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    (Original post by swanderfeild)
    So after several days of continuous downturn, because one index gone up for one day means its suddenly "all fine"? So we haven't had credit rating downgraded, quarter of companies won't impose hiring freezes and move operations abroad, HSBC isn't planning to move thousand jobs from London to Paris, Morgan Stanley isn't planning to do same with 2000 jobs, companies aren't already moving investment to EU, and pound isn't at worse than in 2009. Clearly everything is fine because share values bounced back to recoup half the value it lost since referendum.
    Oh ffs do you follow this and talk about it so intensely every day of your life?
    Stop wishing for and talking up the hysteria, we have had recessions before, the world changes. Many remainers seem to act like it's all really bad and they are
    concerned, when in fact they are more interested in acting like propagandists and whipping up instability and hysteria so they can make it fail. Very irresponsible and negative. Why can't you be more objective and feature the long term beyond a few days or months into the picture? This is just really silly.
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    (Original post by swanderfeild)
    So after several days of continuous downturn, because one index gone up for one day means its suddenly "all fine"?
    No, look at the graph: even the drop was not a big deal. Not unprecedented even in just the past three months. The recovery is not the main point at all.
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    (Original post by Observatory)
    The claim about the Pound is also extremely misleading, although at least relatively specific. Let us look at the course ofthe value of the Pound against the Dollar:



    Almost all the value lost by the Pound was lost during the financial crisis. The Pound then suffered a much smaller drop that took it slightly below the 2008 trough, sending it back to the "lowest point for 30 years".

    Currencies are not stock markets. There is no expectation that their value will increase over time. Saying it is the lowest point for X years against some other currency is essentially meaningless.
    I often wonder if the people bleating out economic figures and whipping up want things to be worse for them to prove a point, or even they even care what it actually means. Isn't their argument over which is best, a fall or rise, within limits? I mean couldn't a fall be good for exports?
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    (Original post by gladders)
    Oil is at a historic low price, so by your reckoning Norway should be floundering right about now.
    The spot price of oil doesn't affect Norway much because they invest most of the revenues. Their spending from oil is drawn from their investment fund, not today's revenue.
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    (Original post by gladders)
    You think the Wall Street Crash happened over a weekend? It took months to hit bottom.
    Ah, you again.

    When did you become a finance expert? All I know is that you're a PhD in Constitutional law graduate who misunderstood what Brexit was all about and was absolutely wrong about the outcome.

    On Brexit, you and several others like you were wrong about the outcome. Live with it. The people have spoken. Respect it. You may have been agonizing over it as a result of the decision. Get over it.
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    Agreed. How do you think it'll affect the City?
    (Original post by Observatory)
    respected press organs like the BBC
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    I am not watching BBC and maybe even C4 after so much propagandist hysterical, biased, irresponsible bollox.
    Plenty of good politics on other sides. Temporary boycott I think, they are pissing me off.
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    (Original post by SaucissonSecCy)
    I am not watching BBC and maybe even C4 after so much propagandist hysterical, biased, irresponsible bollox.
    Plenty of good politics on other sides. Temporary boycott I think, they are pissing me off.
    I'm increasingly coming to think that reading the BBC makes me less knowledgeable than not reading it.

    I am not sure what is the best alternative.

    Perhaps a mix of Al-Jazeera, Russia Today, Stormfront, and the Peoples' Daily would be most reliable. Each group of crazies has the maximum incentive to expose all their opponents' dirty laundry, so I should get most of it from that mix.

    Comparing claims against data is also good though. Often they turn out to be *******s.
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    (Original post by SaucissonSecCy)
    People should try watching Max Keiser, or reading Peter Hitchens. Get out of the bubble of established wisdom and listen to an independent brain for once in your lives, it might do you good. #Rebrainwashed
    Why should I? Leave campaigned on the premise that experts are worthless, and you should just go with your gut. Are you saying that experts do matter now?
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    (Original post by Audrey18)
    Ah, you again.

    When did you become a finance expert?
    Didn't you hear? There are no experts any more. My opinion is as good as Mark Carney's, because Leave said so.

    All I know is that you're a PhD in Constitutional law graduate who misunderstood what Brexit was all about and was absolutely wrong about the outcome.
    Seems I'm being proved right day by day.

    On Brexit, you and several others like you were wrong about the outcome. Live with it. The people have spoken. Respect it. You may have been agonizing over it as a result of the decision. Get over it.
    Why should I respect an emotional and angry answer devoid of facts and knowledge?

    Why should I respect a vote where it's been exposed already that all the major spokespeople knowingly lied about everything, and are now backpedalling?

    Parliament is sovereign, and that's what I'll respect.
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    The fact is we are still technically In the EU. Let's see how well we do when we've triggered article 50?

