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Remainers, looks like your wrong.. watch

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    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    This rhetoric is getting tiring, can you not just accept that the campaign was bogus, the treasury declaration, which is what you all clung to, was this would be the first of 4 quarters of contraction.
    I have not at any point ever claimed that the economy would shrink based on the referendum result. Nor would I. Predicting with any accuracy exactly what the economy will do is basically impossible, as it's based on too many factors.

    Also I refute the idea that the economic argument was the sole benefit of being in the EU. There are many other reasons, even if the political campaign didn't focus on them as much.

    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    Admit it, the apocalypse isn't coming.
    I have absolutely no idea what shape the economy will be in when we actually leave the EU and neither do you. Predictions are that it might suffer, but who can actually say? If it does tank, to what extent would Brexit be a factor? It could be that some other disaster ends up hitting us in aa couple years' time completely eclipsing Brexit, in which case all predictions will be basically useless.

    The point is that Brexit is a risk to the economy. Not that it will definitely cause a recession, but that it could be a contributing factor, depending on a million and one other factors that make up the UK's GDP. That was true on the day of the referendum and remains true now, and until Brexit actually happens we won't know either way.
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    (Original post by midnightice)
    Really? You said that it's nonsense to say whether anyone's been proven wrong or right about the immediate effect of a Brexit vote.

    You choose to ignore how utterly wrong the economic predictions have been, which, contrary to your belief, did NOT make any assumption about triggering Article 50 suddenly. They are wrong, yet you choose to ignore it.
    The fact that the predictions of the effects of a Brexit vote were inaccurate does not mean that predictions about Brexit itself are necessarily false. As I mentioned in my reply to Jammy Duel, trying to predict the economy is hard. That doesn't mean that we shouldn't be aware of the storm warnings.

    (Original post by midnightice)
    You also ignore the lies that went along with the economic predictions, including this prediction that UK car manufacturers would lose confidence and cease production - the exact opposite has happened and now you question the relevance. Just laughable.
    Why are you surprised at the fact that politicians lied to defend the EU? Again, one prediction being wrong doesn't mean another prediction must also be wrong, especially if they're coming from different sources and concerning different entities.

    (Original post by midnightice)
    I ask you this: If we experienced a 0.5% contraction, would you blame that on Brexit?

    Of course you would.
    I like how you tacitly assume my opinion on something with absolutely no evidence to back it up. Not to mention you're talking about a completely hypothetical situation that we know nothing about. But to answer your question, in general blaming econonomic downturn on any single event is pretty daft, you need something seriously huge to happen in order to affect an economy as enormous as ours. Brexit itself might qualify, I don't know. The referendum though, clearly not.
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    Hmmm, as a remainer I hope you are eventually proved right on the economy (when we do actually leave).
    Would rather have a brexit that works well economically, despite the vulgar "told you so's" that would come my way than see the economy plunge just to have access to the "told you so" jibe myself (which I wouldn't intend on using btw).
    However, some of us were more worried about slowly becoming a selfish, inward looking, isolated country reflecting some of the worst of humanity. ie. Farage-vision Britain.

    So this is more worrying to me :-(
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-37786916
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    (Original post by Dez)
    The fact that the predictions of the effects of a Brexit vote were inaccurate does not mean that predictions about Brexit itself are necessarily false. As I mentioned in my reply to Jammy Duel, trying to predict the economy is hard. That doesn't mean that we shouldn't be aware of the storm warnings.



    Why are you surprised at the fact that politicians lied to defend the EU? Again, one prediction being wrong doesn't mean another prediction must also be wrong, especially if they're coming from different sources and concerning different entities.



    I like how you tacitly assume my opinion on something with absolutely no evidence to back it up. Not to mention you're talking about a completely hypothetical situation that we know nothing about. But to answer your question, in general blaming econonomic downturn on any single event is pretty daft, you need something seriously huge to happen in order to affect an economy as enormous as ours. Brexit itself might qualify, I don't know. The referendum though, clearly not.
    Apologies if I got the wrong end of the stick, but the general tone of your first comment did make me, understandably, assume you were one of the typical Remoaner types, but clearly you aren't. I think we can agree that economic forecasting is very suspect, more of an art than a science. Most Brexit forecasts are political forecasts; there's no way of determining negotiating positions, hence my frustration when people constantly harp on about their prophecies of doom.
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    (Original post by midnightice)
    Apologies if I got the wrong end of the stick, but the general tone of your first comment did make me, understandably, assume you were one of the typical Remoaner types, but clearly you aren't. I think we can agree that economic forecasting is very suspect, more of an art than a science. Most Brexit forecasts are political forecasts; there's no way of determining negotiating positions, hence my frustration when people constantly harp on about their prophecies of doom.
    Yeah, I don't buy that we're 100% on our way to financial ruin no matter what for one second. It's my belief that Brexit is a serious threat to the economy, but I don't claim for a moment that I have any idea of what's actually going to happen.
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    (Original post by jneill)
    *you're
    It was like an itch, wasn't it?
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    (Original post by Trinculo)
    The thing is with remainers - they actually want the country to fail. There's no space intellectually for any other outcome.

    They want the economy to do badly, as if it does well, they will be completely unable to accept that everything they believed was untrue. They're in a lose/lose situation.
    Not really, it just seems like that from s brexit perspective which thinks it's been a rip roaring success before it's even happened.
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    (Original post by Dez)
    You realise we haven't actually left the EU, right? And that the government won't be enacting Article 50 until next year at the earliest?

