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Why there will be no Brexit...but lots of chaos for five years if we leave. Watch

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    (Original post by PilgrimOfTruth)
    What five years of limbo?

    Other countries are queued up wanting trade deals with us.
    It takes years to put together a trade deal. And the uk has to be out of the eu first.
    A new trade also deal,does not guarantee jobs.
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    But you can't enter any deals,for five years, till this is all sorted out, and businesses on edge or,leaving.
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    [QUOTE=Theplace;66259315]

    Parliament wont vote against it. Any atempt will see them punished at the next election for not respecting the wishes of the UK people.

    Royal assent is a complete red herring. The Queen approves what is put in front of her.

    They dont really have to analyse 40 years of laws all at once. They can simply decide to keep existing laws until they amend, repeal or replace them. They can do that during negotiations for the immediate exit statutes and then deal with te others later. its not a reason for delay beyond the 2 year negotiations. Its administrative. Your idea it will take 4 or 5 years is bogus.

    The UK voted to leave and unless or until they conjure up another way to have a referendum, then we are leaving. Accept it.
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    [QUOTE=999tigger;66265499][QUOTE=Theplace;66259315]

    Parliament wont vote against it. Any atempt will see them punished at the next election for not respecting the wishes of the UK people.

    Royal assent is a complete red herring. The Queen approves what is put in front of her.

    They dont really have to analyse 40 years of laws all at once. They can simply decide to keep existing laws until they amend, repeal or replace them. They can do that during negotiations for the immediate exit statutes and then deal with te others later. its not a reason for delay beyond the 2 year negotiations. Its administrative. Your idea it will take 4 or 5 years is bogus.

    The UK voted to leave and unless or until they conjure up another way to have a referendum, then we are leaving. Accept it.[/QUOTE

    I do not state matters that are not well researched. The four to five years is not my estimate, but,that of professionals. In theory,U.K. can invoke article 50 and the eu can take such a long time in negotiations, and be so difficult, that it leaves unfinished business, and all 27 states have to agree to an extension. The catch is that the eu will,not agree to negotiations until 50 is invoked.
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    (Original post by 999tigger)

    They dont really have to analyse 40 years of laws all at once. They can simply decide to keep existing laws until they amend, repeal or replace them. They can do that during negotiations for the immediate exit statutes and then deal with te others later. its not a reason for delay beyond the 2 year negotiations. Its administrative. Your idea it will take 4 or 5 years is bogus.
    The European trade mark system means that we have uniform trade mark laws and anybody can register a trade mark in one EU country and have it added to any other country. You can challenge a trade mark in the European Trade Mark registry and litigate that mark anywhere in Europe.

    You cannot simply continue that structure if we Brexit. You have to build a new structure. A lot of EU law is like that. They create structures that we are simply not going to have access to.

    The nearest we have ever been to this is the creation of the Irish Free State when Ireland suddenly ceased to have access to a lot of UK wide institutions. There was less bureaucracy in the 1920s and Ireland was a simpler society anyway. UK trade mark law started in 1875 and it applied to Ireland but Ireland didn't get its own trade mark system until 1927 and that had to be backdated 6 years to 1921 when the Irish Free State was established. Imagine the situation where a whole area of law vanishes for 6 years.

    Trade marks are one area of law and there are literally hundreds of others where the EU has had an impact.
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    (Original post by nulli tertius)
    The European trade mark system means that we have uniform trade mark laws and anybody can register a trade mark in one EU country and have it added to any other country. You can challenge a trade mark in the European Trade Mark registry and litigate that mark anywhere in Europe.

    You cannot simply continue that structure if we Brexit. You have to build a new structure. A lot of EU law is like that. They create structures that we are simply not going to have access to.

