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A new realignment of British politics Watch

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    (Original post by Davij038)
    Rakas21 possible, but if as we both agree Corbyn suceeds in The labour contest the tories will see no need to be pragmatic. Secondly, however half heartedly May backed remain and is the 'establishment' choice. Thirdly, grassroots especially the older voters will very much be pro Leadsom. She won't have Corbyn's mandate but I don't think she will be too far off.

    Hopefully Corbyn and Leadsom will be too much for the moderates and a new party based in the Stronger In campaign links will be formed.

    As Fraser Nelson says, in any normal contest May would have this in the bag- but things stopped being normal some time ago.
    The existence of Ukip has creamed off a lot of the Tory nutters. I don't trust the membership 100% but i have faith and what polling evidence so far we have suggests i'm right to.
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    (Original post by Rakas21)
    The existence of Ukip has creamed off a lot of the Tory nutters. I don't trust the membership 100% but i have faith and what polling evidence so far we have suggests i'm right to.
    Andrea Leadsom has come this far and has the support of a good chunk of MPs and financial backing, plus front runners traditional fail. Mores the pity, Ckarke would have made a great PM...

    Oh and: http://metro.co.uk/2016/07/09/andrea...chief-5997127/

    My faith in polls is long gone.

    We'll see
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    (Original post by Davij038)
    Andrea Leadsom has come this far and has the support of a good chunk of MPs and financial backing, plus front runners traditional fail. Mores the pity, Ckarke would have made a great PM...

    Oh and: http://metro.co.uk/2016/07/09/andrea...chief-5997127/

    My faith in polls is long gone.

    We'll see
    Not since at least the 60's has the party voted for the option furthest to the right. It 's highly unlikely that they will start now.
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    (Original post by Rakas21)
    Not since at least the 60's has the party voted for the option furthest to the right. It 's highly unlikely that they will start now.
    Eh? Heath and Macmillian werent that right wing.
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    (Original post by Davij038)
    Eh? Heath and Macmillian werent that right wing.
    I meant in the leadership elections.
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    (Original post by Rakas21)
    I meant in the leadership elections.


    Ah I see, do you know they elected leaders back in those days?

    Heath was massively anti Powell, the only person he hated more was thatcher!
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    (Original post by Davij038)
    Ah I see, do you know they elected leaders back in those days?

    Heath was massively anti Powell, the only person he hated more was thatcher!
    Yeah, just MP's and before that a group of Lords. At any rate, the furthest right option never won. Even in 05, Cameron was the eco friendly, hug a con option while Davis more an interesting classically liberal kind of option.
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    (Original post by Rakas21)
    Not since at least the 60's has the party voted for the option furthest to the right. It 's highly unlikely that they will start now.
    I think in 2001 when it was IDS, Clarke and Portillo, IDS would have been the one furthest to the right because whilst Portillo was very free market, small state economically he was much more of a social liberal than the Tory grassroots.
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    (Original post by Rakas21)
    The last point is interesting and certainly a possibility however it depends on people believing the EU to be as important an issue as the mass unemployment of the 80's was. While i can certainly believe that there are areas in London which love diversity so much they'd hate the Tories for it, it's hard to imagine that the cities outside view it as a secondary issue and so it won't get as much traction i feel.
    I don't think it's so much an issue of diversity, its that the Middle England Remainers believe strongly that the UK's economy will be damaged by leaving the EU. Whether they are right or wrong in this, it's a very strongly held belief, as can be seen by the way they have reacted. And so given they have started from this belief, they are going to blame any negative news on the economy on Brexit and it will reaffirm their belief "we told you so".

    We might see a mirror image movement now of the long standing Eurosceptics who blamed everything under the sun on the "bureaucratic EU", now we will get a load of disillusioned Remainers who will say "if we were still in the EU this wouldn't have happened".

    If the UK economy outperforms Europe it will dispel this, because as the Leave campaign pointed out during the referendum, we had this kind of movement in favour of the Euro and a lot of business people saying it would be madness for the UK to be sat on the sidelines when the Euro went ahead - but the respective economic performances of us vs the Eurozone countries dispelled that. So if the UK economy goes from strength to strength while the EU stagnates, it will vindicate the decision to go for Brexit and in this scenario I can see the Conservatives thriving in future and increasing their vote share.

    But a stagnant economy will cause problems. A problem that will build for the Conservatives is if they have a long time in government in which the majority of the population's lives just get gradually tougher and they don't appear to do anything about it. It's even happening to the young people of Middle England - they come out of university saddled with debt and end up in house shares through their 20s and increasingly in to their 30s, spending increasing proportions of their income (with flat wage growth) on rent which is just enriching landlords and making it harder for them to save themselves. Now on Tory blogs, comments on Tory broadsheets newspaper websites, the usual response is "stop moaning, the country doesn't owe you a living, generation snowflake needs to realise it can't have everything its own way". Tory members might feel self-congratulatory over this kind of sentiment, but it does lock in a general anti-Tory resentment amongst that generation which won't go away unless they actually start improving peoples' lives.