    Oh, and for the brexiters to be right we can't have free movement of people from the EU. Which Merkel has been very explicit about.
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    (Original post by gladders)
    Why should I? Leave campaigned on the premise that experts are worthless, and you should just go with your gut. Are you saying that experts do matter now?
    Huh? They are not comparable people. They are nothing to do with establishment, no vested interests, just intelligent independent commentators. They have no stake in the status quo. What was so utterly depressing about remain was that all the advice came from the super rich, banks, bodies funded by the EU, the entire globalist establishment supported by quacking, indoctrinated, hectoring
    neo-liberals calling everyone racist, who don't even understand why the
    immigration is there, to serve the corporate and globalist agenda, as part of a deeply cynical authoritarian move towards more homogeneity, eventual global government and corporate dictatorship. It was also depressing how the media cannot
    behave objectively and are either indoctrinated themselves, or they are vessels for it, whilst assume they have a monopoly on morality, under the guise of being pro-diversity(actually EU migration is not diverse anyhow), whilst they support these deeply cynical forces and their stranglehold that benefit the few over the less
    privileged.
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    (Original post by SaucissonSecCy)
    Huh? They are not comparable people. They are nothing to do with establishment, just intelligent independent people. What was so utterly depressing about remain
    was that all the advice came from the super rich, banks, bodies funded by the EU, the entire globalist establishment supported by quacking, indoctrinated, hectoring
    neo-liberals calling everyone racist, who don't even understand why the
    immigration is there, to serve the corporate and globalist agenda, as part of a deeply cynical authoritarian move towards more homogeneity, eventual global government and corporate dictatorship. It was also depressing how the media cannot
    behave objectively and are either indoctrinated themselves, or they are vessels for it, whilst assume they have a monopoly on morality, under the guise of being pro-diversity(actually EU migration is not diverse anyhow), whilst they support these deeply cynical forces and their stranglehold that benefit the few over the less
    privileged.
    Ahhhh I see what you're saying now.

    Being authoritative on something isn't about actually knowing your stuff, it's about being establishment.

    Well, what we know about the establishment is, it's whatever you happen to dislike at that moment in time. Convenient that whoever is 'establishment' changes depending on what argument you're trying to make.

    So when you're trying to say leaving the EU would be good for business, bizarrely you discount the views of those who actually know their stuff, like, I don't know - big business.

    What next? Lung cancer is scaremongering, just ask Benson and Hedges because I happen not to think they are establishment? Or don't worry guys, the earth is actually flat. I know because I heard someone down the pub say so and I personally like them.

    You have absolutely no conception of intrinsic facts.
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    (Original post by gladders)
    Ahhhh I see what you're saying now.

    Being authoritative on something isn't about actually knowing your stuff, it's about being establishment.

    Well, what we know about the establishment is, it's whatever you happen to dislike at that moment in time. Convenient that whoever is 'establishment' changes depending on what argument you're trying to make.

    So when you're trying to say leaving the EU would be good for business, bizarrely you discount the views of those who actually know their stuff, like, I don't know - big business.

    What next? Lung cancer is scaremongering, just ask Benson and Hedges because I happen not to think they are establishment? Or don't worry guys, the earth is actually flat. I know because I heard someone down the pub say so and I personally like them.

    You have absolutely no conception of intrinsic facts.
    No, you are willfully misrepresenting what I said. Being authoritative is different to being interested in the truth for a start. Blair was authoritative, and took us into our worst foreign policy mistake based on lies. Being establishment is having a personal, self-serving interest in whether the status quo is preserved. If you are not establishment, and your viewpoint is not determined by personal gain, then you are in a better position to care about and promote justice or truth. Whether or not you are brainy is independent of this. I'd rather listen to intelligent and knowledgable people without any vested interest than people with personal gain ion mind who are part of large groupthink organizations.

    To the last bit, that's just baseless, I mean give me an example. you may be mixing up my arguments with someone else, I think it's extremely clear cut what establishment is nowadays, I could describe it to you. Aren't you a Blairite, that's a large part of it....
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    (Original post by SaucissonSecCy)
    No, you are willfully misrepresenting what I said. Being authoritative is different to being interested in the truth for a start. Blair was authoritative, and took us into our worst foreign policy mistake based on lies. Being establishment is having a personal, self-serving interest in whether the status quo is preserved. If you are not establishment, and your viewpoint is not determined by personal gain, then you are in a better position to care about and promote justice or truth. Whether or not you are brainy is independent of this. I'd rather listen to intelligent and knowledgable people without any vested interest than people with personal gain ion mind who are part of large groupthink organizations.
    Dude, everyone has vested interests. Not just the establishment (whatever that is - my point holds, that it's whatever you happen to dislike). You only disclaim these particular people - that you happen to agree with - as not establishment and somehow not having vested interests because you agree with them.

    I'll take the warnings of the Treasury and the IMF over whatever they say.

    Seriously. What's your take on climate change? Because the Government say it's happening and we should stop it, do you then think that the Viscount Ridley is not 'establishment' because he disagrees with them?

    To the last bit, that's just baseless, I mean give me an example. you may be mixing up my arguments with someone else, I think it's extremely clear cut what establishment is nowadays, I could describe it to you. Aren't you a Blairite, that's a large part of it....
    I am not a Blairite. What makes you say that? You're obsessed with him.
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    (Original post by gladders)
    I'll take the warnings of the Treasury and the IMF over whatever they say.