    The nearest we have ever been to this is the creation of the Irish Free State when Ireland suddenly ceased to have access to a lot of UK wide institutions. There was less bureaucracy in the 1920s and Ireland was a simpler society anyway. UK trade mark law started in 1875 and it applied to Ireland but Ireland didn't get its own trade mark system until 1927 and that had to be backdated 6 years to 1921 when the Irish Free State was established. Imagine the situation where a whole area of law vanishes for 6 years.

    Trade marks are one area of law and there are literally hundreds of others where the EU has had an impact.
    You can agree on transitional arrangements. We could agree to keep existing systems until repealed.
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    The UK will remain a full member of the EU throughout the negotiating period set out in Article 50, so it can only formally sign trade deals with other countries once it has left.
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    (Original post by nulli tertius)
    The Nissan factory in Sunderland builds more cars than Italy.


    1.6 million cars were built in the UK last year. That is the same as 1970
    The U.K. cannot enter into trade deals until it leaves the eu and it remains a member throughout the proceedings,
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    (Original post by 999tigger)
    You can agree on transitional arrangements. We could agree to keep existing systems until repealed.
    That has to be something we agree with the EU. We can't do this unilaterally any more than the Irish could say "continue using the London office me boy". If this was just trade marks we could get a deal in two years, but it isn't just trade marks. It is hundreds if not thousands of areas of law and different groups will be lobbying for their issue to be the priority.

    The music industry will be bothered about trade marks to protect merchandising,, but the food industry will be concerned about PDO rights (e.g where you can make stilton and champagne). The pharmaceutical industry will want patents prioritising whilst the computer industry and the media will want copyright looking at first. Then there are design rights and plant breeders rights and database rights.

    And when all said and done, intellectual property rights are only one small part of the law.
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    (Original post by Theplace)
    The U.K. cannot enter into trade deals until it leaves the eu and it remains a member throughout the proceedings,
    I do not see any problem with negotiating trade deals prior to leaving to take effect on departure.
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    (Original post by Theplace)
    The result of the referendum (a questionnaire) was unexpected, which is why noone prepared for a Brexit, not even the Leave party. Since remain was expected to win, many voted leave as a protest against matters that they had not voiced to the government before; oversubscribed hospitals, GPs, schools etc, mainly as the result of a recent wave of immigration starting ten years ago, and attracted to the UK for it's generous automatic housing and benefits package, and bypassing other eu countries to get it.
    However, many ordinary people in neglected areas who voted leave were also fed up by not having jobs or opportunities in their areas, since eu jobs and wealth had not reached them. Others were astute enough to see that the eu was not opaque, and was taking liberties with the U.Ks liberties.

    The people have voted. Leave won. That is not contested. (Though the means may well be, ie misrepresentation etc).
    However, the bill that authorised the referendum intentionally excluded any mention of it being pre approved by parliament, which it had in other bills post legislation, and as such, it needs to go before parliament to be approved, since it ipertains to future legislation. The houses have to look at it, analyse it and IF it is not in the best interest of,the U.K. it can decide not to approve it on those,grounds. It also needs Royal assent, which the queen usually gives, but parliament likely will not let it get that far and will not give it approval. They also have to overturn a bill to do this.
    This will take a very long time. Additionally, 40 years of laws have to be analysed and discussed, which will take about four to five years to do, even if the UK decides to invoke article 50. By then, the EU,will not exist as we know it and the U.K., Europe and world will be in flux. If the UK quickly says remain, the world can continue, and absorb this recent hit, both financially and emotionally. If the leaves stay firm, then there will be unrest for years to come and only lawyers profit.
    The only choice is to remain, and to invest the resources that the government will be spending on lawyers on the people and children of the U.K,creating good schools and jobs for the forgotten areas that need it most.
    All comments welcome.
    If Andrea Leadsom wins (and the party members are mad enough to choose her if she makes it through), we have the shadowy hand of Iain Duncan Smith in No 10. He has made it clear in the last parliament that he has no respect for the constitution or the rule of law when there are ordinary people's lives to be destroying. If Leadsom wins, the government will act unlawfully and trigger Article 50 without putting it through Parliament.
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    [QUOTE=999tigger;66265499]
    (Original post by Theplace)

    Parliament wont vote against it. Any atempt will see them punished at the next election for not respecting the wishes of the UK people.

