Poll: Labour would be more electable if led by Blair

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How helpful is our apprenticeship zone? Have your say with our short survey 02-12-2016
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    (Original post by KimKallstrom)
    The context of my point, which you have ignored, is that people with responsibilities tend to care more about job security and the economy more than things like foreign policy etc which is why Blair was popular despite the Iraq War. It was to counter the revisionist narrative some are driving now which is that Blair's government was primarily characterised by Iraq. I'm saying that since the job market was great, it was a success and most people were happy with it at the time. I expanded on this with the point that people who care more about issues like what is going on abroad etc than the job market tend to be those with few responsibilities of their own. I stand by this.
    I agree on this Iraq point.

    The obvious pointer is that the real election where the Iraq war was an issue was 2005. Blair was voted back in in 2005 and when they were voted out in 2010, Blair was long gone.

    There was probably an Iraq war effect in the gain in votes for the Lib Dems in 2005 as Charles Kennedy at the time was a heavy critic of the Iraq war (and was derided as a traitor by the right-wing press who subsequently laid in to Blair over the Iraq war but didn't apologise to Kennedy...). But it was not enough to vote Blair out.

    My honest view is I don't think the Iraq war changed a lot of peoples view on Blair. There were people that never really liked him, on both the left and of course the Conservatives who hated him for winning elections, who struggled to criticise him in the glory days of 97 to 02, when Blair's big tent appeal meant he had an unprecedented sustained level of popularity for a UK Prime Minister. Iraq gave the first big stick to bash Blair with and so those people laid in to him.

    But as for those who previously liked him, I am not so sure their views were massively changed by the Iraq war.

    The biggest argument against Blair coming back and being successful now is the one about him being a man of his time. Blair was right for the times of the mid 1990s - an economy starting to re-emerge from the turbulence of the 1980s and early 1990s and a vibrant cultural scene and an emerging level of social liberalism, that the Tories were just not in touch with. I don't think Blair is the right man for now.
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    (Original post by KimKallstrom)
    So people who have actual responsibilities and people depending on them have different political outlooks to those who do not? Madness, I know.
    Well I'd call those "responsibilities" chains but whatever. Nothing like a heavily indebted population to make a population of sheep for the wolves.

    Ignore most of what I wrote why not.

    So you accept that most Corbyn supporters in Labour are not that well off and it is the better off who voted for none corbyn candidates? I would like to live on the planet you are living on where students have free easy money and housing/rent in this country is not an issue.

    I'm both a part of precariet (insecure temp min wage warehouse jobs with crap working conditions) and a lower middle class person(parents are graduates who own their own house and have been graduate professionals) who aims for home ownership. So I'm the working class person who hates Labour and the middle class home ownership aspiring middle class person who is supposed to also hate labour. Yet as far as I am concerned it is the left of labour who are the only faction with power in westminister that even agree with me on what is **** about living in the UK for someone like me.

    If it weren't for being a student/my family background and the kind of cultural/intellectual interests I have I would be full on modern crapped on globalisation working class. Economically I am in the same boat as the people I have been working with the last two years. Only thing that can make me middle class is education and factors like that. The stuff you are trying to sell to me is resulting in me falling down below the social class standing I was born into.
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    KimKallstrom This guy knows what he is talking about :yes: =>

    (Original post by MagicNMedicine)
    This always makes me laugh about the narrative of young people in London voting remain because they are part of the well-off metropolitan elite who don't understand the concerns of the "left behind" and can afford to be liberal on immigration...

    Young people in London are about as far left behind as you can get, they have no prospects of getting on the housing ladder and are trapped living in **** being exploited by landlords.
    It is getting really old being told by people who make 10x+ more than me that I am part of the elite when I am living at home at the age of 24 and have never made more than about £6000 in one year and am completely alienated from any decision making on anything more influential than how to load a pallet.

    Also cities have the highest levels of immigration and most of them voted Remain!


