Hey there! Sign in to join this conversationNew here? Join for free
x Turn on thread page Beta

Britain entering a recession? watch

Announcements
    Offline

    16
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by Fullofsurprises)
    x
    It's odd. You seem quite intelligent.

    However, you only seem intelligent about 50% of the debate (i.e. The side that supports your argument...)


    For example, I didn't see you make a thread last week about the fact that the IMF published growth figures that said that the UK will still have higher growth than France, Germany & Italy for at least the next few years. The best out the wealthy European countries! Combined with better than expected growth in the run upto Brexit.

    There's always good and bad economic data. Brexiteers are taking the great data and using that as proof everything is rosy. People like yourself are taking the negative data and forecasting the apocalypse.

    You come off as someone who is more interested in pushing an agenda rather than providing actual insight.

    The situation is rather more nuanced that either of these positions. We will have to wait and see.


    SS
    Offline

    3
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by Fullofsurprises)
    They are a favourite tool of fascist and reactionary governments everywhere.
    :rolleyes:
    • Thread Starter
    Offline

    20
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by Supersaps)
    It's odd. You seem quite intelligent.

    However, you only seem intelligent about 50% of the debate (i.e. The side that supports your argument...)


    For example, I didn't see you make a thread last week about the fact that the IMF published growth figures that said that the UK will still have higher growth than France, Germany & Italy for at least the next few years. The best out the wealthy European countries! Combined with better than expected growth in the run upto Brexit.

    There's always good and bad economic data. Brexiteers are taking the great data and using that as proof everything is rosy. People like yourself are taking the negative data and forecasting the apocalypse.

    You come off as someone who is more interested in pushing an agenda rather than providing actual insight.

    The situation is rather more nuanced that either of these positions. We will have to wait and see.


    SS
    There's nothing in the rules of TSR that says you have to make balanced threads. I say what I believe, which may or may not come off as bias to others.

    Of course the Eurozone has troubles, we all know that. The UK was already detached from those as we are not in the Euro. On some levels, the Brexit vote does not change that. However, what it clearly has changed is business sentiment - the PMI and other key indicators measure that - which has slumped. This may be a complex issue, but the outcome has been simple - the Brexit vote means a drop in the UK economy purely because of confidence, which was predictable and predicted.

    I wish we could eat and spend UKIP lies, because we'd all be rich.
    Offline

    16
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by Fullofsurprises)
    There's nothing in the rules of TSR that says you have to make balanced threads. I say what I believe, which may or may not come off as bias to others.
    No, there's no rules against it. However, it does make you seem less than genuine.

    SS
    • Community Assistant
    Offline

    21
    ReputationRep:
    Community Assistant
    (Original post by ABadManTing)
    There is a world wide crisis coming, and still people so dense as to be fighting each other than who really did this to them AGAIN (The Banks & Government)

    Also I don't think a Third World War can be stopped now, its just a matter of when and not if now.
    Isn't that a rather lazy opinion, given that such a statement requires absolutely no supporting evidence and its only mitigating factor is time...
    Offline

    15
    ReputationRep:
    Judging by the comments from Bremainers on the Guardian site over the last few weeks I honestly don't think I'm being overly cynical in saying that I suspect many Bremainers will be seeing this as good news.
    Offline

    9
    ReputationRep:
    I think it's about time I joined my relatives in Germany before it's too late
    Offline

    19
    ReputationRep:
    SNP First Minister was right, scaring the public will backward, blame this recession on Conservatives with lie, NOT labour.
    Offline

    0
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by Fullofsurprises)
    Lots of warnings coming through now about the economy. The Bank of England is widely forecast to be cutting rates shortly, from the already-low 0.5% (once they've done this cut, that method of stimulating the economy will be fully exhausted) - the all-important Service PMI (which predicts what services are going to buy) is sharply down and many economists are predicting a recession.
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/...-faces-higher/

    So much for all the lies from the Brexiteers about everything looking much better than Remainers said it would. In fact, if anything, it's looking worse.
    - FTSE 100 higher than pre brexit vote.
    - FTSE 250 around level with pre brexit vote.
    - Global economy is stuttering at the moment even before the brexit vote.

    " GDP rose by 0.3% between April and June, in line with expectations but below 0.6% growth in the first quarter.
    France, the eurozone's second-largest economy, saw no growth after expanding by 0.7% in the first quarter." - BBC NEWS

    Signs that growth is slowing not because of brexit vote but because it is time for a recession. ( It's been 7 years since last recession... recessions are estimated roughly every 7 years.)

    - Scottish appetite for leaving uk and joining EU is declining (UK is not going to break up)
    - Rates were expected to be cut last time by BOE but weren't. Shows UK economy stronger than originally predicted.
    - We are still in the short run since we haven't even triggered article 50. I would class the medium term just before the end of the 2 years and long term when the new trade deals are in place.
    - Not a single MNC company which had threatned to leave to UK before Brexit has done so. To the contrary, most have committed to staying.

    I'm not saying that there is not a possibility of us receiving some negative growth in the next quarter but it's time to stop the scare mongering and reporting the whole story rather than just the negatives.
    Offline

    0
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by Supersaps)
    No, there's no rules against it. However, it does make you seem less than genuine.