    Saying that anyone has been proved right or wrong at this stage is pure idiocy.

    / thread.

    (Original post by Trinculo)
    The thing is with remainers - they actually want the country to fail. There's no space intellectually for any other outcome.

    They want the economy to do badly, as if it does well, they will be completely unable to accept that everything they believed was untrue. They're in a lose/lose situation.
    "No space intellectually"?

    Dumbest thing I've read all day, cheers.
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    (Original post by Dez)
    I have not at any point ever claimed that the economy would shrink based on the referendum result. Nor would I. Predicting with any accuracy exactly what the economy will do is basically impossible, as it's based on too many factors.

    Also I refute the idea that the economic argument was the sole benefit of being in the EU. There are many other reasons, even if the political campaign didn't focus on them as much.



    I have absolutely no idea what shape the economy will be in when we actually leave the EU and neither do you. Predictions are that it might suffer, but who can actually say? If it does tank, to what extent would Brexit be a factor? It could be that some other disaster ends up hitting us in aa couple years' time completely eclipsing Brexit, in which case all predictions will be basically useless.

    The point is that Brexit is a risk to the economy. Not that it will definitely cause a recession, but that it could be a contributing factor, depending on a million and one other factors that make up the UK's GDP. That was true on the day of the referendum and remains true now, and until Brexit actually happens we won't know either way.
    So we didn't get this "promise" from the Treasury that we were looking at 0.1-1% cosatraction and instead got what was predicted for staying:


    Not to mention the 71% of economists predicting recession, Morgan Stanley claiming 0.4% Q3 contraction, 0.3% from the IMF, total short term of 1.25% from the OECD. All these "promises" were made but instead we get this 0.5% growth. But it's not even unique to brexit, it is the way that the EU ALWAYS operates, the campaigns always go "do what the EU says or your economy will implode."
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    If over the next few years, unemployment and inflation rise, growth flatlines or goes negative, the British people won't be conned in to believing it was them that caused it by voting for Brexit, they will know its the fault of the Conservative government. If things go wrong they will never trust the Conservatives on the economy again.
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    (Original post by Dez)
    You realise we haven't actually left the EU, right? And that the government won't be enacting Article 50 until next year at the earliest?

    Saying that anyone has been proved right or wrong at this stage is pure idiocy.
    Every economist in the country repeated over and over again that the UNCERTAINTY is what was going to be the most damaging.
    This is one source from the financial times before the vote:
    "it is not just the economic troubles after we leave the EU, but indeed the economic troubles that we will face before the negotiations have even begun. The uncertainty will lead this country into a DIY recession with a collapse in the FTSE 100 and a long period of effectively zero investment"

    So yes the 'experts' have been proved wrong.
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    I can understand where the remainers are coming from though. No seriously I can because the EU is soooooooooooooo great isn't it.
    I mean leaving aside the fact that it has the slowest economic growth of any region in the world bar Antarctica. Ignoring the fact we have to acept an immigration policy that primarily dose not decide your application on your credentials but the continent you happen to live in. Turning away from the fact that Switzerland with a GDP a little over 25% of the UK has made more successful trade deals than the EU. Sticking our heads in the sand and refusing to believe the fact that our laws are made buy unelected bureaucrats.
    If you completely dismiss all of those 'minor' things then yes the EU is a really grate place. I wish I could be a remainer because I would just love to believe that everything is fine and rosy and works perfectly. But it doesn't and that's a fact.
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    The most important issue for me though is democracy, more than economics and immigration, democracy.
    There are five presidents of the European Commission's institutions.
    Five presidents that make our laws.
    Five presidents that don't stand for a political party.
    Five presidents that have never been on a ballot box for the office they now hold.
    Five presidents that have supreme power over our national government.
    Five presidents where not a single one is British and have not been since 1977.
    Five presidents that decided our future.
    Can you even name a single one?
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    (Original post by Dez)
    You realise we haven't actually left the EU, right? And that the government won't be enacting Article 50 until next year at the earliest?

    Saying that anyone has been proved right or wrong at this stage is pure idiocy.
    But hang on Gideon said we would have a snap recession which is 100% wrong
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    (Original post by Trinculo)
    The thing is with remainers - they actually want the country to fail. There's no space intellectually for any other outcome.

    They want the economy to do badly, as if it does well, they will be completely unable to accept that everything they believed was untrue. They're in a lose/lose situation.
    Not at all, I was a hard core remainer and now I hope the country wil make a success of it but I won't be quiet if things don't go to plan as the Brexiters say it will happen- eg when trade deals take absolutely forever to make post brexit and we never see that 350 million pound.

    Imagine if we'd voted to stay in by 52% and then in 2018 Turkey joined the EU, would leavers be sore losers for pointing out that they'd warned us this would happen, or would they quietly accep the 'people's will' and try and make the best if it?
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    (Original post by MagicNMedicine)
    If over the next few years, unemployment and inflation rise, growth flatlines or goes negative, the British people won't be conned in to believing it was them that caused it by voting for Brexit, they will know its the fault of the Conservative government. If things go wrong they will never trust the Conservatives on the economy again.
    You mean like they wont ever trust Labor again with the economy as this country was driven into the largest recession we have ever experienced as a nation, thank God the Conservatives have managed to get us to a point now where the FTSE is at its highest ever level and we are working towards a budget surplus.
    How much quicker could this be achieved if Momentum, of which the Labor leader is a leading member, would stop orchestrating strikes to cause social and economic unrest.
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...ase-chaos.html
 
 
 
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