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    (Original post by momoneyme89)
    Recession? What Recession? We aren't Italy? And we certainly aren't the Italian Banks! The UK economy is remarkable strong.

    The P/E ratio on the FTSE 100 is reasonable, we are NOWHERE near 1999 levels, where the FTSE 100 was massively overvalued relative to earnings.

    If the FTSE 100 was at 9000 right now, I would be worried. But I can easily see the FTSE 100 run to 7900/8000 without any resistance.
    I didn't say it wouldn't. Since when does the day to day value of the FTSE (any index) accurately reflect the underlying health of the economy in the last 20 years?

    Has it occurred to you that with all other forms of savings at zero percent interest, millions of people who probably shouldn't be entering equities are pumping up their stocks and shares ISAs desperate to try to make an income from money?
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    Btw I have £23,000 in the financial markets right now.

    £13,000 domestic and £8,000 international (ish) equities, with a bit of fixed income as well (£2000)
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    (Original post by Fullofsurprises)
    I didn't say it wouldn't. Since when does the day to day value of the FTSE (any index) accurately reflect the underlying health of the economy in the last 20 years?

    Has it occurred to you that with all other forms of savings at zero percent interest, millions of people who probably shouldn't be entering equities are pumping up their stocks and shares ISAs desperate to try to make an income from money?
    That's why we look at P/E ratios. The price of the index, compared to the earnings of the index.

    Yes I agree, people who don't understand finance, shouldn't be putting money in stocks. Or if they really want to , they should stick to pure blue chips/ funds.

    I mean there are a lot of bargains right now in the market, if you have the risk appetite for it. Most of the housebuilders got hit pretty bad, same with a lot of insurance.

    I would suggest buying housebuilders and insurance right now, if you like the risk. I personally think we are fine, like I said we are not Italy. We won't have banks to bail out.

    My top picks...

    1) Berkeley Group Holdings (FTSE 100)
    2) Legal and General (FTSE 100)
    3) Galliford Try (FTSE 250)
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    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    And let's not forget the 1.4% month on month increase in retail sales last month, which is only the thing that makes up 70% of the economy, I mean, it's not like that's 1% of GDP or anything, which means there needs to be more than a 3% contraction in the other 30% to be getting this economic contraction we've been told so much about.
    Pantheon Macroeconomics' Samuel Tombs,
    "Retail spending equates to about 20% of GDP, but since the vast bulk of goods are imported, surging high street spending does little to boost GDP growth."

    Joe Grice, chief economic adviser at ONS said on the figures,
    "These are strong numbers showing a pronounced increase in sales compared with last July. Better weather this year could be a major factor with sales of clothing and footwear doing particularly well. There is also anecdotal evidence from respondents suggesting the weaker pound has encouraged overseas visitors to spend. Department stores and specialist retailers like jewellers are among those reporting a good month."

    The fundamentals for consumers will soften over the coming months as inflation rises, the impact of lowering savings rate catches up with consumers, unemployment rises, growth in earnings is halted and the cost of a devalued pound is passed onto consumers. Don't expect consumption miracles in the next year and don't read too much into one months retail figures, which has always been a volatile measure.
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    (Original post by Fullofsurprises)
    I thought that Moodys thing was horse dung frankly - clearly the authors weren't looking at any actual underlying indicators such as PMI, factory gate prices, business confidence, etc. I think someone over there likes Theresa May a little too much. :rolleyes:
    Fed up of expert on the remain side now? 😉


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    (Original post by paul514)
    Fed up of expert on the remain side now? 😉


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    All expertise is clearly invalid, which is why 'never listens to experts' Michael Gove has done so well. :lol:

    Anyway, I thought nobody gave a fig generally what the ratings agencies say these days.
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    (Original post by Fullofsurprises)
    All expertise is clearly invalid, which is why 'never listens to experts' Michael Gove has done so well. :lol:

    Anyway, I thought nobody gave a fig generally what the ratings agencies say these days.
    Perhaps not or perhaps you only give credence to experts who in some way support your existing argument.

