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Economist who predicted financial crisis backs leaving the European Union watch

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    (Original post by Kryptonian)
    If we remained we would be as we are happy and safe and we can push for a reformed europe.
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016...a-better-deal/

    The EU said otherwise unfortunately. If the EU had genuinely looked like reforming I'd have voted Remain.
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    (Original post by welshiee)
    How are you right? Go and listen to your supreme leader please.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk...-a7095601.html

    No new deal for UK after vote.

    The EU has a political vision based on a warped ideology and its not going to pander to the UK rather than getting there.
    You beat me to it. PRSOM.
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    (Original post by Kryptonian)
    You are telling me to jog on because you don't like the truth. What can I say?
    You lost the argument, you have lost the vote but will you lose the battle? I am hoping the Remain camp get violent because if they do its game over for you.
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    I think this thread here is a collection of the quick witted strategist minds. All we need now is Rakas to join us.

    What you 2 thing about ScotLond campaign? I think its hilarious because 'The City of London' will never allow London to move back into the EU after a defeat like this.

    The lefties also seem to think the Pro-Brexit establishment is just going to surrender Parliament. They will take 1 look at the petition's and just chuck them in the fire place to burn.
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    (Original post by welshiee)
    Which is exactly what the remain campaign did before the referendum. The difference is you are listening to people with a history of getting things wrong whereas we are listening to people with a history of getting things right, but if you wish to believe in the IMF and OECD then that is your own prerogative.
    Except it's not just the IMF, it's the overwhelming majority of economists in the country (and internationally) including over ten nobel prize winning economists.
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    (Original post by Plagioclase)
    Except it's not just the IMF, it's the overwhelming majority of economists in the country (and internationally) including over ten nobel prize winning economists.
    Can you provide me with their track records on economic forecasts please.........

    I have done the research so I know how bad most of their track records are......

    Having done that research whilst also analysing the methodologies used in various reports I decided that the arguments put forward by pro-Brexit economists were far more sensible.

    There is literally no point in arguing about this as you will literally believe whatever confirms your argument. Do as you please. I don't care.
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    (Original post by Kryptonian)
    If we remained we would be as we are happy and safe and we can push for a reformed europe.
    Do you really think that staying in the EU would have helped to reform it? Really?

    First, with the threat of leaving the EU, the EU did not budge or shake by trying to compromise on certain policies in order to get the UK to stay. David Cameron came back with negligible benefits from the so-called negotiation period.

    I felt that was the point that showed the EU did not really care about individual member states, but the "success" of the whole club.

    If you and your partner have relationship issues and then you threaten to leave unless they compromise on certain things, but they don't even flinch at the idea of your imminent departure. then you should know that your partner does not really love you, but enjoys the benefits of you being there, probably because you contributed to the rent and other expenses.

    Two, many of the so-called experts said that the UK will face Apocalypse if they chose to leave the EU. They said that all companies will leave and UK will become a third world country. Yes, the markets shook for a bit, but by the end of trading on Friday, things began to return to normal.

    It was the same rhetoric from the so-called experts who argued that the UK will be a poor insignificant country, if they did not join the Euro and Eurozone. Now, we know that the so-called "experts" were very wrong. Remember that they did not predict the financial crisis in 2008, but yet they can predict the demise of the UK.

    My guess is that the UK will be fine. Yes, it will not be a smooth road, but it will be better for the sovereignty of the nation. The fear now is that if Marine Le Pen wins in France, then a Frexit is possible. The media is also claiming things like Grexit for Greece. We can see how cautious the EU leaders are because the world is watching how they treat the UK.

    There are so many issues with the EU at the moment. The reason why we are not seeing a demolition of the EU is because EU countries will not give their people the vote. Now that they have seen the result of Brexit, the prospect of any such vote in the EU will never happen.

    Finally, someone said something during an interview. She said that knowing what we do about the EU i.e. struggling euro and eurozone, migrant crisis, rise of far-right politics and so on. If the vote was for the UK to join the EU, would they join? Many people said no.

    I also asked many people, around me, who voted to remain and they all said "No" that they won't vote to join the EU.
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    (Original post by illegaltobepoor)
    You lost the argument, you have lost the vote but will you lose the battle? I am hoping the Remain camp get violent because if they do its game over for you.
    Stop saying I lost the vote because I never voted as I am 15 almost 16 in couple of days. The voting age should have been lowered and then we will have seen who would have won.

    I'm just concerned about my future and my country so why not make me understand instead of saying pointless things like I lost. I am just worried but I just hope Brexit has a positive impact if nothing can be changed . Do you understand what I mean??
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    (Original post by Tempest II)
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016...a-better-deal/

    The EU said otherwise unfortunately. If the EU had genuinely looked like reforming I'd have voted Remain.
    Wow that persuades me that the right choice was made.
    BUT what about the negative effects of Brexit? That is why I am worried.
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    (Original post by welshiee)
    Can you provide me with their track records on economic forecasts please.........

    I have done the research so I know how bad most of their track records are.....
    You're going to investigate the track record of the majority of economists on the planet? Okay, well I can't criticize your ambition. You can start with this list of 200 economists including about 170 academics.
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    (Original post by Plagioclase)
    You're going to investigate the track record of the majority of economists on the planet? Okay, well I can't criticize your ambition. You can start with this list of 200 economists including about 170 academics.
    Already did it as its been assessed and the majority of economic experts have a horrendous track record when it comes to predictions.
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    (Original post by welshiee)
    Already did it as its been assessed and the majority of economic experts have a horrendous track record when it comes to predictions.
    So you're basically saying that economics isn't a legitimate area of study? That you know better than the majority of economists in the world? You don't feel a little bit foolish saying that?
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    (Original post by Plagioclase)
    So you're basically saying that economics isn't a legitimate area of study? That you know better than the majority of economists in the world? You don't feel a little bit foolish saying that?
    No. I'm saying I'll listen to the economists with a track record of getting things right than the economists with a track record of getting things wrong. Those with a track record of making accurate forecasts are conclusively in favour or Brexit.

