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If Labour splits into two parties, will it never be elected again? Watch

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    (Original post by Grand High Witch)
    I think this will be the case. You would get the Blairites and those on the centre who do not want to vote Tory voting for the new party; however, you would get those on the left and those who vote Labour because their parents and grandparents did voting for Corbyn's original Labour Party. The vote would be pretty much split down the middle.
    I'll be voting for whichever half Jezza leads
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    (Original post by L i b)
    Let's not overstate the issue here. A small band of the party's extreme are running it, supported by all sorts of Trots and oddballs who now form part of the membership. The vast majority of Labour MPs are still mainstream and if they broke away would form a more cohesive, more Labour-like party.

    This is not the SDP. But even so, let's not forget how high the SDP/Liberal Alliance polled within a couple of percentage points of Labour in 1983. A new centrist party could do far better than that.
    Corbyn supporters are not Trots and oddballs, they are ordinary people supporting a rare MP with integrity. The PLP is more like the old SDP, who were really LIberals who wanted to try to win again. It would be good if we could go back to the old system of Tory (right) Liberal (centre) and Labour (left), to at least give voters a proper choice. Even better to have proportional representation, so everyone is represented, rather than one minority dominating everyone else as happens with first past the post.
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    I think if it split, Corbyns side could win, but unlikely at the next election. The PLP side would lose badly, as people who want Tories will just vote Tory. It would take another election for people to find this out though.
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    172 Labour MPs voted against Corbyn in the VONC. That's about 75% of the PLP

    My opinion is that Labour is made up of two strands in a way no other political party is and that it should split. For decades leaders have tried to reconcile the two parts but only Blair was successful and that was largely because of his ability to win so much support for the moderate wing among the wider public.

    A new SDP should be formed with moderate Labour MPs and the Lib Dems and it should be done well before the next election to win as much Parliamentary support as it can, invest in the Lib Dems before they make a comeback and entrench itself at the ballot box while Corbyn is still here.
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    (Original post by MagicNMedicine)
    In politics never believe this "will never be voted again" stuff.
    When were the liberal party last a thing and when were they last the main opposition?

    Your line of thinking also applies to people who think the labour party will never disappear or become a third party.
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    There is not going to be a PM with a beard, end of. It's in the psyche - you can't trust men with beards, they've got something to hide.

    Has there ever been a PM with a beard? Def not in the last 100 years.

    On a wider point, elections are all about the margins. Relatively small changes decide the government. A swing of a couple of percentage points can move an election from Lab to Con (as it did last year). A huge change, such as a main political party ideologically splitting in two would equate to an enormous swing to Con, unless taken up by some other party.

    Even in Labour seats with big majorities, real lefty ones like inner London or Liverpool, the Labour vote is going to be partly Trots and partly Champagne socialists and partly the more pragmatic centre left. Split the Labour party, and I see the Corbyn-party being utterly annihilated - they'd be lucky to be the size of UKIP. The Centrist Labour would lose a ton of seats, unless they could come together with the Lib Dems - in which case anything could happen.
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    (Original post by Platopus)
    I'll be voting for whichever half Jezza leads
    Half? Support won't come anywhere near half.

    It being one of two Parties doesn't count
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    (Original post by viffer)
    Half? Support won't come anywhere near half.

    It being one of two Parties doesn't count
    Apologies. I will support whichever faction Corbyn is leading.
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    My mum always said ' a party either labour/conservative usually holds office for about 10+ years, then they usually get replaced by the other party'

    examples 1979 - 1997 : Conservative 18 years
    1997 - 2010: Labour 13 years
    2010 - (hopefully 2020): Conservative*
    2020 - Labour ( I want the tories out!)*

    The conservatives won't be in power forever.*
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    (Original post by Graham 14)
    My mum always said ' a party either labour/conservative usually holds office for about 10+ years, then they usually get replaced by the other party'

    examples 1979 - 1997 : Conservative 18 years
    1997 - 2010: Labour 13 years
    2010 - (hopefully 2020): Conservative*
    2020 - Labour ( I want the tories out!)*

    The conservatives won't be in power forever.*
    This is true - after a while, what tends to happen is Conservative governments run out of ideas and Labour governments run out of money, and Liberal governments run out of goodwill. They then get replaced.

    This is predicated on an effective multi party system, tho.

    The current Labour party isn't an opposition or alternative government, it's just a bigger version of a militant student union. As it stands they'd be in for an absolute spanking at the polls with Corbyn in charge. The 1983 election wouldn't be a bad comparison - you've got a 10pt Tory lead on opinion polls, plus the shy Tory factor - I reckon that's a 90 seat margin if Theresa May called an election early.However - that's with a unified Labour party under Corbyn.Split the party, and I don't see Corbyn Labour winning more than half a dozen seats nationally. Blairite Labour maybe 20 or so. If they join with the Liberals, it could be more than 200.

