You may call it tangential but it is a vitally important pair of facts given the seats that need taking.(Original post by Fenice)
The important phrase is not 'council by-elections' but 'decline/increase in support'. The facts run exactly contrary to the forecast you have made of the relationship between support for the Lib Dems and UKIP
Your second paragraph is tangential
Other things that have to be remembered is that currently ukip is seen as pointless, their task for the next 4 years is to redefine themselves, further they are known for poor councilors while the lib dems are known for good councilors. Whether you want to accept it or not UKIP is in the better position to challenge labour for second party over the next few decades.
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What should I do?