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/...-brexit-report

    Here's a source from the Guardian. I know how sensitive you remain campaigners are about sources.
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    (Original post by welshiee)
    Already did it as its been assessed and the majority of economic experts have a horrendous track record when it comes to predictions.
    AKA I am making up random things as I am going along.
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    (Original post by welshiee)
    No. I'm saying I'll listen to the economists with a track record of getting things right than the economists with a track record of getting things wrong. Those with a track record of making accurate forecasts are conclusively in favour or Brexit.

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/...-brexit-report

    Here's a source from the Guardian. I know how sensitive you remain campaigners are about sources.
    This is absolutely ridiculous. You are trusting someone who wrote a book that can be interpreted as predicting the 2008 financial crash over the entire economic establishment? You're discrediting every other economist on the basis of something that isn't even directly related to Brexit? This is one of the most extreme examples of cherry picking I have seen in a long time...

    Please don't pretend as if this guy has convinced you. You supported Brexit beforehand and you've simply decided to agree with this one individual because he's saying something you like. You're supporting him on the basis of a single book that he wrote.
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    (Original post by Wired_1800)

    Two, many of the so-called experts said that the UK will face Apocalypse if they chose to leave the EU. They said that all companies will leave and UK will become a third world country. Yes, the markets shook for a bit, but by the end of trading on Friday, things began to return to normal.
    .
    No one said that all the companies would leave on Friday. ****ing pleb.
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    (Original post by Plagioclase)
    This is absolutely ridiculous. You are trusting someone who wrote a book that can be interpreted as predicting the 2008 financial crash over the entire economic establishment? You're discrediting every other economist on the basis of something that isn't even directly related to Brexit? This is one of the most extreme examples of cherry picking I have seen in a long time...

    Please don't pretend as if this guy has convinced you. You supported Brexit beforehand and you've simply decided to agree with this one individual because he's saying something you like. You're supporting him on the basis of a single book that he wrote.
    There's multiple economists supporting Brexit.
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    (Original post by DorianGrayism)
    AKA I am making up random things as I am going along.
    There's multiple experts predicting such, as well as many predicting the downfall of the Eurozone.

    Its okay though, I totally understand that you're all salty about the result.
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    (Original post by Plagioclase)
    Except it's not just the IMF, it's the overwhelming majority of economists in the country (and internationally) including over ten nobel prize winning economists.
    (Original post by Plagioclase)
    So you're basically saying that economics isn't a legitimate area of study? That you know better than the majority of economists in the world? You don't feel a little bit foolish saying that?
    (Original post by Plagioclase)
    This is absolutely ridiculous. You are trusting someone who wrote a book that can be interpreted as predicting the 2008 financial crash over the entire economic establishment? You're discrediting every other economist on the basis of something that isn't even directly related to Brexit? This is one of the most extreme examples of cherry picking I have seen in a long time...

    Please don't pretend as if this guy has convinced you. You supported Brexit beforehand and you've simply decided to agree with this one individual because he's saying something you like. You're supporting him on the basis of a single book that he wrote.
    Have you ever studied economics?

    Allow me to inform you, as somebody who studies economics, that mainstream economics is mostly ********. It tends to say not very much at all in the most pretentious manner possible, not making particularly insightful predicts on any consistent basis.

    The majority of economists are mostly useless at this macroeconomic stuff!

    That said, I actually see very little about economists arguing that brexit will be bad for the UK in the long term. Of course, the wealthy economists themselves voting remain DOES NOT equal in anyway them arguing that brexit will be bad for the UK in the long term...

    Besides, lol. Can we not just hold up for a second and think why we actually care what the experts on such a topic say? It's an appeal to authority. It's a logical fallacy. If you do not know so much about the consequences of a particular vote that you must defer to whatever the 'experts' say (forgetting that what even constitutes an expert is very subjective) then you ought not vote at all!
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    (Original post by welshiee)
    There's multiple economists supporting Brexit.
    Oh, brilliant. Economists for Brexit has eight members. You've got to be using some incredibly special mental gymnastics to believe this tiny minority over the economic consensus. You have decided to ignore the credibility of the economic establishment on the basis of a single criterion that you've decided (or more likely, been told) is the only thing that matters. This is the very definition of cherry picking.
    (Original post by TorpidPhil)
    Have you ever studied economics?Allow me to inform you, as somebody who studies economics, that mainstream economics is mostly ********. It tends to say not very much at all in the most pretentious manner possible, not making particularly insightful predicts on any consistent basis.The majority of economists are mostly useless at this macroeconomic stuff!That said, I actually see very little about economists arguing that brexit will be bad for the UK in the long term. Of course, the wealthy economists themselves voting remain DOES NOT equal in anyway them arguing that brexit will be bad for the UK in the long term...
    As you probably know, I've got no background in economics. But when I've got the majority of economists telling me that Brexit is not going to be good for the UK economy, including some of the most prestigious economists in the world, and having attended some of their lectures where they sound like they're making a good argument, I'm convinced. I'm not an expert in economics nor am I qualified to make these judgments myself so I have to have faith in their academic integrity. If you're trained in economics and it's your professional opinion that Brexit isn't necessarily a bad thing for the UK economy, that's okay - I can respect that. But this isn't really the case for most people opposing the mainstream economic argument.
 
 
 
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