    (Original post by MagicNMedicine)

    The biggest argument against Blair coming back and being successful now is the one about him being a man of his time. Blair was right for the times of the mid 1990s - an economy starting to re-emerge from the turbulence of the 1980s and early 1990s and a vibrant cultural scene and an emerging level of social liberalism, that the Tories were just not in touch with. I don't think Blair is the right man for now.
    Yeah I would agree with that.
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    (Original post by MagicNMedicine)
    The biggest argument against Blair coming back and being successful now is the one about him being a man of his time. Blair was right for the times of the mid 1990s - an economy starting to re-emerge from the turbulence of the 1980s and early 1990s and a vibrant cultural scene and an emerging level of social liberalism, that the Tories were just not in touch with. I don't think Blair is the right man for now.
    Was he 'right for the times' because of certain qualities or because he was adaptable, pragmatic and able? I would argue the latter
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    (Original post by KimKallstrom)
    Generally people look past foreign policy issues if the economy is doing well and people have secure jobs and money in their pockets, not the other way around. The only people who tend not to are students and the type of people who take their money for granted because they're always had it so they don't see the importance of job security to feed their families. That's why most Corbyn supporters are middle-class luvvies and why voters in the Labour heartlands can't stand the guy.
    Except this stereotype of Corbyn supporters is completely contradicted by the facts. It's easy to understand why parts of it, at least, are pervasive - even Corbyn has inaccurately claimed that young voters form a major part of his support base. But in actual fact, according to the exit poll:
    - 18-24s were the only age demographic to vote for Owen Smith in the Labour leadership election. Outside that, Corbyn won both 25-39s and 40-59s comfortably, and Over-60s somewhat more narrowly. In other words, Corbyn performed strongest among the clearly working age voters, while performing weakest among the two categories with large numbers of non-working people (students and retirees).
    - While Corbyn won among both ABC1 voters and C2DE voters, he performed more strongly among the latter.
    - For all the claims that Corbyn supporters were disproportionately London-centric and metropolitan, Corbyn only won narrowly in London - he performed strongest in the North, followed by Midlands/Wales, then the rest of the South. Smith only won in Scotland.
    - Corbyn won among both Brexit and Remain voters, though by a much larger margin among the former (though admittedly the Labour membership was overwhelmingly Remain anyway).
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    On the subject of polling.. Ipsos has the Tories on 47%.
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    (Original post by Rakas21)
    On the subject of polling.. Ipsos has the Tories on 47%.
    Can you see anyway back for labour at all genuinely?

    Do you think we will ever have a labour government again? There is no rule to say there must be a Labour Party:
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    (Original post by Bornblue)
    Can you see anyway back for labour at all genuinely?

    Do you think we will ever have a labour government again? There is no rule to say there must be a Labour Party:
    Without a major economic shock, no. It's pretty clear that Brexit won't deliver anything more than a mild slowdown now too.

    Well the ruling party in Singapore has been elected everytime since 1959 and Singapore elections are deemed to be free and fair. At a minimum a ~10% win in 2020 will translate into a majority so large that Labour will be out of power until at least 2030 (i.e. 20 years of Tory rule at a minimum).

    The interesting thing for me is that these leads get bigger everytime she makes a speech with her 'working man' rhetoric. Imagine what could happen when we head towards election debates and she has such a massive platform.

