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    (Original post by Napp)
    I have my eyebrow firmly raised at Britain getting anything better..
    1]we have no clout compred to the EU market
    2]we will loose all EU protection at the expense of making a few extra pounds in trade i.e. little man gets screwed like the asians just did with TPP.
    1) Which is why clear statements have been made that negotiations with the EU are a waste of time, awkward, and fruitless in comparison (I mean, then there's the empirical evidence on top of that).
    2) care to give these protections, or are you going to go for the same line that was used out on the campaign trail that magically things enshrined in UK law to higher standards than the EU directives demands are suddenly going to disappear the day after we leave?
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    (Original post by MagicNMedicine)
    What trade deals is the UK starting?
    Good question.

    EU rules state that individual members cannot make trade deals on their own. So while we are in the EU, we won't be putting pen to paper and getting any hard and fast deals. *
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    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    1) Which is why clear statements have been made that negotiations with the EU are a waste of time, awkward, and fruitless in comparison (I mean, then there's the empirical evidence on top of that).
    2) care to give these protections, or are you going to go for the same line that was used out on the campaign trail that magically things enshrined in UK law to higher standards than the EU directives demands are suddenly going to disappear the day after we leave?
    Mmm throwing in the gauntlet with the largest market, thats definitely a smart move...
    This is under the assumption Britain gets dragged down the Brexit campaigners promised path of severing all ties with the EU in terms of laws and regulations which 'stiffle us' . Because lets face it the british government would happily take a UScentric approach to the consumer in that they're treated like garbage because revenue is more important.
    Lastly why would they dissapear overnight? It would take yeaars and years to untangle that web and thats assuming these oiks had actually made a plan.
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    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    1) Which is why clear statements have been made that negotiations with the EU are a waste of time, awkward, and fruitless in comparison (I mean, then there's the empirical evidence on top of that).
    2) care to give these protections, or are you going to go for the same line that was used out on the campaign trail that magically things enshrined in UK law to higher standards than the EU directives demands are suddenly going to disappear the day after we leave?
    Why are negotiations with the EU a waste of time? Dont we make most of our money there?

    What is the empirical evidence you talk about?
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    (Original post by InnerTemple)
    Good question.

    EU rules state that individual members cannot make trade deals on their own. So while we are in the EU, we won't be putting pen to paper and getting any hard and fast deals. *
    The Common Commercial Policy stops signing of deals, not the negotiation, technically there is nothing they can do to stop us having everything done short of actually signing deals. There is nothing that says we couldn't, in theory, having a trade deal ready to sign with all 178 non EU states recognised by the UN, plus one with the EU, all to be signed the second we have officially left the EU to come into force immediately. Obviously that will never happen, for a start good look with North Korea, but the point still stands.
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    (Original post by MagicNMedicine)
    What trade deals is the UK starting?

    All this says is "during his trip, Mr Javid will also meet Indian government officials in Delhi to discuss how the trading relationship with India might work with the UK outside the European Union."

    I will make a couple of predictions:
    1. We will not have a trade deal in place with India for at least 7 years, possibly 10.

    2. When we do have a trade deal in place with India, it will become hated by a lot of people in the UK in the same way that free movement is, because when we open up our markets to India it will mean UK firms face competition from low wage Indian firms that, unless the UK seriously drops wages, will start taking our business. This will also involve services as well as a trade deal would make it easier to outsource work: IT, accounts etc will get done over in India as they will be better able to compete for our contracts. This will have an interesting political dynamic because a lot of middle class UK professionals that probably don't mind the idea of foreign low wage manufacturing competing jobs away from British workers, might not like it when they start seeing the wages of accountants, actuaries, insurance professionals driven down to Indian levels to be able to compete.
    Agreed. But UK business has already experimented with outsourcing to Ibdia and China and owing to a significantly different cultural differences and attitudes to work much of it has come back again. I ran a team of developers in India and China and without a doubt it was a nightmare at best and a total false economy. That said it won't be long before China and India discover how to do innovation on a mass scale. Then we are screwed.
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    (Original post by InnerTemple)
    Good question.

    EU rules state that individual members cannot make trade deals on their own. So while we are in the EU, we won't be putting pen to paper and getting any hard and fast deals. *
    It does seem like there's a lot of barrel scraping for good news going on from some Brexiters.

    Sajid Javid going to India on a pre-arranged visit and saying he's going to talk about the new trading relationship is not evidence of us making things happen on the trade front.

    Now what is true is that over the next 50 years, emerging markets are going to be more significant for us than the EU is, and so striking the right trade deals will be important to us. Whether we can do that more efficiently outside the EU we will see. We should certainly be able to conclude things more quickly on our own, but we're more at risk of basically getting trade deals on the terms the emerging markets want, especially if we appear to be too keen to complete deals.