    Either way the sky hasn't been falling and neither will it


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    (Original post by paul514)
    Fed up of expert on the remain side now? 😉


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    Paul can you get that article about Moody's report. I've been on a all month binge. All I know is Beer + Hang over at the moment.
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    (Original post by illegaltobepoor)
    Paul can you get that article about Moody's report. I've been on a all month binge. All I know is Beer + Hang over at the moment.
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/...e-as-brexit-s/


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    Moody's seems to be singing to the tune of ......................... what I've said over the last 2 years.

    1. US doing stupid amounts of QE @ low interest rates which will cause a risk of hyper inflation if the QE bubble collapses and interest rates go though the roof followed by all those useless dollars coming to back to US shores.

    2. Brexit won't send the UK economy into a full melt down.

    3. The 4 horsemen currencies need to have their central banks on low interest rates else its incoming recession/depression. However the depression will come eventually because the damage of low rates has already been done though QE of Japan, USA, Europe and now UK.

    To be honest .... I just follow the right analysts who put their money where their mouth is like Peter Schiff and Mike Maloney. That is the difference. People need to realise Keynesian-ism is kicking the can down the road until that can becomes a huge snowball and then later becomes a avalanche.

    Its unbelievable the amount of excuses people have put on this thread. Just whine to be honest. No substance. Your link to that article is the only credible thing I've seen.
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    (Original post by Fullofsurprises)
    I thought that Moodys thing was horse dung frankly - clearly the authors weren't looking at any actual underlying indicators such as PMI, factory gate prices, business confidence, etc. I think someone over there likes Theresa May a little too much. :rolleyes:
    You mean people should look at the subjective measures rather than the objective ones because people still crying about losing means the subjective measures are so out of synch with reality they show the world ending?

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    (Original post by illegaltobepoor)
    Moody's seems to be singing to the tune of ......................... what I've said over the last 2 years.

    1. US doing stupid amounts of QE @ low interest rates which will cause a risk of hyper inflation if the QE bubble collapses and interest rates go though the roof followed by all those useless dollars coming to back to US shores.

    2. Brexit won't send the UK economy into a full melt down.

    3. The 4 horsemen currencies need to have their central banks on low interest rates else its incoming recession/depression. However the depression will come eventually because the damage of low rates has already been done though QE of Japan, USA, Europe and now UK.

    To be honest .... I just follow the right analysts who put their money where their mouth is like Peter Schiff and Mike Maloney. That is the difference. People need to realise Keynesian-ism is kicking the can down the road until that can becomes a huge snowball and then later becomes a avalanche.

    Its unbelievable the amount of excuses people have put on this thread. Just whine to be honest. No substance. Your link to that article is the only credible thing I've seen.
    Keynesian economics is only bad if you don't spend your way out of a recession on worthwhile things.

    I.e stuff that has a return on investment by way of savings or increased income.

    Obviously we haven't done that


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    (Original post by illegaltobepoor)
    Moody's seems to be singing to the tune of ......................... what I've said over the last 2 years.

    1. US doing stupid amounts of QE @ low interest rates which will cause a risk of hyper inflation if the QE bubble collapses and interest rates go though the roof followed by all those useless dollars coming to back to US shores.

    2. Brexit won't send the UK economy into a full melt down.

    3. The 4 horsemen currencies need to have their central banks on low interest rates else its incoming recession/depression. However the depression will come eventually because the damage of low rates has already been done though QE of Japan, USA, Europe and now UK.

    To be honest .... I just follow the right analysts who put their money where their mouth is like Peter Schiff and Mike Maloney. That is the difference. People need to realise Keynesian-ism is kicking the can down the road until that can becomes a huge snowball and then later becomes a avalanche.

    Its unbelievable the amount of excuses people have put on this thread. Just whine to be honest. No substance. Your link to that article is the only credible thing I've seen.
    The problem with Keynesian economics is it isn't done anywhere near properly. When Blair should have been running modest surpluses or at least only a small deficit he went back to standard British economic ways.

