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If the result is Leave, will we leave? Watch

  • View Poll Results: After a Leave result in the Referendum, the UK would...
    End up remaining after a lot of discussion and debate with little real change
    37
    21.02%
    End up remaining but with some meaningful changes
    17
    9.66%
    Leave but only half-heartedly and with little real change
    72
    40.91%
    Leave abruptly and possibly chaotically
    50
    28.41%

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    Yes, it's not called Vote Leave for nothing!
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    (Original post by Alexion)
    In the result of a Leave vote ~ We will leave. It won't be immediate, but democracy will have spoken and we will end up outside the EU.

    Let's hope it doesn't happen though.
    It's ironic you mention democracy yet you want to remain in the EU. :giggle:
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    (Original post by davgen7)
    The vast majority of people want to leave
    I admit that may just be the people who surround me though who may not be representative of the entire population
    Providing you're not surrounded by young people your statistic [of 85%] is more possible.
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    (Original post by XcitingStuart)
    It's ironic you mention democracy yet you want to remain in the EU. :giggle:
    idgi
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    (Original post by Fullofsurprises)
    I called the options as I saw them. I don't believe there's a 'leave completely' option that doesn't involve massive chaotic and unforeseeably negative consequences.
    then you are unashamedly and brazenly unfaithful to giving people a true range of options that aren't loaded or in some sense rigged in your own favour and you really ought to have some sense of honour here - you are looking like you're misleading people. is that what you want? is it worth it? it is plain for people to see that this is what you're doing. I thought you'd be a bit more grown up. what would you say if the in campaign for independence said that the options for the referendum were essentially "stay in and be safe or leave the union and get bombed by russia without the protection of england"?
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    (Original post by Fullofsurprises)
    With many polls now suggesting a majority for Leave, I can't help but wonder what the real outcome of a Leave vote would be.

    The law that created the referendum in no way binds the government to do any specific thing as a result. Cameron will not want to leave. Even if he immediately resigned and was replaced in an election by Bojo or Teresa May, there are no certainties. May is a Remainer and Boris was until about a month before the campaign and he saw an opportunity to defeat his old enemy Dave.

    So what would actually happen? Would HMG steam in to battle, determined to remove us from the EU? Or something different?

    My guess is there would be a prolonged period of 'negotiating the departure'. At the end of it, the government will announce that there are so many terrible consequences that having thought it all over, they think the best thing would be to remain in after all.

    Thoughts?
    Wouldn't this destroy the Conservative Party though? Not suggesting that this would necessarily be a bad result, but I can't imagine they'd be in favour of it.
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    (Original post by Alexion)
    idgi
    You say "democracy will have spoken" giving off the vibe that it is a good thing, then you mention you hope we don't leave [the EU.]
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    (Original post by XcitingStuart)
    You say "democracy will have spoken" giving off the vibe that it is a good thing, then you mention you hope we don't leave [the EU.]
    'democracy has spoken' in reference to the fact that it is what the majority want ~ I can't protest against something the nation itself voted in favour of.
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    (Original post by sleepysnooze)
    then you are unashamedly and brazenly unfaithful to giving people a true range of options that aren't loaded or in some sense rigged in your own favour and you really ought to have some sense of honour here - you are looking like you're misleading people. is that what you want? is it worth it? it is plain for people to see that this is what you're doing. I thought you'd be a bit more grown up. what would you say if the in campaign for independence said that the options for the referendum were essentially "stay in and be safe or leave the union and get bombed by russia without the protection of england"?
    I see you're new to FoS. This is what she does each and every time.
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    Get Out (Leave) right now, it's the end of EU and me

    or

    Oh won't EU, stay with me, cause EUR all I need
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    (Original post by XcitingStuart)
    Providing you're not surrounded by young people your statistic [of 85%] is more possible.
    That is entirely true. Most of the young people want to leave too though
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    That is one bias poll. :indiff:

    Where is the "slow transition to leave" option?

    People would still be getting screwed over by the negatives of globalisation but we would be outside the EU.
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    (Original post by Fullofsurprises)
    I called the options as I saw them. I don't believe there's a 'leave completely' option that doesn't involve massive chaotic and unforeseeably negative consequences.
    Such as?