    The left-wing nightmare scenario would be an independent Scotland, and two Labour parties distinct from the Liberals. That would almost certainly deliver Conservative government for the foreseeable future.
    Corbyn's mob know this - they just don't care. For them, fighting for the ideological basis of the party is far more important than ever being in government and actually effecting policy.
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    As an indicator - the ICM poll today gives the Tories a 16 point lead over Corbyn. There are some poll/swing comparators which show that as a 108 seat victory at a General Election (without any shy Tories).

    This is what Corbyn is going to deliver you - a guaranteed massive Conservative majority that could do anything it wanted to.
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    (Original post by Trinculo)
    This is true - after a while, what tends to happen is Conservative governments run out of ideas and Labour governments run out of money, and Liberal governments run out of goodwill. They then get replaced.

    This is predicated on an effective multi party system, tho.

    The current Labour party isn't an opposition or alternative government, it's just a bigger version of a militant student union. As it stands they'd be in for an absolute spanking at the polls with Corbyn in charge. The 1979 election wouldn't be a bad comparison - you've got a 10pt Tory lead on opinion polls, plus the shy Tory factor - I reckon that's a 60 seat margin if Theresa May called an election early.However - that's with a unified Labour party under Corbyn.Split the party, and I don't see Corbyn Labour winning more than half a dozen seats nationally. Blairite Labour maybe 20 or so. If they join with the Liberals, it could be more than 200.

    The left-wing nightmare scenario would be an independent Scotland, and two Labour parties distinct from the Liberals. That would almost certainly deliver Conservative government for the foreseeable future.
    Corbyn's mob know this - they just don't care. For them, fighting for the ideological basis of the party is far more important than ever being in government and actually effecting policy.
    Corbyn's leadership has been the best opposition to the tories in years, he actually opposes the tories, ed miliband barely opposed them at all, he agreed with everything they said, we do not need a centrist/new labour style labour party, it lost the party 5 millions votes from 1997 to 2010, lost scotland and lost two elections

    Jeremy's got a lot of work to do, to win 2020, not least with the unhelpful actions of certain mps, but he is their best bet of winning 2020 *
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    (Original post by Graham 14)
    My mum always said ' a party either labour/conservative usually holds office for about 10+ years, then they usually get replaced by the other party'

    examples 1979 - 1997 : Conservative 18 years
    1997 - 2010: Labour 13 years
    2010 - (hopefully 2020): Conservative*
    2020 - Labour ( I want the tories out!)*

    The conservatives won't be in power forever.*
    The problem Labour have here is that they are at a fairly low base with their collapse in Scotland and their only viable path to power in 2020 is to pray for a deep recession and coalition in hoc to nationalists.

    Given that Labour require 99 seats simply to achieve a majority of 1 (the 3rd largest seat swing since ww2), it's very likely with the fixed terms act that the Tories will be in power until at least 2025.

    (Original post by Trinculo)
    As an indicator - the ICM poll today gives the Tories a 16 point lead over Corbyn. There are some poll/swing comparators which show that as a 108 seat victory at a General Election (without any shy Tories).

    This is what Corbyn is going to deliver you - a guaranteed massive Conservative majority that could do anything it wanted to.
    That's just the majority, if Labour really did get 170 seats then they'd need more than 160 to achieve a majority of 1 which would all but guarantee the Tories power until 2030 if not 2035.
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    (Original post by Graham 14)
    Corbyn's leadership has been the best opposition to the tories in years, he actually opposes the tories, ed miliband barely opposed them at all, he agreed with everything they said, we do not need a centrist/new labour style labour party, it lost the party 5 millions votes from 1997 to 2010, lost scotland and lost two elections

    Jeremy's got a lot of work to do, to win 2020, not least with the unhelpful actions of certain mps, but he is their best bet of winning 2020 *
    The reason Corbyn has had more effect than Miliband is because the Tory majority is 12, the coalition majority was around 80.

    But let me ask you this as a leftie. Is Corbyn opposing the Tories for 4 years worth giving the party you oppose a majority of 100 for the following 5 years (more or less giving May free reign). .
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    (Original post by Graham 14)
    Corbyn's leadership has been the best opposition to the tories in years, he actually opposes the tories, ed miliband barely opposed them at all, he agreed with everything they said, we do not need a centrist/new labour style labour party, it lost the party 5 millions votes from 1997 to 2010, lost scotland and lost two elections

    Jeremy's got a lot of work to do, to win 2020, not least with the unhelpful actions of certain mps, but he is their best bet of winning 2020 *
    This is exactly how Corbyn and his gang think - that ideological rather than political opposition is the best way forward.