    And as I mentioned before, people will have to accept that opening market access to emerging markets will have quite far reaching consequences for the UK. People even today complain if you call a call centre its usually in India etc and they don't like that, but with a trade deal that opens markets, it will be part of general life that things like your banking, insurance, auditing, IT services will be done by Indians in India - and it will be cheaper than paying Brits to do it here, but if you are in those sectors your wages and employment opportunities will be lower.

    Indian firms like Tata will be increasingly able to expand in to the UK market, perhaps the Aldis and Lidls of the future will be Indian stores, Indians will own and manage many of our factories, warehouses etc, they will be able to import tariff free cheap stock made by their subsidiary businesses in India and base in the UK to sell cheaply here.

    I think a lot of people think this stuff about "striking trade deals" means "something generally good for the economy": well it depends who you are. If you work in the aerospace sector or manufacture advanced metals, pharmaceuticals etc then your main export market is middle to rich income people (which is currently EU and US), over the coming decades, a lot of Indians will enter that income bracket so there is a huge new market that you can sell to. But if you're in a sector that the Indians can do more cheaply, then you will be worse off.
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    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    There is nothing that says we couldn't, in theory, having a trade deal ready to sign with all 178 non EU states recognised by the UN, plus one with the EU, all to be signed the second we have officially left the EU to come into force immediately.
    The biggest practical barriers are:
    - the UK hasn't negotiated those kind of deals for decades as its done through the EU
    - in the past 5 years the government has slashed down the size of Whitehall and it is already going to have its hands full with dealing with the legislative impacts of Brexit
    - it will take considerable expense and time to build up the level of experience needed to go out in to the world and get good trade deals
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    (Original post by ByEeek)
    Agreed. But UK business has already experimented with outsourcing to Ibdia and China and owing to a significantly different cultural differences and attitudes to work much of it has come back again. I ran a team of developers in India and China and without a doubt it was a nightmare at best and a total false economy. That said it won't be long before China and India discover how to do innovation on a mass scale. Then we are screwed.
    I guess it will be difficult to outsource most things due to data protection
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    (Original post by Jee1)
    I guess it will be difficult to outsource most things due to data protection
    Not really. If anything offshoring data is a good way of avoiding data protection laws. That said, thankfully the EU ruled against the practices used by the likes of Google and Facebook that were anti-data-protection. Hang on wait - oh dear - another step backwards.
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    (Original post by MagicNMedicine)
    The biggest practical barriers are:
    - the UK hasn't negotiated those kind of deals for decades as its done through the EU
    - in the past 5 years the government has slashed down the size of Whitehall and it is already going to have its hands full with dealing with the legislative impacts of Brexit
    - it will take considerable expense and time to build up the level of experience needed to go out in to the world and get good trade deals
    But also the simple fact that we can't finalise the deals until we leave the EU.

    It means we have to keep the negotiations alive for, perhaps, years. And who knows what'll change in that time.

    I'm still struggling to see the benefits of Brexit. But I'm hoping to be impressed...*
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    (Original post by 999tigger)
    Why are negotiations with the EU a waste of time? Dont we make most of our money there?

    What is the empirical evidence you talk about?
    Actually most of our economy is domestic sales, in fact 8 or 9 times our EU exports. And it's a case of the EU being slow and ineffective with any country with even a bit of clout, Singapore took the EU years, took everybody else less than 18 months, and there are several things being held up now by irrelevant matters. Talks with the EU are slow and even when over there is no guarantee nobody will hold it to ransom.

    (Original post by Napp)
    Mmm throwing in the gauntlet with the largest market, thats definitely a smart move...
    This is under the assumption Britain gets dragged down the Brexit campaigners promised path of severing all ties with the EU in terms of laws and regulations which 'stiffle us' . Because lets face it the british government would happily take a UScentric approach to the consumer in that they're treated like garbage because revenue is more important.
    Lastly why would they dissapear overnight? It would take yeaars and years to untangle that web and thats assuming these oiks had actually made a plan.
    So what are these protections? You're saying they're there but aren't saying what they are.

