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    (Original post by the bear)
    The 15th April 2013 is the 100th anniversary of the birth of Kim Jong Il, grandpa of nutcase supremo Kim Jong Un... he may well celebrate this Special Day by invading South Korea or trying to nuke Japan or America...
    That's compeltely wrong. The grandpa of Kim Jong-un is Kim Il-sung. Kim Jong-il is Kim Jong-un's father. It was Kim Il-sung that was born on the 15th April, but that was in 1912. It will be the 101st anniversary of his birth, not the 100th.
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    (Original post by CelticSymphony67)
    I'm disputing the fact that NK are in a time warp, but to simply dismiss them is foolish. If they were running around the Korean Peninsula with Bow and Arrows, then fair enough, but they are not. There weapons may well be a bit outdated, but they can still do a great deal of damage, and the NK troops will outnumber the US 2 to 1.
    Agreed. The proximity to Seoul and Tokyo means the regime poses a huge danger - but they wouldn't go on the offensive, unless Kim Jong-un has a serious death wish - and don't forget, in addition to the US troops already stationed in the south, more US troops can be dispatched to the peninsula if/when needed.

    On another note, do South Korea, Japan or the US have missile defence technology? I remember hearing it somewhere on the BBC, a white house representative made a mention of it...

    And I agree again, dismissing them isn't a smart thing to do but in the past when they've made these big bold threats, they've never actually carried them out. Other than a few occasional attacks such as the Cheonan sinking.

    This time, all they've done is close off Kaesong and shut off the communication line between the two Korean militaries. If their words translated to action, they would've done more severe things like e.g incarcerating the South Koreans who were in Kaesong at the time, or even torturing them to provoke the South's government.

    Clearly they know that doing anything drastic leads to much stronger repercussions from the US and its allies. They're completely alone, even their only ally China's getting fed up - they want stability on the peninsula and as usual, North is raising tensions.

    As I've explained in the past, something tells me the regime's trying to achieve three objectives through this rhetoric:

    - extract economic aid and diplomatic talks through false, hollow promises to de-nuclearise

    - domestic consumption - higher-ups in the government and military, as well as the general public believe Kim Jong-Un is too inexperienced, and he's simply trying to enforce his authority and put on an act to drum up support from his countrymen

    - sustaining the regime - looking at Iraq, Libya, etc...the North knows that if they give up their nuclear weapons, then it's safer for US troops to invade the country and topple the regime, as with Gaddafi and Hussein. The nuclear weapons are a form of security, which guarantees the regime that it won't be attacked.

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    As a spectator to this international crisis I want to add:

    FIGHT! FIGHT! FIGHT! FIGHT! FIGHT! FIGHT! FIGHT!
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    (Original post by ss_s95)
    On another note, do South Korea, Japan or the US have missile defence technology? I remember hearing it somewhere on the BBC, a white house representative made a mention of it...
    SK & Japan - some. Seoul has some pretty extensive defences built in nearby, but not quite enough to make any attack redundant.

    US has much more and more extensive defences, both ship-borne and land-based, which is what they've deployed recently to the area.
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    (Original post by Angry Spartan)
    That's compeltely wrong. The grandpa of Kim Jong-un is Kim Il-sung. Kim Jong-il is Kim Jong-un's father. It was Kim Il-sung that was born on the 15th April, but that was in 1912. It will be the 101st anniversary of his birth, not the 100th.
    they are all a bunch of turds whatever they call themselves
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    (Original post by NabRoh)
    He wouldn't start a war with the USA, he would lose. He knows it.
    North Korea's only real ally is China and even they voted for the sanctions imposed against NK.
    Kim attacking South Korea is far more likely but that would rapidly descend into a "tit-for-tat" exchange yielding little fruit at the expense of lives.
    The problem is that the USA is looking for any opportunity to deal with the 'North Korea threat' and Kim jong un knows it as did his father and grandfather. They are being pressured into such rhetoric to show that the leaders are not weak at home, as any weakness will be exploited by the USA to no ends.

    If the USA keep matching the North's moves then it could spiral into the worst case scenario, despite whether or not they know they'd lose, again something the USA would love to happen.
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    (Original post by HumanSupremacist)
    But I do think it silly and just posturing as they're basically saying "We're going to attack after April 10", which certainly throws any element of surprise down the drain.
    Yeah, because otherwise they'd have caught us all completely by surprise. I mean, it's not as if we've been watching the country quite closely for the past month... oh wait.



    I saw a NK rocket drill recently. I'm not scared:
    Spoiler:
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    Am I being paranoid in being very worried about all of this or do people think North Korea really will strike at some point?

    In any case, weren't we warned about going this close to the brink in 1962? I don't think Julian Barnes was being completely facetious when he wrote that history is akin to a 'raw onion sandwich'.
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    (Original post by Mockery)
    The problem is that the USA is looking for any opportunity to deal with the 'North Korea threat' and Kim jong un knows it as did his father and grandfather. They are being pressured into such rhetoric to show that the leaders are not weak at home, as any weakness will be exploited by the USA to no ends.