    Royal assent is a complete red herring. The Queen approves what is put in front of her.

    They dont really have to analyse 40 years of laws all at once. They can simply decide to keep existing laws until they amend, repeal or replace them. They can do that during negotiations for the immediate exit statutes and then deal with te others later. its not a reason for delay beyond the 2 year negotiations. Its administrative. Your idea it will take 4 or 5 years is bogus.

    The UK voted to leave and unless or until they conjure up another way to have a referendum, then we are leaving. Accept it.
    If you would like it accepted like that, you need to petition for a revocation of the entire agreement it entered originally, which is a last ditch option. However even that will take years.
    Time is needed to get it right, and there will likely have to be a referendum to agree on a package. There is no quick exit.
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    (Original post by nulli tertius)
    That has to be something we agree with the EU. We can't do this unilaterally any more than the Irish could say "continue using the London office me boy". If this was just trade marks we could get a deal in two years, but it isn't just trade marks. It is hundreds if not thousands of areas of law and different groups will be lobbying for their issue to be the priority.

    The music industry will be bothered about trade marks to protect merchandising,, but the food industry will be concerned about PDO rights (e.g where you can make stilton and champagne). The pharmaceutical industry will want patents prioritising whilst the computer industry and the media will want copyright looking at first. Then there are design rights and plant breeders rights and database rights.

    And when all said and done, intellectual property rights are only one small part of the law.
    Nulli, thanks, these are the matters we need to consider, but it is so overwhelming we can't see the wood for the trees.Can you please elsborate and mention more industries.
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    (Original post by nulli tertius)
    That has to be something we agree with the EU. We can't do this unilaterally any more than the Irish could say "continue using the London office me boy". If this was just trade marks we could get a deal in two years, but it isn't just trade marks. It is hundreds if not thousands of areas of law and different groups will be lobbying for their issue to be the priority.

    The music industry will be bothered about trade marks to protect merchandising,, but the food industry will be concerned about PDO rights (e.g where you can make stilton and champagne). The pharmaceutical industry will want patents prioritising whilst the computer industry and the media will want copyright looking at first. Then there are design rights and plant breeders rights and database rights.

    And when all said and done, intellectual property rights are only one small part of the law.
    Funnily, just prior to the election, a friend could not get his meds at Boots. Apparently they had been bought up wholesale, by a company in the eu. Maybe the eu was more realistic about an exit than the UK.
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    (Original post by scrotgrot)
    If Andrea Leadsom wins (and the party members are mad enough to choose her if she makes it through), we have the shadowy hand of Iain Duncan Smith in No 10. He has made it clear in the last parliament that he has no respect for the constitution or the rule of law when there are ordinary people's lives to be destroying. If Leadsom wins, the government will act unlawfully and trigger Article 50 without putting it through Parliament.
    If that occurs, there will be legal challenges which will disrupt the two year negotiations, and the U.K. will end up with nothing. This is a case for ensuring the correct procedure is agreed on prior, which will also take years.

    Returning to the original question, what happens in the two to four years of chaos...to business, jobs, people. Brexit will bring thousands if not millions of economic migrants to the uk to save their seat, businesses leave out of uncertainly, and those mobile enough from the uk will head to dirk pe to live an work. The U.K. will be left with seniors and extra economic migrants requiring benefits and housing, and the few in the labour force will have to work harder to support them.
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    (Original post by nulli tertius)
    I do not see any problem with negotiating trade deals prior to leaving to take effect on departure.
    It will take a while before The U.K. knows what entering into a trade deal means..is it negotiating?
    Also a big question is confidentiality.
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    (Original post by PilgrimOfTruth)
    What five years of limbo?