    SS
    Lmfao when i saw this person's reply to you're perfectly reasonable comment i just started laughing. This person claims to have gone to Oxford to study PPE and is a researcher yet fails to evaluate both sides of an argument to come to a conclusion. I think we are wasting our time with this utter moron.
    • Section Leader
    Offline

    21
    ReputationRep:
    Section Leader
    (Original post by Codetto)
    Signs that growth is slowing not because of brexit vote but because it is time for a recession. ( It's been 7 years since last recession... recessions are estimated roughly every 7 years.)
    Nope: 1990/91 recession to 2008/9 recession was a 17 year gap.

    Offline

    16
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by Codetto)
    Lmfao when i saw this person's reply to you're perfectly reasonable comment i just started laughing. This person claims to have gone to Oxford to study PPE and is a researcher yet fails to evaluate both sides of an argument to come to a conclusion. I think we are wasting our time with this utter moron.
    In my experience, Oxford is a massive left-wing bubble that just needs to be popped...
    • Thread Starter
    Offline

    20
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by Supersaps)
    In my experience, Oxford is a massive left-wing bubble that just needs to be popped...
    That's just not the case - if anything, the reverse is true.

    Going back to my OP, I don't need to address all possible arguments when I am referencing a new set of developments. However, the main argument you made, that the FTSE indices are rising, is a pretty thin one, as equities can rise in recessions and fall in growth periods. The PMI is an indicator of what's happening in the real economy.
    • Thread Starter
    Offline

    20
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by jneill)
    Nope: 1990/91 recession to 2008/9 recession was a 17 year gap.

    If anything, it was following broadly a 10-yr cycle until the financial crash of 2008 - therefore we had 1983, 1992/3, 2001/2, etc. It seems that since the crash we've effectively entered a long period of stagnation globally, although there are now signs that the world economy may be breaking out of the ice box.

    If, as suspected, the UK now enters recession, it will be very much against the global trend for 'independent powers' - one would if anything expect a Brexited Britain to be more attuned to, say, the US economy going forwards than to the Eurozone. Unfortunately, the truth is that despite preparing to Leave, our economic destiny remains in Europe, apart from the fact that we are damaging that by all the signals over leaving the Single Market now coming out.
    Offline

    20
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by Fullofsurprises)
    They are a favourite tool of fascist and reactionary governments everywhere.
    What about communists?
    Offline

    0
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by Fullofsurprises)
    That's just not the case - if anything, the reverse is true.

    Going back to my OP, I don't need to address all possible arguments when I am referencing a new set of developments. However, the main argument you made, that the FTSE indices are rising, is a pretty thin one, as equities can rise in recessions and fall in growth periods. The PMI is an indicator of what's happening in the real economy.
    Individual equities can rise and fall but the general trend for FTSE indices is to fall in recessions. In addition, my main argument isn't about FTSE indicies, rather, 1. A global theme that global growth is falling and there what we are seeing isn't just as a result of brexit. 2. Many of claims of britian fracturing and companies leaving haven't come to fruition.
    • Thread Starter
    Offline

    20
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by ChaoticButterfly)
    What about communists?
    Only if they know they will get a 99.2% yes vote on a 99.% turnout. :teehee:
    Offline

    20
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by Fullofsurprises)
    Only if they know they will get a 99.2% yes vote on a 99.% turnout. :teehee:
    Exactly. A dictatorship will use a referendum only if it thinks it will go the way it wants and then use to to go on a big crackdown.

    The way the UK uses referendums is not like that of a dictatorship. If we were a dictatorship we would not be leaving the EU since the referendum did not go the way most of the ruling class want. Funny how the so called progressives who do not want to leave are the ones behaving like little dictators...
    • Thread Starter
    Offline

    20
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by ChaoticButterfly)
    Exactly. A dictatorship will use a referendum only if it thinks it will go the way it wants and then use to to go on a big crackdown.

    The way the UK uses referendums is not like that of a dictatorship. If we were a dictatorship we would not be leaving the EU since the referendum did not go the way most of the ruling class want. Funny how the so called progressives who do not want to leave are the ones behaving like little dictators...
    It isn't clear what happens in a case where the ruling class is divided, as it was in this instance. Effectively, the Cameron case was to use a referendum as a tool to settle a dispute within the ruling elements of the Right. That was seized on by part of the Right to run neo-fascist themes like extreme racism as a reactionary toolkit. I do see that it's different to the straight "approve the whims of the Dear Leader" type of referendum, but it still operated within a context of wholesale misleading of the working class and distortion of major issues.
    Offline

    20
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by Fullofsurprises)
    but it still operated within a context of wholesale misleading of the working class and distortion of major issues.
    But you could say that about our entire parliamentary democracy.

    The solution isn't just to do away with democracy completely and give all power to the arguing plutocrats.

    The working class should get off their backside and make the arguing ruling class regret the day they caved to the demands of universal suffererage.
 
 
 
Poll
Do you agree with the proposed ban on plastic straws and cotton buds?
Useful resources

The Student Room, Get Revising and Marked by Teachers are trading names of The Student Room Group Ltd.

Register Number: 04666380 (England and Wales), VAT No. 806 8067 22 Registered Office: International House, Queens Road, Brighton, BN1 3XE

Write a reply...
Reply
Hide
Reputation gems: You get these gems as you gain rep from other members for making good contributions and giving helpful advice.