Hey there! Sign in to join this conversationNew here? Join for free
    Offline

    17
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by 13 1 20 8 42)
    Polls can be misleading. I think we'll remain.
    True. People normally vote for the status quo, especially when all the big names are in favour of it.
    Offline

    3
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by generallee)
    I am a trader myself, I know how it works.
    Lol that's not an answer though is it? Am I talking to Mystic Meg?
    Offline

    2
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by XcitingStuart)
    Win-win situation.
    In economic terms, a short term could be longer than our lifetimes. I'd rather see the economy declining at a slow rate rather than see it go into a recession and all the benefits (if any) we will never see. It's not a win situation when the house prices are going down, causing landlords to struggle to stay in the market; less competition for university places as less EU students would be applying, causing borderline retarded people to get degrees; and I don't want to be applying for visa to go to Spain or Greece on the holidays.
    Offline

    2
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by generallee)
    I am a trader myself, I know how it works.
    Are you though?

    Pretty much every major financial institution is against a Brexit. But here you are Mr. Trader, orgasming at polls showing a favor towards Brexit, not to mention your oh so confident "I am a trader, hence I know how the economy works" (lol :rolleyes: at that one).

    What are you trading in brah? What are you doing on TSR?
    Offline

    17
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by sebby491)
    Australasian nations? So basically NZ and Australia (all the other are irrelevant)
    That is what I was referring to yes :yep:
    • Thread Starter
    Online

    14
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by Axion)
    Lol that's not an answer though is it? Am I talking to Mystic Meg?
    I know I am talking to someone who has no idea how markets trade. None, Not a clue.

    The efficient market hypothesis?? What a joke.
    Offline

    20
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by Axion)
    Again these are opinions. Under efficient market hypothesis, the value of a stock is equal to it's expected long-term cash flows, subject to a discount rate. The market is directly telling you, at the moment, that the impact of Brexit is to, ceteris paribus, reduce long-term cash flows of major UK companies.

    There is zero evidence that we will recover a stronger economy. That is simply an appeal to 'patriotism'.
    What about the money we pay in (considering rebate & EU budget spent on us?)
    What about higher energy prices?
    What about steel industry? (Though partially Cameron's government's fault.)
    What about being biggest export market for goods for rest of EU? (To dispute they won't trade w/ us.)
    What about food prices & development in LEDCs (in the absence of the Common Agricultural Policy, a part of the Common External Tariff)?
    What about fisheries? (Though I don't understand intricacies.)

    Then, disregarding economics, what about greater democracy?
    What about un-pooled sovereignty? (Just doesn't work for democracy (pooled sovereignty, that is.))

    (I'll explain post if you want.)
    Offline

    18
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by Axion)
    US market has seen the least vs. Europe. The Brexit has been seen as shortening chances of an interest rate hike over there, which is good for stocks. But even it has started to pare back.

    Some is of course down to economic data, but I have access to major research reports out of a couple of leading UK investment banks which have conducted research on fund managers across Europe on their stance re: Brexit, about concerns and things, and it's clear that Brexit is what is causing this drop. Very clear.

    Capital flows tell you all you need to know in that regard.
    It's started to plateau, it hasn't bounced back but yes fair enough.

    Equally a few investment banks have said in the long term it's not a problem, even if Brexit does occur. http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/eu-referend...ves-eu-1565186
    Offline

    2
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by 09876543211)
    In economic terms, a short term could be longer than our lifetimes. I'd rather see the economy declining at a slow rate rather than see it go into a recession and all the benefits (if any) we will never see. It's not a win situation when the house prices are going down, causing landlords to struggle to stay in the market; less competition for university places as less EU students would be applying, causing borderline retarded people to get degrees; and I don't want to be applying for visa to go to Spain or Greece on the holidays.
    You high?
    Offline

    20
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by inhuman)
    :rofl:

    What is up with this belief that somehow exiting the EU is like pressing reset in a computer game?
    It's not; but it's the lesser of two evils.

    Our system (here in the UK) isn't perfect; far from it, but it's certainly better than the EU in terms of power to the people.
    • Thread Starter
    Online

    14
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by inhuman)
    Are you though?

    Pretty much every major financial institution is against a Brexit. But here you are Mr. Trader, orgasming at polls showing a favor towards Brexit, not to mention your oh so confident "I am a trader, hence I know how the economy works" (lol :rolleyes: at that one).

    What are you trading in brah? What are you doing on TSR?
    I trade Silver.

    What am I doing on TSR? Good question, I ask myself sometimes. I guess I find the thoughts of people like you fascinating. :rolleyes:
    Offline

    17
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by 09876543211)
    In economic terms, a short term could be longer than our lifetimes. I'd rather see the economy declining at a slow rate rather than see it go into a recession and all the benefits (if any) we will never see. It's not a win situation when the house prices are going down, causing landlords to struggle to stay in the market; less competition for university places as less EU students would be applying, causing borderline retarded people to get degrees; and I don't want to be applying for visa to go to Spain or Greece on the holidays.
    I don't think foreign holidays is a good reason for voting to stay in. Also, if fewer people are going to university tuition fees could go down. There's something of a correlation between the scrapping of grants and the increased number of people going to uni.

