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    (Original post by Mathemagicien)
    Can you imagine how complex economics is? Its a wonder that they've had any success at all with it.

    Economists may get a lot wrong, but they get it right more often than the average person would.
    You're exactly right.

    Why then do economists continue to pronounce with such hubris and confidence on these complex issues?

    Is there a general pressure on them from media, political parties and to some extent the general public for them to give predictions even when they're not 100% confidence. Or are they just overconfident?

    Either way, they've got almost all the big issues wrong in the last 20 years and on that basis alone, we should revise our trust in them considerably.


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    (Original post by shooks)
    My main issue with this story is Morgan Stanley trying to coin the phrase 'Brecession'.
    i thought he was the guy in Supersize Me

    *:teehee: *
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    (Original post by Supersaps)
    So, if it's so unpredictable and no one - not even the experts - can get anything right, what's the point in an economist at all?
    What's the point of weathermen? What's the point of people who monitor potential earthquakes and volcanic eruptions? What's the point of political polling? etc.

    (Original post by Supersaps)
    Why do they all feel the need to speak up about these issues?
    If you were a professional mechanic and you saw your neighbour's car was showing signs of instability, would you warn them, or run the risk of letting them get into an accident?


    (Original post by Supersaps)
    You're exactly right.Either way, they've got almost all the big issues wrong in the last 20 years and on that basis alone, we should revise our trust in them considerably.
    Economists have different knowledge, methods and beliefs. They don't all gather around one table and come to a consensus before making a declaration. You can't say all economists are wrong, all the time.
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    (Original post by Buonaparte)
    x

    Meteorologists, mechanics and even pollsters have a far greater accuracy rate than economists.

    I think even Heskey had a greater accuracy rate than economists, to be fair.


    Economists have been less accurate than a monkey pressing random answers on a keypad.

    There are so many questions to ask but no one seems to be willing to delve into this one. Is it a case of the wrong statistical models being used? Blinded by political bias? A simple fact of chaos theory? What's going on here?


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    (Original post by Supersaps)
    But they seem to have gotten every single big issue in our modern world wrong, haven't they?


    - Didn't forecast the banking crisis

    - Wrong about the Eurozone when we didn't take the Euro

    - Wrong about (at least) the immediate aftermath of brexit.

    In economy we have practically unlimited amount of data, and neither present or even past is known, because it is impossible to collect it or too analize it properly.
    Therefore economical predictions rely massively on individual qualities, economist's doctrine and his interest.

    I'm sure there were economists who predicted those problems properly (and those who came to such conclusions using wrong methods). Do you think they were taken seriously? I doubt it.

    (Original post by Supersaps)
    Is it a case of the wrong statistical models being used? Blinded by political bias? A simple fact of chaos theory? What's going on here?
    All together as usual.
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    (Original post by Supersaps)
    Absolutely. But I think we tend to trust economists a lot more than we trust keyboard warriors.

    But they seem to have gotten every single big issue in our modern world wrong, haven't they?


    - Didn't forecast the banking crisis

    - Wrong about the Eurozone when we didn't take the Euro

    - Wrong about (at least) the immediate aftermath of brexit.


    Why do you think they've been wrong side of pretty much every big issue in the last 20 years? They've been substantially less accurate than a monkey at the aforementioned keyboard.


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    Before the banking crisis, top banks bribed top economists to say that the reckless behaviours of the banks were totally sustainable and without risk.

    Could be a similar thinh going in here, who knows.


    Also, newspapers should be trumpeting about Britian's improving forecast as loudly as possible to help instil confidence in our markets.
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    (((Economists)))

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    (Original post by Supersaps)
    Absolutely. But I think we tend to trust economists a lot more than we trust keyboard warriors.

    But they seem to have gotten every single big issue in our modern world wrong, haven't they?


    - Didn't forecast the banking crisis

    - Wrong about the Eurozone when we didn't take the Euro

    - Wrong about (at least) the immediate aftermath of brexit.


    Why do you think they've been wrong side of pretty much every big issue in the last 20 years? They've been substantially less accurate than a monkey at the aforementioned keyboard.


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    This.

    In general, people don't do well at predicting markets.
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    (Original post by KingBradly)
    Before the banking crisis, top banks bribed top economists to say that the reckless behaviours of the banks were totally sustainable and without risk.

    Could be a similar thinh going in here, who knows.


    Also, newspapers should be trumpeting about Britian's improving forecast as loudly as possible to help instil confidence in our markets.
    Well it was more ratings agencies were rubber stamping very opaque structured debt products which a few at the banks (guys building the products) knew of as being full of terrible loans, and the agencies made sure not to look too closely at what was inside the products so as to keep the flow of business coming from the banks, such was the massive size and growth of the market. Economists at banks and analysts at banks obviously had it in their interests then and now to predict in a way that is in the banks best interests. This plus the enormous pressure of shortermism and the pressure to be right every quarter makes for bad forecasting. Also, Brexit was very personal to most and with so much apparently riding on the referendum and with only two ways to vote people had to be absolutely dogmatic in their views.
 
 
 
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