The Commons Bar Mk IX - MHoC Chat Thread Watch

This discussion is closed.
Rakas21
Badges: 21
Rep:
?
#4161
Report 4 years ago
#4161
(Original post by That Bearded Man)
By moving central he's disappointed alot of Socialist Labourites who would quite like an SNP coalition. He's also going to oversee the destruction of Scottish Labour, so understandable he'll get alot of flak. As for Cameron, it seems the main threat is Boris and his fans.
To be fair i don't think he's as much to blame for Scottish Labour's collapse as people say.

Rather i think that the governments of 79-10 all precipitated the N-S divide which allowed the SNP to rise to power by 2007 and they were then gifted by the recession, the referendum i believe would have allowed people to rally under the SNP regardless given that they get to say there's a recession made in Wesminster and austerity from Westminster.
0
That Bearded Man
Badges: 22
Rep:
?
#4162
Report 4 years ago
#4162
(Original post by Rakas21)
To be fair i don't think he's as much to blame for Scottish Labour's collapse as people say.

Rather i think that the governments of 79-10 all precipitated the N-S divide which allowed the SNP to rise to power by 2007 and they were then gifted by the recession, the referendum i believe would have allowed people to rally under the SNP regardless given that they get to say there's a recession made in Wesminster and austerity from Westminster.
I don't think he can be blamed either, blame Jim Murphy perhaps, but the Scots and the English are totally different people. He has made a tactical gamble that the SNP will rather vote him in than not regardless, if it fails, Scottish Labour needs to either accept a central role or separate from the English Labour ideas
0
TeeEff
Badges: 21
Rep:
?
#4163
Report 4 years ago
#4163
Not sure if its been mentioned already but the Independent has surprisingly indicated preference for a continued Conservative-Liberal coalition in the event of a hung parliament.
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/...-10224221.html

Posted from TSR Mobile
0
Rakas21
Badges: 21
Rep:
?
#4164
Report 4 years ago
#4164
(Original post by That Bearded Man)
I don't think he can be blamed either, blame Jim Murphy perhaps, but the Scots and the English are totally different people. He has made a tactical gamble that the SNP will rather vote him in than not regardless, if it fails, Scottish Labour needs to either accept a central role or separate from the English Labour ideas
Murphy i don't think can be blamed either, the damage was done when the referendum gave the SNP the biggest marketing platform they'll ever have. Social attitude surveys suggest the Scottish are not the radical socialists they are portrayed to be, it's just that Wesminster has done nothing for them in decades. Case in point, HS2 stops at Leeds. The Olympics were in London. Even here in Leeds and Manchester most people view the success during the last business cycle as being in spite of Westminster rather than because of it.
0
username1524603
Badges: 14
Rep:
?
#4165
Report 4 years ago
#4165
(Original post by The Financier)
Not sure if its been mentioned already but the Independent has surprisingly indicated preference for a continued Conservative-Liberal coalition in the event of a hung parliament.
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/...-10224221.html
I think anyone imaging a Conservative - Liberal Democrat coalition is being very optimistic about the number of seats the Conservatives will win. I forsee a situation where the Conservatives win 280, Labour win 270, Lib Dems win 20, SNP win 59, DUP win 8, and UKIP win 4. A Conservative-Lib Dem coalition supported by the DUP and UKIP will still not be enough to be effective, leaving Labour-Nat as the only option available.
0
KingStannis
Badges: 3
Rep:
?
#4166
Report 4 years ago
#4166
(Original post by That Bearded Man)
By moving central he's disappointed alot of Socialist Labourites who would quite like an SNP coalition. He's also going to oversee the destruction of Scottish Labour, so understandable he'll get alot of flak. As for Cameron, it seems the main threat is Boris and his fans.
Well, actually Ed's moved progressively to the left with each new policy. And I think by allowing the Scots a way to have it both ways, they might in the future decide to vote SNP as their way of getting labour. By not allowing that watershed to occur now I think he's bought labour time to let the Scots get bored of this nationalist wave and become convinced to pragmatically vote labour again.
0
Jammy Duel
  • Political Ambassador
Badges: 21
Rep:
?
#4167
Report 4 years ago
#4167
(Original post by Nigel Farage MEP)
I think anyone imaging a Conservative - Liberal Democrat coalition is being very optimistic about the number of seats the Conservatives will win. I forsee a situation where the Conservatives win 280, Labour win 270, Lib Dems win 20, SNP win 59, DUP win 8, and UKIP win 4. A Conservative-Lib Dem coalition supported by the DUP and UKIP will still not be enough to be effective, leaving Labour-Nat as the only option available.
Personally I'm predicting high 280s for con, high 20s for Lib Dem and with the adsence of Sinn Fein, the DUP in favour along with UKIP and maybe a couple of rebel Labour MPs a Con-Lib Queen's speech will just pass.

However, if you've been keeping up with toher threads I also expect a left leaning Lib Dem leader around about xmas/new year and a break down of the coalition in no more than a year, followed by another election early 2017, whether than by repealing FTPa and reinstating the old system, VoNC mid-late next year or a vote in favour of another election under FTPA.