    Other countries are queued up wanting trade deals with us.
    (Original post by PilgrimOfTruth)
    What five years of limbo?

    Other countries are queued up wanting trade deals with us.
    (Original post by PilgrimOfTruth)
    What five years of limbo?

    Other countries are queued up wanting trade deals with us.
    (Original post by PilgrimOfTruth)
    What five years of limbo?

    Other countries are queued up wanting trade deals with us.
    Of course other countries want to trade with us, we have money, so far. But what are the terms of the trade deals?

    There is no point New Zealand selling us lamb or Brazil selling us sugar if they don't want to buy any of our goods because our industries can't export to them and increases our trade deficit.
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    (Original post by Theplace)
    Nulli, thanks, these are the matters we need to consider, but it is so overwhelming we can't see the wood for the trees.Can you please elsborate and mention more industries.
    We have no system any more for reviewing cross-border mergers. If Microsoft and Google want to merge, Australia will review whether that is in the Australian national interest and impose obligations if it isn't. The EU reviews whether this is in the French and the Dutch and the UK national interest.

    We have numerous treaties with the rest of the world for conducting cross border litigation such as contractual disputes or enforcing child support maintenance but for many years our dealings with EU states have been governed by EU Regulations. We, of course, can continue to accept documents compliant with the EU scheme but will the other 27 countries accept documents from us drawn up in the EU format or will we reset the clock to the treaties in existence in 1973. They will be much more primitive than those we now have with non-EU counties. Some EU members didn't even exist in 1973.

    Will EU states recognise a UK issued vehicle type approval certificate http://www.dft.gov.uk/vca/vehicletyp...-directive.asp after we Brexit? There are lots of specialist vehicle manufacturers so this isn't all about Ford and Honda. There are lots of type approval regimes for safety critical manufactured products and generally speaking approval in one EU country is approval in all.

    Generally the problems will be (a) where an EU body is involved in the process and we will not, without agreement, have access to that body (b) where there is uncertainty about whether EU countries will continue to accept pre-Brexit authorisations/approvals/permits given by UK bodies after Brexit (c) whether post-Brexit authorisations/approvals/permits given by UK bodies in EU law format will be accepted by EU countries and (d) what happens in the case of (b) and (c) to the myriad changes in the law and practice that the UK and EU make every year for non-Brexit reasons. How does continuity work when things are being changed all the time?
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    (Original post by PilgrimOfTruth)
    Businesses fled the UK years ago. We lost our car manufacturers and most other manufacturers who had previously had long standing industries in the UK for 100s of years. Britain needs to start manufacturing again. The wealthy 1% who don't like it are welcome to go elsewhere. Britain doesn't need to be the greatest country on Earth. It just needs to be self-sufficient, self-governing and regain control of its laws, finances and resources.
    Out of curiosity, what is it about leaving the EU that will suddenly cause us all to start manufacturing again?

    It will be very hard to be self-sufficient and still maintain our quality of life. The UK hasn't been truly self-sufficient for hundreds of years.

    Also you do realise 48% of people voted for this? Many normal people value tolerance and prosperity, not just the 1% who frankly are probably the best placed to ride this out, unlike the rest of us.
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    (Original post by seaholme)
    Out of curiosity, what is it about leaving the EU that will suddenly cause us all to start manufacturing again?

    It will be very hard to be self-sufficient and still maintain our quality of life. The UK hasn't been truly self-sufficient for hundreds of years.

    Also you do realise 48% of people voted for this? Many normal people value tolerance and prosperity, not just the 1% who frankly are probably the best placed to ride this out, unlike the rest of us.
    Correct: The U.K. has currently no ability to do anything for thei eleven, let alone their children and grandchildren. This now will allow the govs to tax higher and impose a real austerity budget on its people that will finish them off.
    Today a young person applying for a few jobs was sent letters by all the companies saying that they would not be hiring due to Brexit.
 
 
 
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