    If the USA keep matching the North's moves then it could spiral into the worst case scenario, despite whether or not they know they'd lose, again something the USA would love to happen.
    Personally I don't think the USA would get their hands dirty with the situation. They would delegate the responsibility to their allies closer to NK.

    (Original post by Drewski)
    Yeah, because otherwise they'd have caught us all completely by surprise. I mean, it's not as if we've been watching the country quite closely for the past month... oh wait.



    I saw a NK rocket drill recently. I'm not scared:
    Spoiler:
    Show
    Haha. Probably fake though...
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    (Original post by green.tea)
    My point is that the states can't attack everyone at once. Have you seen the size of the landmass they'd be fighting across? If China stands by its agreement with NK, which facts on the ground suggest it will the risk of escalation is real due to the regions network of strategic inter reliance.
    I still maintain that China will not go to war against the United States, regardless of any defense pacts with NK. The Chinese are smart and patient. They want dominance, sure - but they will not be stupid and reckless about it. Even if it takes China 100 years to become sole top superpower, they will wait and bide their time and advance.

    Both nations will not go to war, especially when both have nukes at hand, one with thousands more active warheads than the other.

    People who believe China would actually fight against the United States in this period are in complete fantasy land. Both countries are more closer than ever if anything. They are certainly not enemies. Both countries are also aware that their economies rely on each other - they're both so intertwined. If one goes down, the other surely goes down, the worse one off being China.

    And don't get me started on Russia - all of this "East vs West" thing is very outdated. Really, the most anti-US/Western approaches, apart from NK, come from some Islamic elements in the ME etc, not from Russia or China.

    War between China and the US would be economic suicide for both states, hence why it will not occur anytime soon.
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    I doubt it. Kim Il Sung tried a crazy invasion and it didn't exactly pay off. There'll probably just be more marching and shouting than usual.
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    (Original post by Drewski)
    Yeah, because otherwise they'd have caught us all completely by surprise. I mean, it's not as if we've been watching the country quite closely for the past month... oh wait.



    I saw a NK rocket drill recently. I'm not scared:
    Spoiler:
    Show
    There are two sides to NK's seemingly incompetent and silly behaviour:

    1. They are actually incompetent and silly.

    Or,

    2. They put up that facade in order to deceive and be underestimated by the outside world (take South Korea, for example - right now, ask any South Korean actually in SK and they'll be calm and tell you that they're not worried by NK's recent escalation in rhetoric.)
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    (Original post by HumanSupremacist)
    There are two sides to NK's seemingly incompetent and silly behaviour:

    1. They are actually incompetent and silly.

    Or,

    2. They put up that facade in order to deceive and be underestimated by the outside world (take South Korea, for example - right now, ask any South Korean actually in SK and they'll be calm and tell you that they're not worried by NK's recent escalation in rhetoric.)
    They're not aware enough to do that. Every piece of evidence points towards them believing their own rhetoric. They're nowhere near the level of the Russians and their skillset from the height of Soviet paranoia.
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    The OP does seem to have played too much 'CoD'! But, it is unlikely NK will launch anything as, like a previous submitter said, they know that there country would be destroyed. The fact that China, NK's only ally, who hates the West/US is actually turning against NK shows how stupid the threats are. China voted for restrictions on NK's nuclear testing. China don't want North Korea destroyed as it is a country which is easy to control to assist China's aims so would probably pull on Kim's lead a bit. Also, Kim just wants to achieve what his dad and granddad couldn't, to have personal contact to the USA for aid etc.


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    Section Leader
    If there is a conflict then it's our responsibility to crush the NK government totally and emancipate its oppressed citizens. That they have gotten away with the horrors that they have for so long is already unspeakable.
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    There's one thing that worries me slightly

    - First of all, no way does NK have the capability to nuke the UK or mainland USA

    - They could easily nuke SK, but then they'd die from radioactive fallout, so that's not an option

    - The one thing they could do though, fire nukes at Guam, Japan, Hawaii etc

    - USA could not reliate as its nukes would affect South Korea as well.

    So basically Hawaii and Japan are in grave danger
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    (Original post by Bronco2012)
    - USA could not reliate as its nukes would affect South Korea as well
    Just because they would be unlikely to retaliate with nukes does not mean they wouldn't retaliate.
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    If they do something that ****s up student loan day, I'll march to Pyongyang myself and call Kim Jong-Un a c*nt. To his face. In-front of his mother.
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    (Original post by Drewski)
    Just because they would be unlikely to retaliate with nukes does not mean they wouldn't retaliate.
    Can't exactly send the troops in, that would be Vietnam all over again.
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    Hope my mum doesn't hear this news .. flying to SE Asia on the 15th. Eeep. :afraid:
 
 
 
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