agreements etc. But Boris and Gove are obviously more important players.
    Yes, indeed the NO vote is split in two as well. There is the EEA (European Economic Area which Norway and Iceland are members of) - This is the Gove/Boris option and then there is the "racist" NO vote which is "every one go home apart from my mates"..
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    (Original post by FredOrJohn)
    Yes, indeed the NO vote is split in two as well. There is the EEA (European Economic Area which Norway and Iceland are members of) - This is the Gove/Boris option and then there is the "racist" NO vote which is "every one go home apart from my mates"..
    Except that second option isn't being proposed by anybody that knows anything and is not the non-EEA option, nobody would actually do that because convention dictates otherwise and it's in our interest to maintain convention.

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    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    Except that second option isn't being proposed by anybody that knows anything and is not the non-EEA option, nobody would actually do that because convention dictates otherwise and it's in our interest to maintain convention.

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    Naw you're wrong. Because of "financial inertia" we still need the same numbers of people we have now and probably the same number of new immigrants coming in each year otherwise the country goes splat (its complex to explain why in two lines but we all know why). So the non EEA option that is not "racist" is a con, it has no meaning.
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    I'm just curious to know..why do people want to vote out of the EU?
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    (Original post by FredOrJohn)
    Naw you're wrong. Because of "financial inertia" we still need the same numbers of people we have now and probably the same number of new immigrants coming in each year otherwise the country goes splat (its complex to explain why in two lines but we all know why). So the non EEA option that is not "racist" is a con, it has no meaning.
    So what you're saying is that we currently have a level of unemployment below the 'natural rate' and we must let in as many people who want to come with absolutely any skills whether we need them or not to maintain the economy? Ummm, no.

    We have an unemployment rate that is above the natural rate, so there is slack there, further lots of workers who would happily take on more hours, and not being in the EEA does not mean no immigration, it means being able to control immigration to whatever number we want, skill level we want, we get to take what we want. Starting to get the picture now?

    I also always find it confusing when people suggest that leaving the EU is racist, last I checked it is "racist" to discriminate arbitrarily based on place of origin, which also broadly covers racial lines. If the remainers want to play the racism card it's merely self defeating, and every time the argument is made they just discredit themselves.

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    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    So what you're saying is that we currently have a level of unemployment below the 'natural rate' and we must let in as many people who want to come with absolutely any skills whether we need them or not to maintain the economy? Ummm, no.

    We have an unemployment rate that is above the natural rate, so there is slack there, further lots of workers who would happily take on more hours, and not being in the EEA does not mean no immigration, it means being able to control immigration to whatever number we want, skill level we want, we get to take what we want. Starting to get the picture now?

    I also always find it confusing when people suggest that leaving the EU is racist, last I checked it is "racist" to discriminate arbitrarily based on place of origin, which also broadly covers racial lines. If the remainers want to play the racism card it's merely self defeating, and every time the argument is made they just discredit themselves.

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    Go to EAT (or similar in Central London) everyone serving you will be fit, young and energetic and full of vim. About 10 people. Without them the city would not be fed in an hours lunch break!!

    The background unemployment in the UK has a rate of church (time unemployed) of about 3 months. Long term unemployed (that depress the rate of churn figures) often have social issues that might make them difficult to employ - so deducting them the figure for an average person (no social issues) will probably get a job in a month and a half (based on rate of churn).

    No matter what the level of immigration, people with bad social issues (drugs, crime, continually late or something else) will always find it hard to get work
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    (Original post by FredOrJohn)
    Go to EAT (or similar in Central London) everyone serving you will be fit, young and energetic and full of vim. About 10 people. Without them the city would not be fed in an hours lunch break!!

    The background unemployment in the UK has a rate of church (time unemployed) of about 3 months. Long term unemployed (that depress the rate of churn figures) often have social issues that might make them difficult to employ - so deducting them the figure for an average person (no social issues) will probably get a job in a month and a half (based on rate of churn).