    In which way are we using the term "market" here, if we're simply looking at GDP it will be far from the biggest post Brexit, China will be overtaking into second by the end of the decade. A few interesting things to consider are that with the change in exchange rates our trade deficit with the EU has soared, probably about the £100bn mark now and that's using one of the more conservative starting points, over £100bn if we went to WTO rules and there were not changes in trade (but our exports are strengthened and the EU exports to the UK are weakened) and those changes are enough that tariffs imposed on UK exports are more than compensated for, WTO tariffs on goods sold now would still be cheaper than pre-brexit tariff free trade, meanwhile going the other way costs will be up getting on for 20%. Boosts exports and shifts the import base to newly competitive countries.
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    (Original post by MagicNMedicine)
    The biggest practical barriers are:
    - the UK hasn't negotiated those kind of deals for decades as its done through the EU
    - in the past 5 years the government has slashed down the size of Whitehall and it is already going to have its hands full with dealing with the legislative impacts of Brexit
    - it will take considerable expense and time to build up the level of experience needed to go out in to the world and get good trade deals
    I guess you forgot the Kiwis are lending us their teams, and we can employ foreign negotiators until such a time that ours are skilled enough
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    No consumer protections
    No workers' rights
    No environmental standards
    Just watch it happen.
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    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    I guess you forgot the Kiwis are lending us their teams, and we can employ foreign negotiators until such a time that ours are skilled enough
    Right, no conflict of interest there then...

    And you can't even call these foreign negotiators traitors when they sell our country out from under us.
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    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    Actually most of our economy is domestic sales, in fact 8 or 9 times our EU exports. And it's a case of the EU being slow and ineffective with any country with even a bit of clout, Singapore took the EU years, took everybody else less than 18 months, and there are several things being held up now by irrelevant matters. Talks with the EU are slow and even when over there is no guarantee nobody will hold it to ransom.

    .
    Then you will understand the importance of exports and balance of trade.

    Whats your empircal evidence?

    Shouldnt we be focusing on the place where we currently do business and upon which jobs depend?
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    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    So what are these protections? You're saying they're there but aren't saying what they are.

    In which way are we using the term "market" here, if we're simply looking at GDP it will be far from the biggest post Brexit, China will be overtaking into second by the end of the decade. A few interesting things to consider are that with the change in exchange rates our trade deficit with the EU has soared, probably about the £100bn mark now and that's using one of the more conservative starting points, over £100bn if we went to WTO rules and there were not changes in trade (but our exports are strengthened and the EU exports to the UK are weakened) and those changes are enough that tariffs imposed on UK exports are more than compensated for, WTO tariffs on goods sold now would still be cheaper than pre-brexit tariff free trade, meanwhile going the other way costs will be up getting on for 20%. Boosts exports and shifts the import base to newly competitive countries.
    Are you asking what economic impacts i see from this?
    lets see;
    Britain will likely loose its bank passport which is why london is the financial capital.
    Airlines not in the EU need a special license to fly within its airspace, the head of easyjet has already said moving the headquarters out of britain is a possibility
    no more free trade there will be tariffs
    currency has panned which will leave holiday makers out of pocket but also any business which has to import goods [effectively cancelling out any gains made from cheap exports]
    due to the market turmoil we've seen billions wiped off the markets which in turn has sucker punched mutul funds, pensions etc.
    If they go through with the threat of asking EU citizens to leave a vastamount of essential labour will be lost which cant be replced for instance nurses and you can bet your hat that there will be punitive responses from europe
    Many businesses are blended with ones in Europe such as unilever, Shell, Eads and so on and you can bet that they will be re-evaluating their presence in the UK now.
    I can go on all day if you like?
    All this being said if the commonwealth realms forgive Britain for ignoring them a trade block with them would be second to none.
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    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    So what are these protections? You're saying they're there but aren't saying what they are.
    I guess he is referring to things like the various consumer protection measures implemented by the EU and employment rights.
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    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    I guess you forgot the Kiwis are lending us their teams, and we can employ foreign negotiators until such a time that ours are skilled enough
    Whilst the offer of support from NZ trade officials is helpful, it is not a credible strategy for the UK to base its trade strategy on the back of a few foreign trade negotiators from a much smaller country.

    There will be people that are skilled in trade economics in UK universities - largely academics, and there will be economic consultancies, and then there will be lawyers who understand international law and trade treaties, and professional negotiators, and to have a proper trade strategy we will need all of these in place to have a suitable capacity worthy of a large economy trying to get better terms for itself than what it would get using the EUs trade officials.

    So this is possible but it will take time and it will take money. So there will have to be some will from government. Unfortunately the general direction up to now has been to cut capacity - they are cheese paring down the Foreign Office which in the grand scheme of things saves very little out of national expenditure but it means losing officials with a lot of experience and given the tight pay restraints in the civil service it isn't easy to attract people from outside as the salaries are relatively low for London. So there will have to be some political will to spend money and spend some time building up capacity. We do have time - while the Brexit negotiations are taking place we can start doing this, but there won't be trade deals being agreed informally.
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    (Original post by scrotgrot)
    Right, no conflict of interest there then...

    And you can't even call these foreign negotiators traitors when they sell our country out from under us.
    Not to mention its that team of negotiators who sold us up the creek with TPP which is widely loathed by us.
 
 
 
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