    But the idea that they will win anything is just not supported by any evidence historical or contemporary.

    Look how similar the situation now is to to 1983. Replace Michael Foot with Jeremy Corbyn and Mrs Thatch with Theresa May. The Labour Party stood on a hard left manifesto of nationalizing industries, super taxes on the wealthy and getting rid of nukes. Foot was a scruffy Trot facing against the erudite Thatcher.The result - absolute carnage for Labour, with the Tories on a three-digit majority.No matter how much you might like a hard left manifesto, there are many, many more people in Britain who don't want one. Look at the polls today. Corbyn is taking the Labour party further away from the Tories electorally. He's gone from 6-8pts behind to 10 to now 16 behind. In approval ratings, he's more than 40% behind Theresa May in things like Leadership ratings. In the over 65s demographic, Corbyn is 70% behind Theresa May for preference as PM. That's an unheard-of statistic. He's impossibly, record-breakingly bad, and he's about to win a landslide victory as leader of his own party - which tells you all you need to know about the absolute armageddon Labour is in.
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    (Original post by Rakas21)
    The reason Corbyn has had more effect than Miliband is because the Tory majority is 12, the coalition majority was around 80.

    But let me ask you this as a leftie. Is Corbyn opposing the Tories for 4 years worth giving the party you oppose a majority of 100 for the following 5 years (more or less giving May free reign). .
    An opposition is meant oppose and hold the government to account, which jeremy is doing, the next election is in 2020, and we need oppose and also put forward policies what a labour government would do. As I set before, labour were more than happy before corbyn to agree with the government's austerity programme, they didn't put forward an alternative. corbyn is putting forward a programme of anti-austerity, investment in public services, abolition of tuition fees. Please don't say being in opposition is useless, for goodness sake ukip managed to make cameron have a referendum. Oppositions can have a powerful presence, jeremy does want to win and form a government.

    you don't know what will happen in 2020, nobody does, never assume anything, we just had a brexit vote, anything is possible.

    please don't demean and say we are a party of protest, we are people who want change. Should labour just go back to agreeing with the tories and lose another election? i certainly don't want that.

    2020 will be a challenge, but anything is possible. Just look at how corbyn won the leadership election last year, nobody predicted or expected that. *
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    (Original post by Graham 14)
    please don't demean and say we are a party of protest, we are people who want change. Should labour just go back to agreeing with the tories and lose another election? i certainly don't want that.

    2020 will be a challenge, but anything is possible. Just look at how corbyn won the leadership election last year, nobody predicted or expected that. *
    This is what you don't get. Labour lost the election for being too far to the left already. You probably hate the idea of this, and can't reconcile it, but Cameron and Cameron/Clegg took a lot of the centre ground from New Labour. To win the last election, you needed David Milliband and a more centre-ground manifesto, Instead, Labour went to the left and lost (and also got beaten out of Scotland).

    The reaction to that was not to move back to the centre and make Dan Jarvis leader - but to lurch wildly to the left and immerse yourselves in 1970s and 80s Marxist-Leninist propaganda and unrestricted Class War.The 2015 election has already told you what the winning and losing conditions were, and for some reason Labour has embarked upon a strategy of turning defeat into catastrophe.

    What you should have learned from the 2015 election and 2016 referendum, is that opinion polls understate the Tory/Leave vote. If you look at the current polling, there is no way to turn a 16 point defecit into a Labour government. It's just not going to happen. 1983 should have taught you that, but you're doing it all over again.
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    (Original post by Trinculo)
    This is exactly how Corbyn and his gang think - that ideological rather than political opposition is the best way forward.

    But the idea that they will win anything is just not supported by any evidence historical or contemporary.