    No matter what the level of immigration, people with bad social issues (drugs, crime, continually late or something else) will always find it hard to get work
    So let us just suppose that unemployment can fall, say, 1pc more. Well, that's about a sixth of the EU workers covered. Further 10pc of workers are visibly underemployed, that is want to work more hours, so if these people are working just half the hours they wish to we have already plugged the hole if we assumed all EU migrants left in terms of pure numbers. But we can plug the hole even easier. An estimated 60pc of graduates are working in jobs not requiring a degree, not surprising given you arbitrarily need a degree so much now since everybody is being pushed towards university. What does this mean? Well, it means there are about 2m people at university simply wasting 3 or more years of their life. Want to guess how many EU workers there are, roughly? 2-3m. So just by getting people into work who don't need to go to university, picking up the slack in unemployment, and reducing underemployment we can very very easily expand the native workforce to cover the hypothetical loss of the EU migrant workforce.

    Of course in all this we ignored the reduced demand on all services, schools, hospitals, shops, etc. We've also cut the welfare budget as out of work benefits are decreased for some to in work benefits, and others lose their in work benefits due to higher earning. Tax receipts per capita also increase due to the larger workforce. We also see reduced wasteful spending on giving university educations where they aren't needed.

    GDP per capita is up
    Taxes per capita, assuming no tax cuts, are up
    Spending per capita is down

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    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    So let us just suppose that unemployment can fall, say, 1pc more. Well, that's about a sixth of the EU workers covered. Further 10pc of workers are visibly underemployed, that is want to work more hours, so if these people are working just half the hours they wish to we have already plugged the hole if we assumed all EU migrants left in terms of pure numbers. But we can plug the hole even easier. An estimated 60pc of graduates are working in jobs not requiring a degree, not surprising given you arbitrarily need a degree so much now since everybody is being pushed towards university. What does this mean? Well, it means there are about 2m people at university simply wasting 3 or more years of their life. Want to guess how many EU workers there are, roughly? 2-3m. So just by getting people into work who don't need to go to university, picking up the slack in unemployment, and reducing underemployment we can very very easily expand the native workforce to cover the hypothetical loss of the EU migrant workforce.

    Of course in all this we ignored the reduced demand on all services, schools, hospitals, shops, etc. We've also cut the welfare budget as out of work benefits are decreased for some to in work benefits, and others lose their in work benefits due to higher earning. Tax receipts per capita also increase due to the larger workforce. We also see reduced wasteful spending on giving university educations where they aren't needed.

    GDP per capita is up
    Taxes per capita, assuming no tax cuts, are up
    Spending per capita is down

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    The average EU immigrant is here to work.
    The average UK person includes babies, young children or someone with dementia or indeed just pensioners generally or perhaps someone with social issues or has cancer or heart problems.

    Thus, the NHS, is statistically more likely to employ an EU citizen to help a UK citizen then the other way around. So without the EU citizens far more elderly UK people will die from a lack of care and or UK babies will die due to lack of care .

    this is the only reasonable assumption one can make without the use of exact stats.
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    (Original post by FredOrJohn)
    The average EU immigrant is here to work.
    The average UK person includes babies, young children or someone with dementia or indeed just pensioners generally or perhaps someone with social issues or has cancer or heart problems.

    Thus, the NHS, is statistically more likely to employ an EU citizen to help a UK citizen then the other way around. So without the EU citizens far more elderly UK people will die from a lack of care and or UK babies will die due to lack of care .

    this is the only reasonable assumption one can make without the use of exact stats.
    So you're saying either uncontrolled EU migration and absolutely zero migration from anywhere into the NHS are the options?

    The average EU migrant also includes a significant number of the economically inactive, it's not only the native population

    Also of the non EU migrants nearly half are for study, I.e. those that are bringing tens of thousands a year into the country to get a world class education. These people not directly paying tax will also be skewing the EU vs non EU figures

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    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    So you're saying either uncontrolled EU migration and absolutely zero migration from anywhere into the NHS are the options?