    The poll pigeonholes responses favourable to your position and wouldn't look amiss in the Daily Mirror
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    I don't think the government can just say in the event of a leave vote-
    "I know we said we'd give you the choice but WRONG ANSWER we're staying."
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    Personally I support the Leave campaign. However, Cameron and Osborne will exploit whatever Remain-leaning advantage that they are faced with. In practice, this means:
    • If the result favors the Remain camp on a basis of 50.1% (as opposed to 49.9% in Remain), despite the possibility of public anger and protest, we will not be given another chance or another referendum in this current Parliamentary session (or perhaps never). As I said, any advantage exists is the 'absolute truth' in DC's opinion.
    • If the result favors the Leave camp on a basis of 50.1% (as opposed to 49.9% in Remain), despite the possibility of public anger and protest, there is a good likelihood that DC will launch or initiate another referendum to yield a Remain majority. If this is not the case, yet again, we will likely not be given a second referendum. Instead, we shall continue with the status quo.
    This behavior portrayed by DC is evident in his refusal to host a second Scottish referendum, regarding which he also favored the Remain camp. Indeed, hypocrisy is at play and is unlikely to fade away any time soon.
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    (Original post by Fullofsurprises)
    I called the options as I saw them.
    And therein lies the problem with you.

    Any option written by you is either "I'm right" or "you haven't realised I'm right yet". You give no thought to the notion, however horrendous it may be to you, that you might be wrong.
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    (Original post by Fullofsurprises)
    With many polls now suggesting a majority for Leave, I can't help but wonder what the real outcome of a Leave vote would be.

    The law that created the referendum in no way binds the government to do any specific thing as a result. Cameron will not want to leave. Even if he immediately resigned and was replaced in an election by Bojo or Teresa May, there are no certainties. May is a Remainer and Boris was until about a month before the campaign and he saw an opportunity to defeat his old enemy Dave.
    Evidence?

    So what would actually happen? Would HMG steam in to battle, determined to remove us from the EU? Or something different?

    My guess is there would be a prolonged period of 'negotiating the departure'. At the end of it, the government will announce that there are so many terrible consequences that having thought it all over, they think the best thing would be to remain in after all.

    Thoughts?
    I think it would have been possible for a Labour government to remain anyway but it simply isn't possible for the Tories for the simple reason that the sizeable number of its parliamentary party who oppose the EU would cry bloody murder led by Johnson & Gove. They would be joined by an oportunistic opposition and by those who would be genuinely appalled at the deceit and contempt displayed against the people. One backbench Tory MP was recently quoted in The Times as saying that he wanted to stab DC in the front to see the expression on his face. This hostility would explode in the event of remaining after a Leave vote which is already extremely unlikely as Cameron knows it would become his Iraq and permanently wreck his reputation as a One Nation Tory keen to ingratiate himself to ordinary people.

    I do not think there is any possibility of us not leaving in the event of a Leave vote.
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    (Original post by davgen7)
    The vast majority of people want to leave
    I admit that may just be the people who surround me though who may not be representative of the entire population
    Not necessarily. A lot of people I know wish to stay - I can't call it personally.


    In terms of the question, if people have voted leave then we will have to leave. Having a referendum this big and then simply ignoring the results would cause absolute chaos imo and probably riots.
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    (Original post by Fullofsurprises)
    With many polls now suggesting a majority for Leave, I can't help but wonder what the real outcome of a Leave vote would be.

    The law that created the referendum in no way binds the government to do any specific thing as a result. Cameron will not want to leave. Even if he immediately resigned and was replaced in an election by Bojo or Teresa May, there are no certainties. May is a Remainer and Boris was until about a month before the campaign and he saw an opportunity to defeat his old enemy Dave.

    So what would actually happen? Would HMG steam in to battle, determined to remove us from the EU? Or something different?

    My guess is there would be a prolonged period of 'negotiating the departure'. At the end of it, the government will announce that there are so many terrible consequences that having thought it all over, they think the best thing would be to remain in after all.

    Thoughts?
    The Tories would not go against the will of the people in that way - it would destroy them at the next election, lead to civil war inside the party and I imagine even remainers would be appalled if they ignored the will of the people in that way.
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    (Original post by Plagioclase)
    Wouldn't this destroy the Conservative Party though? Not suggesting that this would necessarily be a bad result, but I can't imagine they'd be in favour of it.
    There are many who think the Tory Party is going to divide in two after this anyway, regardless of the outcome.

    One of the saddest things about a Leave vote would be that it would be the working people of the country voting against their own interests on behalf of a corrupt group of reactionary politicians who represent City tax evasion interests. Eg, people like Farage and the right wing of the Conservative Party.
 
 
 
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