Lab-Nat would be even more unstable and thus I would say that the Queen would go for Con-Lib first, even if tha doesn't pass I think there will be enough SNP rebels that a Labour minority Queens speech won't pass and we wil be stuck at an impasse.
0
The Mighty Mitch
Badges: 1
Rep:
?
#4168
Report 4 years ago
#4168
Scottish Labour is f***ed if they don't do a deal with the SNP
0
Aph
Badges: 22
Rep:
?
#4169
Report 4 years ago
#4169
The stupidity:facepalm:
Listening to people say that they wont vote labour because ed looks like a character from chicken run.

Posted from TSR Mobile
0
riamila
Badges: 10
#4170
Report 4 years ago
#4170
Anyone seen the trews recently? Russell Brand's had a bit of an epiphany
0
Rakas21
Badges: 21
Rep:
?
#4171
Report 4 years ago
#4171
Galloway seemed happy and confident of holding his seat.
0
Jammy Duel
  • Political Ambassador
Badges: 21
Rep:
?
#4172
Report 4 years ago
#4172
Yougov seem to disagree. While there is no solid data and they declare it too close to call, it's very close in favour of Labour. I damn well hope Labour take his seat, the sooner he's out of the Commons the better.
0
Rakas21
Badges: 21
Rep:
?
#4173
Report 4 years ago
#4173
Difficult to choose between voting on a national basis or voting on a constituency basis. Nationally i'm 90% sure that unless IDS annoys me in the DP Welfare debate i'd vote Conservative. On a local level though my candidates in 05 and 10 were councillors and very good while this one i'm not sold on having met the candidates, as a British Muslim i'm also not sure if he has the resolve to support an active foreign policy. But then the choice for my second and third preference is a left leaning Lib Dem (would he vote to put Labour back in) or a kipper who's 2 years out of uni.

That said the seat will likely be Labour anyway.
0
Rakas21
Badges: 21
Rep:
?
#4174
Report 4 years ago
#4174
(Original post by Jammy Duel)
Yougov seem to disagree. While there is no solid data and they declare it too close to call, it's very close in favour of Labour. I damn well hope Labour take his seat, the sooner he's out of the Commons the better.
Bookies suggest he'll hold it and the Labour campaign has been marred by controversy even if Galloway is.
0
That Bearded Man
Badges: 22
Rep:
?
#4175
Report 4 years ago
#4175
I'm now not voting, I was prepared to travel home to vote but in my constituency I'm now stuck with Alliance and SDLP, who's absence prevented the gay marriage bill from passing and a hopeless Sinn Fein candiate. Not worth travelling home for.
0
meenu89
Badges: 19
Rep:
?
#4176
Report 4 years ago
#4176
Anybody want to guess as to how each party will do seat wise?

I think SNP will have 50, UKIP will have 2, and Liberal Democrats 25.
0
Aph
Badges: 22
Rep:
?
#4177
Report 4 years ago
#4177
(Original post by meenu89)
Anybody want to guess as how party will do seat wise?

I think SNP will have 50, UKIP will have 2, and Liberal Democrats 25.
My heart: SNP: 51, green: 20, plaid: 10, UKIP: 1 LD: 30

my head: SNP: 49, green: 1/2, plaid: 3, UKIP: 2, LD: 20
0
Jammy Duel
  • Political Ambassador
Badges: 21
Rep:
?
#4178
Report 4 years ago
#4178
(Original post by meenu89)
Anybody want to guess as how party will do seat wise?

I think SNP will have 50, UKIP will have 2, and Liberal Democrats 25.
For those three, 40, 2, 30 respectively, give or take
Main parties, 285-290 con, 265-275 lab

Posted from TSR Mobile
0
PetrosAC
  • Political Ambassador
Badges: 20
Rep:
?
#4179
Report 4 years ago
#4179
Con 290-300
Lab 270-280
SNP 40-50
LD 30-40
UKIP 2
GRN 1

Posted from TSR Mobile
0
TeeEff
Badges: 21
Rep:
?
#4180
Report 4 years ago
#4180
(Original post by meenu89)
Anybody want to guess as how party will do seat wise?

I think SNP will have 50, UKIP will have 2, and Liberal Democrats 25.
CON: 285
LAB: 270 (dependent on the Scottish vote of course)
LIB: 26
UKIP: 1 (perhaps 2 if Thanet South is taken)
GRN: 1
SNP: 51
Others: 16
0
X
new posts
Back
to top
Latest
My Feed

See more of what you like on
The Student Room

You can personalise what you see on TSR. Tell us a little about yourself to get started.

Personalise

Why wouldn't you turn to teachers if you were being bullied?

They might tell my parents (11)
6.04%
They might tell the bully (18)
9.89%
I don't think they'd understand (32)
17.58%
It might lead to more bullying (69)
37.91%
There's nothing they could do (52)
28.57%

Watched Threads

View All