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IMF say there won't be a recession after all watch

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    (Original post by TercioOfParma)
    The same experts who didn't predict the 2008 recession?
    The same experts that predict "make the EU more powerful or you will be utterly obliterated" as per Norway, ERM, Euro, Brexit, etc

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    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    And when projections are still wrong then and there still hasn't been recession, when is the next point we have to wait for?

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    How can you sound so sure when no reputable source backs you up?
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    OP hasn't even given a source, this seems falsified and the classic "scaremonger" rhetoric where brexiters are apparently "sick of experts" because they know better.
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    (Original post by fksociety)
    How can you sound so sure when no reputable source backs you up?
    Are you suggesting that the default economic position is recession? There isn't a single reputable source saying there will be recession and it is an extraordinary position.

    (Original post by fksociety)
    OP hasn't even given a source, this seems falsified and the classic "scaremonger" rhetoric where brexiters are apparently "sick of experts" because they know better.
    It appears you are incapable of spotting hyperlinks, because sources are provided, or do you think the FT doesn't constitute a source?

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    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    Are you suggesting that the default economic position is recession? There isn't a single reputable source saying there will be recession and it is an extraordinary position.
    Im talking about the possible risk of recession. There are plenty of sources that say this. We havent even triggered article 50 yet and youre already calling that we're going to be fine because the default economic position is not recession.
    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    It appears you are incapable of spotting hyperlinks, because sources are provided, or do you think the FT doesn't constitute a source?Posted from TSR Mobile
    Not everyone has subscribed to it. If you dont mind, you can copy and paste it for me and i would be grateful if you do. Ive also had a look at the IMF website But the title only says they have cut their growth position and the website doesnt suggest that there wont be a recession which leads me to believe that you have fabricated this.
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    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    The same experts that predict "make the EU more powerful or you will be utterly obliterated" as per Norway, ERM, Euro, Brexit, etc

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    Exactly, there is no such thing as a true expert.
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    (Original post by fksociety)
    Im talking about the possible risk of recession. There are plenty of sources that say this. We havent even triggered article 50 yet and youre already calling that we're going to be fine because the default economic position is not recession.
    Not everyone has subscribed to it. If you dont mind, you can copy and paste it for me and i would be grateful if you do. Ive also had a look at the IMF website But the title only says they have cut their growth position and the website doesnt suggest that there wont be a recession which leads me to believe that you have fabricated this.
    I'll find another source tomorrow, although I would be surprised if they don't have on their site the figures.

    And I am not saying it's fine (although I'm not a short termist so I don't necessarily see it as relevant), I'm merely saying that once again the europhiles should have bitten their tongue.

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    Brexit plunges UK economy to worst level since 2009, data suggests

    Data from Markit's Purchasing Manager's Index, or PMI, shows a fall to to 47.7 in July, the lowest level since April in 2009. A reading below 50 indicates contraction.
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    It's because of project fear!! You aren't thinking enough happy thoughts! If you pretended nothing bad was happening it would all be okay!!! It's the remainers' fault!!!
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    (Original post by JordanL_)
    It's because of project fear!! You aren't thinking enough happy thoughts! If you pretended nothing bad was happening it would all be okay!!! It's the remainers' fault!!!
    You're being sarcastic but that's actually true.

    If consumer confidence drops through all these bad vibes and that is what it is vibes as we haven't left and no one has been affected yet.

    Then people shop less


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    (Original post by paul514)
    You're being sarcastic but that's actually true.

    If consumer confidence drops through all these bad vibes and that is what it is vibes as we haven't left and no one has been affected yet.

    Then people shop less


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    But at the same time there are things stimulating the economy more than usual because of the vote. The weaker pound and terror threats abroad are leading to a significant increase on people going on domestic rather than international holidays as well ad an increase in foreign tourism (and stronger exports) with the weaker pound

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    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    But at the same time there are things stimulating the economy more than usual because of the vote. The weaker pound and terror threats abroad are leading to a significant increase on people going on domestic rather than international holidays as well ad an increase in foreign tourism (and stronger exports) with the weaker pound

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    Yes I wouldn't deny that, so what? I'm not saying anything is positive or negative simply that this vibe that is being spread serves nobody any good and is damaging than if it were not around.


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    Surprising. We shall have to monitor this

    Personally i'm a strong pound man. The disinflationary effects are almost always superior at creating jobs nationally than exports in a developed nation where quality is a big factor. . That's not to say i don't want more exports of course.
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    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    But a week before the referendum the IMF was suggesting that there would be a recession next year if we were to vote to leave, whereas today they have turned almost 180 on this and merely said that growth will be weaker, but still 1.5% this year and 1.3% next year.

    It is also the largest cut for any major economy as a result of the referendum result, but still gives higher growth forecasts than both France and Germany.
    I know this might shock the pro-Remain supporters of TSR and elsewhere, but it's quite simple:

    People/organizations with vested interests sometimes lie.

    I know, even high and mighty institutions of experts and professionals are still human and still lie.

    Mind blown.
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    (Original post by TercioOfParma)
    Exactly, there is no such thing as a true expert.
    That's not fair. There are true experts in their field. But even the greatest experts in the land can not predict the future. See Michael Fish and his predictions on hurricanes.
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    (Original post by ByEeek)
    That's not fair. There are true experts in their field. But even the greatest experts in the land can not predict the future. See Michael Fish and his predictions on hurricanes.
    As a weather fan the misinformation sorrounding that episode infuriates me.

    What the UK saw was a hurricane which become extra-tropical deliver hurricane force gusts but Fish was right to say it was not a hurricane and had not been since it was near the Azores. It had an a-symetrical cold core and was little more than a pumped up Autumn low which simply took a track further south than normal.
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    (Original post by Rakas21)
    What the UK saw was a hurricane which become extra-tropical deliver hurricane force gusts but Fish was right to say it was not a hurricane and had not been since it was near the Azores. It had an a-symetrical cold core and was little more than a pumped up Autumn low which simply took a track further south than normal.
    But he was clearly wrong in his prediction that there was nothing to worry about - especially to those who's lives were turned upside down. Like I said - no one can predict the future yet too many seem to swear they can.
 
 
 
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