    Then when people get spooked at the possibilityof a recession and go on to cause said recession the Keynesian spending isn't done on the right things, it's done on the sexy things; you get that age old adage "roads just aren't sexy."

    As a coupleof asides, first generally, second to the remoaners: preferably people would be more ecomically literate and spend their way into recession risks rather than have to borrow their way out of the recession, economic downturns would go much better with fewer job losses, and either no recession or a shallower one; the second aside is that currently there are no indications of a need to turn to Keynes (or anyone else) for a recession, but now is still the ideal time to do it anyway.

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    The FTSE is higher because the Pound is lower against the Dollar. It means that many foreign investors have bought a lot of British shares at a cheaper price.
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    (Original post by Josb)
    The FTSE is higher because the Pound is lower against the Dollar. It means that many foreign investors have bought a lot of British shares at a cheaper price.
    They would only do so in that circumstance if they saw value in it....

    I.e when they sell and transfer their pounds to their domestic currency the rates are higher.




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    I really think that a lot of Quiters are counting their chickens before they've hatched. And we are seeing it in this thread.

    Ok, so the sky hasn't fallen in on us. But the picture isn't 100% positive - and a lot of Quiters seem to forget that we haven't actually left the EU yet. We haven't even started the 2 year process of doing so.

    It seems totally absurd to celebrate anything. No one knows what the UK will look like in years to come. We could, and I think this is most likely, end up with a Norway type deal - and I'd imagine that this would be totally unacceptable for most Quiters. We could truly go it alone and leave the single market - and I think this would be disastrous for the UK.

    It's akin to jumping out of a plane wearing a dodgy parachute which may or may not work. The Quiters, realising that they're still alive seconds after exiting the plane are calling it a job well done. But what they ought to be thinking about is what'll happen when they pull the cord... and what will the landing be like?
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    (Original post by InnerTemple)
    I really think that a lot of Quiters are counting their chickens before they've hatched. And we are seeing it in this thread.

    Ok, so the sky hasn't fallen in on us. But the picture isn't 100% positive - and a lot of Quiters seem to forget that we haven't actually left the EU yet. We haven't even started the 2 year process of doing so.

    It seems totally absurd to celebrate anything. No one knows what the UK will look like in years to come. We could, and I think this is most likely, end up with a Norway type deal - and I'd imagine that this would be totally unacceptable for most Quiters. We could truly go it alone and leave the single market - and I think this would be disastrous for the UK.

    It's akin to jumping out of a plane wearing a dodgy parachute which may or may not work. The Quiters, realising that they're still alive seconds after exiting the plane are calling it a job well done. But what they ought to be thinking about is what'll happen when they pull the cord... and what will the landing be like?
    Actually it's the opposite we are revelling at laughing at remain supporters who were going ape in the weeks after the vote and all the predictions in the campaign.

    Brexit won't be able to be truly judged for decades


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    (Original post by InnerTemple)
    I really think that a lot of Quiters are counting their chickens before they've hatched. And we are seeing it in this thread.

    Ok, so the sky hasn't fallen in on us. But the picture isn't 100% positive - and a lot of Quiters seem to forget that we haven't actually left the EU yet. We haven't even started the 2 year process of doing so.

    It seems totally absurd to celebrate anything. No one knows what the UK will look like in years to come. We could, and I think this is most likely, end up with a Norway type deal - and I'd imagine that this would be totally unacceptable for most Quiters. We could truly go it alone and leave the single market - and I think this would be disastrous for the UK.

    It's akin to jumping out of a plane wearing a dodgy parachute which may or may not work. The Quiters, realising that they're still alive seconds after exiting the plane are calling it a job well done. But what they ought to be thinking about is what'll happen when they pull the cord... and what will the landing be like?
    im just a old racist leave voter sticking it to the younger generation.
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    (Original post by illegaltobepoor)
    im just a old racist leave voter sticking it to the younger generation.

    If that's something you want to admit, then fine... I guess? But I'd have thought you'd been a little more grumpy - what with freedom of movement looking set to remain, and lynching not coming back into vogue...