    The average EU migrant also includes a significant number of the economically inactive, it's not only the native population

    Also of the non EU migrants nearly half are for study, I.e. those that are bringing tens of thousands a year into the country to get a world class education. These people not directly paying tax will also be skewing the EU vs non EU figures

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    Would you let "uncontrolled" migration from Croydon to Sutton so that no one in Sutton could get a job? You're sort of making barriers (stopping people from moving) - where will it eventually end? Will we all need some sort of work permit to work in certain towns and villages? Or do you invisage a time when a UK citizen can log onto Google and look up jobs in the USA, Canada, Finland, France, JApan, Australia, South Korea or anywhere on the planet?

    Why do you want to stop your kids and mine (if we have any) getting a job anywhere on the globe? Why do you want to go back to the NATION STATE (a nineteenth century construct) - The UK did not exist before act of Union, nor did nearly any nation state before about 1700. Why do you want to go back and stop our potential kids from being "globalists"?
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    (Original post by FredOrJohn)
    Would you let "uncontrolled" migration from Croydon to Sutton so that no one in Sutton could get a job? You're sort of making barriers (stopping people from moving) - where will it eventually end? Will we all need some sort of work permit to work in certain towns and villages? Or do you invisage a time when a UK citizen can log onto Google and look up jobs in the USA, Canada, Finland, France, JApan, Australia, South Korea or anywhere on the planet?

    Why do you want to stop your kids and mine (if we have any) getting a job anywhere on the globe? Why do you want to go back to the NATION STATE (a nineteenth century construct) - The UK did not exist before act of Union, nor did nearly any nation state before about 1700. Why do you want to go back and stop our potential kids from being "globalists"?
    While I believe that uncontrolled immigration can cause problems I believe that more problems arise from the existence of nation states as we have them if the entire globe were under one government that was truly democratic and fairly elected then issues like people fleeing war and chaos would reduce and while a single global government would face its own problems I think it might actually be better than what we have currently.
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    (Original post by Pmh1)
    While I believe that uncontrolled immigration can cause problems I believe that more problems arise from the existence of nation states as we have them if the entire globe were under one government that was truly democratic and fairly elected then issues like people fleeing war and chaos would reduce and while a single global government would face its own problems I think it might actually be better than what we have currently.
    As I said early, with the "big Umbrella" union you can go back to regionalism without fear of war - We could have parliaments the size of Iceland where you have a very good chance of seeing your local MP down your local pub.

    This type of "state" parliament can only really work within the "Big Umbrella"...

    Thus, for example, the AVERAGE USA state has just 6.4 million people (that is 320 million divided by 50). 6.4 million people organising their own laws and society. That is what BIG UNIONS can give you - powerful local politics without the fear of wars.

    The UK has absolutely shiiiit politics at regional level - Can you even name a political assembly we have that represents the true feelings of our REGION?

    The only way we can get a Federal UK is via the EU.
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    (Original post by FredOrJohn)
    As I said early, with the "big Umbrella" union you can go back to regionalism without fear of war - We could have parliaments the size of Iceland where you have a very good chance of seeing your local MP down your local pub.

    This type of "state" parliament can only really work within the "Big Umbrella"...

    Thus, for example, the AVERAGE USA state has just 6.4 million people (that is 320 million divided by 50). 6.4 million people organising their own laws and society. That is what BIG UNIONS can give you - powerful local politics without the fear of wars.

    The UK has absolutely shiiiit politics at regional level - Can you even name a political assembly we have that represents the true feelings of our REGION?

    The only way we can get a Federal UK is via the EU.
    I know that my local mayor possibly represents my constituency quite well (he's independent) but the government certainly doesn't.
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    It is interesting that in the post 1pm voting it tends to be FULL IN voters.
    Between 11am and 1pm its the Cameron IN.
    Between 6am and 11am its mainly OUT.


    Using studies about sleep patterns this suggests that the majority of the OUT voters (dads or granddads).
    The Cameron IN are recently ex-students now working
    The FULL IN are currently students.