    The inter-war years saw only two elections (i'm ignoring 1931) see the winning party get more than 40% of the vote, when politics reset itself after the war the Tories went from 1950 to 1997 without dropping below 40% more than twice (both in 1974, indeed they hit 49% twice and in 1955 got more than 50% of the Scottish vote). It's possible if May plays her hand correctly that when politics resets itself from the weak 2001-2020 period that the Tories could once again obliterate their opponents in most elections.
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    (Original post by Fenice)
    Was he 'right for the times' because of certain qualities or because he was adaptable, pragmatic and able? I would argue the latter
    If we judge him by his antics since leaving office then it's actually the former.
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    (Original post by ottom)
    If we judge him by his antics since leaving office then it's actually the former.
    Why
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    (Original post by anarchism101)
    Except this stereotype of Corbyn supporters is completely contradicted by the facts. It's easy to understand why parts of it, at least, are pervasive - even Corbyn has inaccurately claimed that young voters form a major part of his support base. But in actual fact, according to the exit poll:
    - 18-24s were the only age demographic to vote for Owen Smith in the Labour leadership election. Outside that, Corbyn won both 25-39s and 40-59s comfortably, and Over-60s somewhat more narrowly. In other words, Corbyn performed strongest among the clearly working age voters, while performing weakest among the two categories with large numbers of non-working people (students and retirees).
    - While Corbyn won among both ABC1 voters and C2DE voters, he performed more strongly among the latter.
    - For all the claims that Corbyn supporters were disproportionately London-centric and metropolitan, Corbyn only won narrowly in London - he performed strongest in the North, followed by Midlands/Wales, then the rest of the South. Smith only won in Scotland.
    - Corbyn won among both Brexit and Remain voters, though by a much larger margin among the former (though admittedly the Labour membership was overwhelmingly Remain anyway).
    Indeed. Corbyn's lukewarm support for the Remain campaign deeply offended many 'middle class luvvies'. I personally know a couple of people who hold views that make Corbyn look like Hayek, yet they voted for Smith due to the Brexit issue.
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    (Original post by Fenice)
    Why
    He seems to firmly believe that his own government was too left-wing and spent much of his memoirs virtually apologising for devolution, the minimum wage, fox hunting ban etc. A bit like hearing Churchill apologise for defeating Nazism.

    Blair was always more ideologically driven than is commonly believed. Look at his government's obsession with allowing private interference in the public services. Even most Tory voters are wary of that so it can't have been for reasons of electability. Rather, it due to a belief in the doctrine of 'socialism via the marketplace' - something which can be traced back to Tony Crosland's "The Future of Socialism".
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    (Original post by ottom)
    He seems to firmly believe that his own government was too left-wing and spent much of his memoirs virtually apologising for devolution, the minimum wage, fox hunting ban etc. A bit like hearing Churchill apologise for defeating Nazism.

    Blair was always more ideologically driven than is commonly believed. Look at his government's obsession with allowing private interference in the public services. Even most Tory voters are wary of that so it can't have been for reasons of electability. Rather, it due to a belief in the doctrine of 'socialism via the marketplace' - something which can be traced back to Tony Crosland's "The Future of Socialism".
    Yup. Blair even admitted as such in his speech to Progress during the 2015 leadership election, when he said he wouldn't want to run on a more strongly left-wing position even if he thought it was more likely to win.
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    (Original post by ottom)

    Blair was always more ideologically driven than is commonly believed. Look at his government's obsession with allowing private interference in the public services. Even most Tory voters are wary of that so it can't have been for reasons of electability. Rather, it due to a belief in the doctrine of 'socialism via the marketplace' - something which can be traced back to Tony Crosland's "The Future of Socialism".
    This is my biggest problem with Labour supporters who tell me how wonderful Blair was because at least he got stuff done like the min wage. He also did a load of **** that there was no reason at all to do. The public doesn't want NHS privatisation but he did it anyway. The left/softleft of labour have some real blinkers when it comes to blair.

    His commitment to the EU and free movement also puts him at odds of the man who is supposed to be just about getting power. I think he is pretty idealistic and radical in his own way. The end of the cold war saw the dawn of the future where liberal democracy of the 90s would spread all over the world and super government like the EU would be more and more dominant in joining the world together and reducing nationalism and borders. Which makes sense when you see how many neocons were former communists. They share a lot of that internationalism. Hence why a lot on the right call him a communists and call the EU the modern soviet union.
 
 
 
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