    (Original post by paul514)

    Brexit won't be able to be truly judged for decades
    Kinda my point really.

    And it's very convenient for Quitters. They made bold promises, but it'll probably be fairly difficult to truly hold them to account. If we do leave the EU, it'll be so far down the line that Quitters will no doubt blame any negative consequences on a whole host of other factors which'll have occurred in the time between now and our eventual exit. That's why a part of me wanted Art. 50 to be invoked quickly.

    However camp Quit hasn't got away scot free. Within a week or so of the referendum, some of their promises fell to pieces. Many of my pro-leave friends were talking of a quick, easy exit with only positive consequences for the UK - and this does't seem to be on the cards. And if we do end up with a Norway type deal, then the whole movement would have achieved nothing other than to have weakened the UK's standing.
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    (Original post by InnerTemple)
    If that's something you want to admit, then fine... I guess? But I'd have thought you'd been a little more grumpy - what with freedom of movement looking set to remain, and lynching not coming back into vogue...



    Kinda my point really.

    And it's very convenient for Quitters. They made bold promises, but it'll probably be fairly difficult to truly hold them to account. If we do leave the EU, it'll be so far down the line that Quitters will no doubt blame any negative consequences on a whole host of other factors which'll have occurred in the time between now and our eventual exit. That's why a part of me wanted Art. 50 to be invoked quickly.

    However camp Quit hasn't got away scot free. Within a week or so of the referendum, some of their promises fell to pieces. Many of my pro-leave friends were talking of a quick, easy exit with only positive consequences for the UK - and this does't seem to be on the cards. And if we do end up with a Norway type deal, then the whole movement would have achieved nothing other than to have weakened the UK's standing.
    Majority of leave supporters like myself couldn't really give a hoot about the mainstream political consensus though their propaganda. We didn't make outrageous claims.

    If I remember correctly I mentioned the fiscal dangers of staying in the EU due to their mass currency devaluations and how the EU economy is a sinking ship. You didn't hear any of that from the mainstream political campaign.It was the same story from the Fisherman. They highlighted the problem of the common fishery policy but was the CFP discussed in the campaign? No it wasn't. It was largely ignored. Only thing that got though was Bob Geldof doing 2 finger salute to Nigel Farage.Now here you are telling leave voters are all fussed about freedom of movement ?!?!?

    To be fair free movement doesn't bother me much because I am part of a strong pro-English community. It only starts effecting people who have let the cultural Marxists turn their communities into bastions of multiculturalism where native peoples feel the minority and resist white flight.I really don't care what anyone says when it comes to "white flight". The majority of British people including myself are extremely insecure around foreigners. You could say we are prone to being perpetrators of racism. The most die hard of euro-sceptics like myself and probably the most racist as well would say let all the foreigners in so the maximum of white flight takes place and then racial/national politics will have a bigger effect.Personally I am not hugely mad that freedom of movement won't be scrapped as I see it as a necessary mechanism to cause shortage of supply within the resources which British citizens depend upon.
    It is really a testimony to see though that all races have their own version of White Flight and that it is more a social issue resulting from gentrification & globalisation. Many people of colour have announced their dis-satisfaction of immigration while living in a bastion of multiculturalism. EEA LITE To be honest I think the UK is going to push for EEA Lite without freedom of movement. Germany won't risk a 10 year short term blow which could mess up its manufacturing industry while bailing out more failed EU states like Greece. So it comes to this.Personally I think your just sore that Britain is reverting to what the majority actually wanted. A trade deal and not a United States of Europe.I know its hard to stomach that the FTSE 250 is rising and the damage Brexit may cause isn't projected as being as severe as all the doom Sayers said it would be but that is reality biting back.Europe is basically the ex-wife that refuses to let go and play ball. They can either exile 1 of there greatest trading partners and suffer greatly or they can grow up and quit trying to form their little empire while the world enjoys financial stability.Its like Nigel Farage said ................................ ...
 
 
 
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