    This being said, if one was trying to get people to change their voting one should concentrate on voting positively about the EU early in the morning and negatively about the EU in the afternoon.
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    (Original post by FredOrJohn)
    Would you let "uncontrolled" migration from Croydon to Sutton so that no one in Sutton could get a job? You're sort of making barriers (stopping people from moving) - where will it eventually end? Will we all need some sort of work permit to work in certain towns and villages? Or do you invisage a time when a UK citizen can log onto Google and look up jobs in the USA, Canada, Finland, France, JApan, Australia, South Korea or anywhere on the planet?

    Why do you want to stop your kids and mine (if we have any) getting a job anywhere on the globe? Why do you want to go back to the NATION STATE (a nineteenth century construct) - The UK did not exist before act of Union, nor did nearly any nation state before about 1700. Why do you want to go back and stop our potential kids from being "globalised"
    I think you're severely either confused or misguided. First, there is a major difference between internal and external migration, particularly given internally has the same history, culture, judicial system, law bar a few by laws, etc; second we get that a country with proper borders is not a country without migration, of Britons abroad less than a quarter are in the EU; there are about as many in Australia, and I recall more in North America, we already can sit down on google and look for jobs pretty much anywhere in the world. We also get that the EU merely shifts the border, being pro EU is generally not not being nationalist, it's just changing the subject.

    As for the second paragraph, would you care to explain how it is that leaving the EU suddenly locks down borders so that people cannot get jobs outside the UK, which seems to be fundamental to your argument? We also have to remember that the EU is pretty much the only place in the world that is trying to centralise power more and more, in this age of localisation of power. The nation state is far from dead or outdated, the EU is but an attempt st forming a new one, one that didn't exist in 1993, or 1958 if we want coal and steel community. The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland didn't exist until 1922, before that the UK of GB and Ireland in 1801, Kingdom of GB in 1707, kingdom of England (including Wales) in 1542, and has otherwise been a sovereign state since the tenth century. The nation state is also a predominantly 17th, not 19th, century thing.

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    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    I snip.....

    As for the second paragraph, would you care to explain how it is that leaving the EU suddenly locks down borders so that people cannot get jobs outside the UK, which seems to be fundamental to your argument? We also have to remember that the EU is pretty much the only place in the world that is trying to centralise power more and more, in this age of localisation of power. The nation state is far from dead or outdated, the EU is but an attempt st forming a new one, one that didn't exist in 1993, or 1958 if we want coal and steel community. The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland didn't exist until 1922, before that the UK of GB and Ireland in 1801, Kingdom of GB in 1707, kingdom of England (including Wales) in 1542, and has otherwise been a sovereign state since the tenth century. The nation state is also a predominantly 17th, not 19th, century thing.

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    a) would you care to explain how it is that leaving the EU suddenly locks down borders
    Yep - the stated will of No'eu generally speaking is the end of Free Movement.

    b) We also have to remember that the EU is pretty much the only place in the world that is trying to centralise power more and more,...

    Nope, the UK is the only centralised power in the the EU. Even France went Federal recently. The SNP only got traction in the UK thanks to the existence of the EU. The UK is a retrogressive state.

    c) The nation state is also a predominantly 17th - I said 1700... I'm sure that is close enough (people like Garibaldi and Fredrick The Great or Bolivar )...
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    (Original post by FredOrJohn)
    a) would you care to explain how it is that leaving the EU suddenly locks down borders
    Yep - the stated will of No'eu generally speaking is the end of Free Movement.

    b) We also have to remember that the EU is pretty much the only place in the world that is trying to centralise power more and more,...

    Nope, the UK is the only centralised power in the the EU. Even France went Federal recently. The SNP only got traction in the UK thanks to the existence of the EU. The UK is a retrogressive state.

    c) The nation state is also a predominantly 17th - I said 1700... I'm sure that is close enough (people like Garibaldi and Fredrick The Great or Bolivar )...
    a) No free movement=/= a closed border, hardly a complex concept but it does seem to be for so many young people.

    b)not federal=/= centralised. Last I checked the Scottish parliament existed, the Welsh Assembly existed, Stormont existed and power is being devolved to local governments; at the same time the EU is drawing powers away from national governments towards Brussels, centralisation by definition.

    c) you yourself declared it a construct of the 19th century.
 
 
 
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