    Depends on if you're voting for your own selfish reasons or because you genuinely believe your decision's going to be better for the UK in the long-term.
    Offline

    3
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by generallee)
    I know I am talking to someone who has no idea how markets trade. None, Not a clue.

    The efficient market hypothesis?? What a joke.
    Please enlighten me about how the markets trade. I need a laugh.
    Offline

    11
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by Axion)
    Yes, the more likely Leave goes through, the more turbulent the markets are becoming and the more evident the economic impact is going to be. Over £110bn wiped off the Uk markets alone over the past week when Remain odds have shortened from 70% to 57%, and the markets starting to tank.

    Still who cares right.... right?
    To be honest I think if leave win it will be the people that think they have the least to loose that cost the establishment the vote. At least 80+% of elites and establishment want to remain but I don't think that they realised what 20 years of telling poor and down trodden and mostly white people that they are racist for even wanting to talk about immigration and whether it is a good idea, even though it is these people that have seen the downside of the policy.
    Its them that cue for public transport,
    its them that cant afford spiralling house prices,
    its them that have seen their rents rocket,
    Its them that have seen their job opportunities diminish and wages undercut.
    its them that now often wait a decade to get into social housing, if they ever do,
    Its them that wait forever to see a doctor
    its them that cant get their kids into over subscribed schools
    and its them that are going to vote en mass to get out. There is a certain inexorable head of steam about all this.
    You could look at this list and come up with various excuses for them that aren't immigration and you may or may not be right, but the fact is that poor people aren't having it and they believe it is.
    Jeremy told the massed ranks of Labour the other day that it isn't racist to be worried about immigration. Well sorry old chum but its too little too late. People like you have spent a generation telling other perfectly decent people exactly that, that they were racist to even bring it up and now, for better or worse, every one is going to pay the price.
    Offline

    2
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by XcitingStuart)
    It's not; but it's the lesser of two evils.

    Our system (here in the UK) isn't perfect; far from it, but it's certainly better than the EU in terms of power to the people.
    And yet you allude to it being just that, as do many others.
    Offline

    17
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by nexttimeigetvpn)
    the poor idiots voting brexit don't even know what they're getting into
    How are they expected to? Voting for the status quo is always going to be easier, which is why things rarely change.

    It's called taking the plunge.
    Offline

    3
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by XcitingStuart)
    What about the money we pay in (considering rebate & EU budget spent on us?)
    What about higher energy prices?
    What about steel industry? (Though partially Cameron's government's fault.)
    What about being biggest export market for goods for rest of EU? (To dispute they won't trade w/ us.)
    What about food prices & development in LEDCs (in the absence of the Common Agricultural Policy, a part of the Common External Tariff)?
    What about fisheries? (Though I don't understand intricacies.)

    Then, disregarding economics, what about greater democracy?
    What about un-pooled sovereignty? (Just doesn't work for democracy (pooled sovereignty, that is.))

    (I'll explain post if you want.)
    I guess your economic points all come down to whether or not the EU provides a net economic benefit. Heck, if it didn't I'm not sure there would be many people on the Remain side of the campaign! The markets, credible financial institutions, business leaders, and hundreds of economists say that it does. Any conjecture about being 'stronger economically' outside the EU is highly presumptuous. We know at the moment, that we are stronger economically today, inside the EU, versus on June 25th, if we left.

    With regards to democracy, I think this comes down entirely to immigration for the ordinary person. Why? Because no Joe Bloggs Leaver can tell you which EU policies directly harm him as a consumer. The reality is that most help him, with safety etc. Since I'm fine with the current state of immigration given it has to be weighed up against the economy, that's why I'm on the remain side.

    Of course, the politicians want greater democracy so they can set laws themselves, but I couldn't care less. The current set of laws for consumers works perfectly fine for me.
    Offline

    3
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by nexttimeigetvpn)
    the poor idiots voting brexit don't even know what they're getting into
    They love the idea of another 5 or so years of economic turbulence and sheer uncertainty in Europe as the sort of thing below rolls out continent-wide.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...days-of-brexit
    • Thread Starter
    Online

    14
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by Axion)
    Please enlighten me about how the markets trade. I need a laugh.
    Open a Spread Betting account (CMC and IG are both good) and you'll soon fine out.

    Keep your books on the "efficient market hypothesis" well to hand because you'll need those.

    They'll be really useful...
    Offline

    3
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by Helloworld_95)
    It's started to plateau, it hasn't bounced back but yes fair enough.

    Equally a few investment banks have said in the long term it's not a problem, even if Brexit does occur.
    Can you provide a link for the investment banks saying it's not a problem? Or a news article or something to that effect?
 
 
 
  • See more of what you like on The Student Room

    You can personalise what you see on TSR. Tell us a little about yourself to get started.

  • Poll
    Brussels sprouts
    Useful resources
  • See more of what you like on The Student Room

    You can personalise what you see on TSR. Tell us a little about yourself to get started.

  • The Student Room, Get Revising and Marked by Teachers are trading names of The Student Room Group Ltd.

    Register Number: 04666380 (England and Wales), VAT No. 806 8067 22 Registered Office: International House, Queens Road, Brighton, BN1 3XE

    Quick reply
    Reputation gems: You get these gems as you gain rep from other members for making good contributions and giving helpful advice.