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    (Original post by 999tigger)
    we will still have been in recession, even if there is data lag.
    Pray tell when we started having more than 4 quarters in a year? Even if we switch from 2 quarters to 6 months it isn't possible because we won't be in recession until the 6th month has ended which, guess what, is next year.

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    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    Pray tell when we started having more than 4 quarters in a year? Even if we switch from 2 quarters to 6 months it isn't possible because we won't be in recession until the 6th month has ended which, guess what, is next year.

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    No.

    The recessionary period includes the first 2 declining quarters. Indeed a recession might only last those 2 declining quarters, but it's still called a recession.

    So, if Q3 & Q4 in 2016 are found to be declining the recession will have started in Q3.

    Eg 1956 had a 2 quarter recession

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/r...y-compare.html

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List...United_Kingdom

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    (Original post by 999tigger)
    You dont know because you dont have sufficient data.
    I was unaware brexit had predicted anything other than some stuff abut trade deals?

    The predictions make more sense over 1-10 years.
    Not really. The world is *never* as black and white as it is often portrayed, especially by sides with as much vested interest as Brexit and Bremain had.
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    We can add to the comparisons further. as well as France and Austria flat lining we get the EZ as a whole at 0.3% along with the US (who had Q1 revised down to 0.2%) with Italy expected to only have 0.1% growth, remaining at pre Euro levels, and Germany, the powerhouse of the EZ, expected to only be 0.3-0.4%

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    I'm not sure what all this scramble for evidence to show "Brexit hasn't caused a recession" is supposed to prove.

    If we go in to recession in the coming quarters, we all know they will say "well everyone knew Brexit would cause a recession in the short term, its still worth it in the long run"
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    (Original post by MagicNMedicine)
    I'm not sure what all this scramble for evidence to show "Brexit hasn't caused a recession" is supposed to prove.

    If we go in to recession in the coming quarters, we all know they will say "well everyone knew Brexit would cause a recession in the short term, its still worth it in the long run"
    I think it's more to do with the pre-exit scramble to lay blame and potentially even avoid exit (i.e. Owen Smith wants a second referendum after the negotiations).

    Since May has given Fox the go ahead to go for trade more or less immediately i'm quite optimistic that it will be better in the long run. There was always a danger we might be a bit unsure and hesitant or protectionist.
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    ...and wages have fallen by 11%

    What on earth is the point of growing our economy if the public don't actually see the benefits and in fact end up poorer?
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    (Original post by Bornblue)
    ...and wages have fallen by 11%

    What on earth is the point of growing our economy if the public don't actually see the benefits and in fact end up poorer?
    That's a real terms fall and primarily in the 08-13 period (they've been rising since).
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    (Original post by Bornblue)
    ...and wages have fallen by 11%

    What on earth is the point of growing our economy if the public don't actually see the benefits and in fact end up poorer?
    Care to point out what the **** reliable source has show a 9th being cut of wages in Q2 when there is no evidence of an end to the trend of real terms growth, let alone such a severe contraction?

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    (Original post by Rakas21)
    That's a real terms fall and primarily in the 08-13 period (they've been rising since).
    But still well below pre-recession levels.
    Our wage growth is less than the vast majority of other European countries.

    The point is, what's the point in our economy growing if ordinary people don't actually feel the benefits?
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    Project fear wasn't limited to the leave campaign. George Osborne scare-mongered throughout the remain campaign.
 
 
 
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