    Look how similar the situation now is to to 1983. Replace Michael Foot with Jeremy Corbyn and Mrs Thatch with Theresa May. The Labour Party stood on a hard left manifesto of nationalizing industries, super taxes on the wealthy and getting rid of nukes. Foot was a scruffy Trot facing against the erudite Thatcher.The result - absolute carnage for Labour, with the Tories on a three-digit majority.No matter how much you might like a hard left manifesto, there are many, many more people in Britain who don't want one. Look at the polls today. Corbyn is taking the Labour party further away from the Tories electorally. He's gone from 6-8pts behind to 10 to now 16 behind. In approval ratings, he's more than 40% behind Theresa May in things like Leadership ratings. In the over 65s demographic, Corbyn is 70% behind Theresa May for preference as PM. That's an unheard-of statistic. He's impossibly, record-breakingly bad, and he's about to win a landslide victory as leader of his own party - which tells you all you need to know about the absolute armageddon Labour is in.
    We don't live in 1983 anymore, times have changed, let me just say have labour won 2010 and 2015 being new labour, no, the position we are currently in, is no fault of corbyn, it was the outrageous coup that was planned for months, to pretend the coup would have no impact on polls, is ridiculous, i'm not denying the challenge we face, but corbyn certainly is electable, won 4 by elections, increased our share at local elections, 63% remain vote, he's doing well.

    I'm 20 year old student, and a left wing socialist who wants change, i'm proud of that. I'm sick of austerity, homelessness, inequality, cuts, privatisation, what's wrong with true labour, that's what brought the NHS, the welfare system, council houses, in regards to ideological purity, for goodness sake, labour couldn't win with a tory lite/new labour agenda in 2010 and 2015. Do you really think going back to that will win? why does labour have to become tory to win elections, there's no point in labour, if we are tories.

    labour should have a set of policies and then convince the electorate to vote for the policies. if being left wing was so unelectable, how did the snp win scotland and how did jeremy win the leadership election.
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    (Original post by Trinculo)
    This is what you don't get. Labour lost the election for being too far to the left already. You probably hate the idea of this, and can't reconcile it, but Cameron and Cameron/Clegg took a lot of the centre ground from New Labour. To win the last election, you needed David Milliband and a more centre-ground manifesto, Instead, Labour went to the left and lost (and also got beaten out of Scotland).

    The reaction to that was not to move back to the centre and make Dan Jarvis leader - but to lurch wildly to the left and immerse yourselves in 1970s and 80s Marxist-Leninist propaganda and unrestricted Class War.The 2015 election has already told you what the winning and losing conditions were, and for some reason Labour has embarked upon a strategy of turning defeat into catastrophe.

    What you should have learned from the 2015 election and 2016 referendum, is that opinion polls understate the Tory/Leave vote. If you look at the current polling, there is no way to turn a 16 point defecit into a Labour government. It's just not going to happen. 1983 should have taught you that, but you're doing it all over again.
    the leave vote was a protest against the establishment, against the cuts, against austerity, the people voted for corbyn, people are fed up of the establishment, do you think getting rid of corbyn and putting in an establishment candidate will win over the public, i don't think so.

    Let me ask you what is stance, do you support austerity, privatisation of the state, widespread inequality, housing crisis, because you don't seem to be talking about the important issues. **
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    (Original post by Graham 14)
    We don't live in 1983 anymore, times have changed, let me just say have labour won 2010 and 2015 being new labour, no, the position we are currently in, is no fault of corbyn, it was the outrageous coup that was planned for months, to pretend the coup would have no impact on polls, is ridiculous, i'm not denying the challenge we face, but corbyn certainly is electable, won 4 by elections, increased our share at local elections, 63% remain vote, he's doing well.

    I'm 20 year old student, and a left wing socialist who wants change, i'm proud of that. I'm sick of austerity, homelessness, inequality, cuts, privatisation, what's wrong with true labour, that's what brought the NHS, the welfare system, council houses, in regards to ideological purity, for goodness sake, labour couldn't win with a tory lite/new labour agenda in 2010 and 2015. Do you really think going back to that will win? why does labour have to become tory to win elections, there's no point in labour, if we are tories.

    labour should have a set of policies and then convince the electorate to vote for the policies. if being left wing was so unelectable, how did the snp win scotland and how did jeremy win the leadership election.
    *
    Again, you're looking at this from the point of view that you are inalienably "right" and that no point of view other than yours holds moral or political force. Unfortunately for you, the British electorate does not share your philosophy. You are not going to persuade millions of people to vote for the far left. It's just not going to happen. People might not be happy with successive Tory governments - but they are "satisfied" - and that's enough. They do know that they would be unhappy with a left-wing government, though.

    The other problems are primarily your leader - he's unelectable. He doesn't look like a leader, and has displayed no traits of competence. In the days post-Brexit when the government lost its PM, Corbyn is scrambling around trying to rally troops round the old red banner.Secondly, the SNP aren't really a Marxist left-wing party. They're closer to what the BNP is - a nationalist party with some socialist ideas. They've capitalized on the nationalist fervour and taken all of Labour's Scottish votes.Sure, you don't have to become the Tories - but how can you expect to win an election with policies that only appeal to a tiny minority? You have to move to the centre.
 
 
 
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