    For the Conservative party to extend their appeal they have to start making the dream of being able to have prospects of increasing their earnings in the job market, accessing affordable housing, happen for more and more people. The big charge that is pointed at the Conservatives is they are primarily a party concerned with the interests of the already wealthy. The Bullingdon boys Cameron and Osborne worsened this image by pratting around in the Commons brushing off questions about serious issues by making jokes about Labour and the Lib Dems to entertain their own backbenchers. Theresa May would at least behave like an adult but the jury is out on whether she would really be able to enact socially transformative policy. My guess on May is she would lead a 'safe pair of hands' government - not doing much policy wise, just focusing on navigating the UK through a potential Brexit storm.
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    (Original post by Rakas21)
    The OP is an interesting fantasy however let me paint another picture..

    The Conservative members elect May over Leadsom, not by a significant margin but by a comfortable one (say 60-40). The UK leaves the EU in 2019 with some kind of EU immigration quota in return for the single market but free movement has ended, a cap exists. Her reign to 2020 is not especially eventful and she contends with a weak but not quite flat economy but the people approve of her more than not viewing her as a pretty safe pair of hands.

    Corbyn survives the leadership election but is wounded, after several months of public spats with a parliamentary party who won't obey him the combination of deselection and an approaching election mean that many grudgingly get in line as they realise they've lost.

    Ukip elect a new leader and move to the left as they aim to exploit Labour's weakness in the northern heartlands of Labour. The leak from the Tories largely stops but is still a danger than haunts the government. They lose councilors however as each year progresses with little polling movement.

    The Liberals make slow gains in council elections and the like but are hampered by the Greens.

    The result..

    As polling day approaches we see that the Conservatives after boundary reform are odds on to keep their government with an increased majority, the Conservative vote share increases a little to 38-39% with a few shock victories in Wales, Scotland and Manchester and Labour although pleasing their base and making some progress in the south,increasing their vote share in London are largely unable to cut through from the Midlands northward and lose a small amount of vote share with 29-30% of the vote as they go backward in Scotland, the north of England and Wales. Ukip although gaining a little in the north persist in not being able to take the Tory hearlands and poll around a similar to last time with the Liberals and Greens gaining slightly too.

    Moral of the story is that those dreaming of a great revolution will probably be dissapointed at the ballot box at least. The election in 2020 may see a new set of leaders but it will produce a largely 'as you were' result at a national level.
    God damn it, more Internet points for you. I'm now dependent on the bravery of labour moderates leaving... Christ.
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    (Original post by welshiee)
    Nah.

    The true democratic socialist left will rise and this liberal corporatist ******** will be delivered the deathblow it deserves.

    Once the UK is officially out of the EU the key argument, immigration, will have been settled which will make UKIP irrelevant for many people. This is why Corbyn wants Article 50 submitted as soon as possible as there will be plenty of Old Labour voters in the heartlands up North and in Wales who will then switch their attention to things such as renationalising the railways, heavy investment and protection of the NHS and the backing of the trade unions.

    What we're seeing are the peasants of the country taking their country back step-by-step and the first step was to reclaim it from the corporatist racket that is the EU. However, those thinking that is the final destination are deluding themselves. This is a long drawn out revolt against the political and corporate elite that the working class have come to loathe.
    You're in a better mood, now, you've swayed the other way. I personally think there must be three new parties. The Social and Economic liberals from all main parties could be one. 'Old' (Patriotic, more conservative, bothered about the national interest and poverty_Labour, another. And some social conservative, patriotic 'old school' Tories in another. You may get coalitions, but what I think you might see, what would be really interesting, is if the latter two began to dominate.....
    It is clear that the parties and BBC keep telling people they should think something else than they do, we need politics that represent the people. I think a load would still be sold on the neo-liberalism, but it may die out over time. Interesting stuff. But clearly it would be much better not to have these phony parties all doing those policies of the last 20 years and pretending to be adversarial, and living off ancient tribal labels...there has been nothing 'Labour' about labour for eons, and nothing vry conservative about the conservatives. I guess I'm stating the obvious, but it would be pretty depressing if we just went back to the same thing-Labour, for example, shows little sign of waking up. We may just go back to more blairism and fake tribes of Labour and evil Tories. We should have completely different labels and new representative parties. Knowing England, I am not overly optimistic about change occurring, we are plodders and even the EU thing has been turned into total hysteria, disproportionately. I really hope it happens though.
 
 
 
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