    Seriously. What's your take on climate change? Because the Government say it's happening and we should stop it, do you then think that the Viscount Ridley is not 'establishment' because he disagrees with them?



    I am not a Blairite. What makes you say that? You're obsessed with him.
    Short term problems. I voted for long term accountability, independence and one small step towards liberation from this globalist, corporatist, neoliberal prison, by looking at the big picture, the rest of the planet, the whole of history, and the future.
    EU membership, and fallout from leaving, is a minute blip compared to this.

    Climate change? I'm not a regressive, I think it's happening and it's man made. I also think EU membership(or not) will make absolutely sod all difference to it. I think we don't know what natural climate cycles will do in the future either. I assume some meteorologist does. I think you've mis-characterized me as some paranoid person who won't listen to objective evidence. It's just in the case of peoples wishes for large political unions, and the interests of elites and economic systems that are benefiting the few and decimating the many, I am appropriately cynical that any evidence in favour is 'objective' or from 'independent' sources that exist in a vacuum free of pressure from the rich and powerful. The issues aren't comparable.

    You're right I am a bit obsessed by Blair, it's because Labour(the so-called left) is hijacked by people who think he is wonderful, this fascinates me because his legacy is so disastrous.
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    Whether or not there will be a recession remains to be seen, but it's highly likely that the economy will suffer and that growth will slow, as a result of the senseless decision to leave the European Union. The long-term effects of Brexit are also more certain than the short-term effects, and all of the economists are saying that we'll see growth decline relative to what it would have been.

    It's very interesting to see that people who are usually so concerned about economic growth having a very irresponsible attitude.

    Of course, as Sam Bowman of the Adam Smith Institute points out, we saw the FTSE 250, with more UK-centric firms, seeing a fairly hefty drop of 7%. And if you look at the stocks whose earnings are most sensitive to UK investment spending, the falls are even more dramatic.

    Saying that "we're only back to where we were in February", etc, in terms of asset prices ignores the fact that prices have likely been factoring in the possibility of Brexit for many years now. If markets didn't build risks into prices, if they didn't react to expectations about the future, then the falls on Friday would have been larger – possibly enormous.

    "Only going back to where we were in February" is like saying that a recession only brings you back to where we were in 2002. If BP loses £5bn because of an oil spill, then later Tesco gains £5bn because it invents a new product, did the oil spill not cost us? I would say clearly it did – without the oil spill we'd be £5bn richer.

    The best possible outcome, as the Adam Smith Institute has said, would be to remain a member of the EEA and accept freedom of movement: this would preserve most of the economic benefits of the EU, including immigration. Whilst this would anger Brexiteers concerned about immigration, that's irrelevant: they won't be able to get a majority next time because they'll have lost the backing of pro-market, pro-immigration Tories.
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    (Original post by Observatory)
    I'm increasingly coming to think that reading the BBC makes me less knowledgeable than not reading it.

    I am not sure what is the best alternative.

    Perhaps a mix of Al-Jazeera, Russia Today, Stormfront, and the Peoples' Daily would be most reliable. Each group of crazies has the maximum incentive to expose all their opponents' dirty laundry, so I should get most of it from that mix.

    Comparing claims against data is also good though. Often they turn out to be *******s.
    The groupthink is depressing, really stifling. Maybe it will get better as the referendum becomes old news, but not sure. I don't know if RT is crazy, I just think Keiser report is really thought provoking.
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    (Original post by Observatory)


    Slightly exaggerated?
    Much too early to tell yet. We need to be looking at the results after 1,2,4,5,10, 15, 20 years to see what effect it has had on the economy. Going into recession wont be cool.
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    (Original post by SaucissonSecCy)
    I often wonder if the people bleating out economic figures and whipping up want things to be worse for them to prove a point, or even they even care what it actually means. Isn't their argument over which is best, a fall or rise, within limits? I mean couldn't a fall be good for exports?
    It is fantastic for exports. Businesses like JCB who export all over the world are laughing right now. Nothing stimulates demand in an economy like depreciation, it is like a shot of adrenaline.

    The big down side is that everything we import in will be more expensive. This particularly hurts people whos incomes are fixed like students and pensioners, public sector workers. Holidays will be more expensive. Food will be more expensive. Electronics will be more expensive.

    However the real economic impact of Brexit isn't the short term movements in currency. The real impact is the uncertainty. Because businesses don't know what the terms of Brexit will be, they are just going to do nothing and baton down the hatches. They will stop investing, they will stop hiring, they will start letting people go. Even export businesses that are profiting will do the same, simply because they don't know what the rules are going to be.

    Whether there will be a GDP recession in the next 6 months is hard to say because of the impact of the devaluation may outweigh the hit to investment and domestic spending. However what I'm pretty confident about is that job creation will grind to a halt and job destruction will increase as companies that suffer from Brexit start firing and companies that benefit will likely just work their staff harder and pay them a bonus rather than employ more people.
 
 
 
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