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    In January, the same Kim Jong Un called for peace and better ties with South Korea.

    What has changed?

    1) Military pressure - which is likely as senior members of the regime may favour an old-style approach?
    2) USA-South Korea military exercises have forced him into a position where he has to appear strong to his people and rebuke the "threat" from the outside world? He did originally say in his speech that continued confrontations would lead to conflict.

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/vide...r-speech-video

    North Korea does not have the capacity to launch a nuclear attack on the US mainland. Any such attack however on South Korea, Guam or Japan would however have the same consequence for DPRK as attacking the US mainland - i.e. they'd come under global condemnation and would inevitably be on the receiving end of a much stronger retaliation.

    So I hope they aren't stupid enough to engage in war.
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    (Original post by Bronco2012)
    There's one thing that worries me slightly

    - First of all, no way does NK have the capability to nuke the UK or mainland USA

    - They could easily nuke SK, but then they'd die from radioactive fallout, so that's not an option

    - The one thing they could do though, fire nukes at Guam, Japan, Hawaii etc

    - USA could not reliate as its nukes would affect South Korea as well.


    So basically Hawaii and Japan are in grave danger
    Shoot, I never thought of it like that! :beard:

    (Original post by Drewski)
    Just because they would be unlikely to retaliate with nukes does not mean they wouldn't retaliate.
    Yes, but would they retaliate with nukes? Apparently probably not, because it would affect SK.
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    (Original post by EllaBella<3)
    Hope my mum doesn't hear this news .. flying to SE Asia on the 15th. Eeep. :afraid:
    Oooh, and that's peak time for a conflict, if not post-conflict as a big anniversary is nearing then, especially as NK warned embassies that they can't guarantee their safety after April 10th and asked them to leave or suffer the consequences.
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    (Original post by miser)
    If there is a conflict then it's our responsibility to crush the NK government totally and emancipate its oppressed citizens. That they have gotten away with the horrors that they have for so long is already unspeakable.
    I agree, but how do you propose destroying the government without inflicting concomitant damage on the citizens?
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    (Original post by HumanSupremacist)
    I still maintain that China will not go to war against the United States, regardless of any defense pacts with NK. The Chinese are smart and patient. They want dominance, sure - but they will not be stupid and reckless about it. Even if it takes China 100 years to become sole top superpower, they will wait and bide their time and advance.

    Both nations will not go to war, especially when both have nukes at hand, one with thousands more active warheads than the other.

    People who believe China would actually fight against the United States in this period are in complete fantasy land. Both countries are more closer than ever if anything. They are certainly not enemies. Both countries are also aware that their economies rely on each other - they're both so intertwined. If one goes down, the other surely goes down, the worse one off being China.

    And don't get me started on Russia - all of this "East vs West" thing is very outdated. Really, the most anti-US/Western approaches, apart from NK, come from some Islamic elements in the ME etc, not from Russia or China.

    War between China and the US would be economic suicide for both states, hence why it will not occur anytime soon.
    How credible would China's saying things like "If you mess with Pakistan you mess with us" be if they were seen to back down on their NK treaty for fear of losing trade?
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    (Original post by green.tea)
    How credible would China's saying things like "If you mess with Pakistan you mess with us" be if they were seen to back down on their NK treaty for fear of losing trade?
    Point conceded.

    But rationally thinking, it would not be in China's best interest to war with the United States - but your point does indeed stand.

    Indeed, if China were to enforce the defense pact in the event that North Korea is attacked (even after NK attacked though?), then I would be both highly surprise and both worried. It would be highly shocking in the least. Although China is not yet up to the capabilities of the United States, there is no doubt that it is a behemoth and an emerging megapower, we can say so. I would fear for the future of the current order were such events to occur - it might even set off a devastating chain reaction - what would Russia do? India? Japan? Britain? What would happen in the Middle East?

    All of these various series of consequences lead me to believe that it is highly unlikely that China and the United States will undergo a direct confrontation with each other - as I said, it would be economic suicide and would probably lead to a great destabilization in the world order and probably a complete destruction of the current world order altogether.

    But as I said - China isn't stupid. If it knows what it's doing, in the event NK does do something outrageous and worthy of retaliation, it would probably invade NK itself and thereby put SK and the US at bay and also cement its position on the Korean peninsula.
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    (Original post by green.tea)
    How credible would China's saying things like "If you mess with Pakistan you mess with us" be if they were seen to back down on their NK treaty for fear of losing trade?
    It's hardly just trade, it's their entire economic well being. The CCP's legitimacy is based on economic prosperity if that goes they will go shortly afterwards, they aren't going to risk their power for North Korea. Plenty of people also doubt how credible China's rhetoric towards Pakistan is.
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    (Original post by Drewski)
    SK & Japan - some. Seoul has some pretty extensive defences built in nearby, but not quite enough to make any attack redundant.

    US has much more and more extensive defences, both ship-borne and land-based, which is what they've deployed recently to the area.
    Actually I doubt Japan will be drawn into this. The stock markets don't seem to think so either.
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    (Original post by KingMessi)
    I agree, but how do you propose destroying the government without inflicting concomitant damage on the citizens?
    I'm by no means a military strategist so I can't comment on what would be the best method of approach, but I am accepting of the inevitability that a number of innocents would be harmed. However, what the NK government is doing is to them of its own accord is no salvation to them either, and so we must act against them or else we are simply complicit.
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    (Original post by Aj12)
    It's hardly just trade, it's their entire economic well being. The CCP's legitimacy is based on economic prosperity if that goes they will go shortly afterwards, they aren't going to risk their power for North Korea. Plenty of people also doubt how credible China's rhetoric towards Pakistan is.
    Well them wanting to keep their rhetoric seemingly credible will be a factor in what happens along with not wanting Americans close by, arms deals and whatnot. I'm just worried that there's a potential for escalation.
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    (Original post by green.tea)
    Well them wanting to keep their rhetoric seemingly credible will be a factor in what happens along with not wanting Americans close by, arms deals and whatnot. I'm just worried that there's a potential for escalation.
    Hence why so many think if Nk launched an attack you would see China roll across the border to put in a puppet government. America and China won't come to conflict over this. Unless people in either capital completely lose their minds
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    He won't nuke the States. He doesn't have the balls.
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    (Original post by Barden)
    If they do something that ****s up student loan day, I'll march to Pyongyang myself and call Kim Jong-Un a c*nt. To his face. In-front of his mother.
    You ballsy bugger... i like it.
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    Don't underestimate what they can do! I never believe talks like 'experts said they don't have the nuke capacity...' When u put a country under so much pressure they could do something that could shake the world, ppl in there are almost brainwashed so they dont have anything to lose, whereas the likes of Japan and US got too much to lose. However, I do think whatever they do they won't nuke the US and btw China might be more worrying if a war breaks out!


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    (Original post by maple1736)
    Don't underestimate what they can do! I never believe talks like 'experts said they don't have the nuke capacity...' When u put a country under so much pressure they could do something that could shake the world, ppl in there are almost brainwashed so they dont have anything to lose, whereas the likes of Japan and US got too much to lose. However, I do think whatever they do they won't nuke the US and btw China might be more worrying if a war breaks out!


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    They may well have nuke capacity. This isn't the point, because Un doesn't have the gall to bomb anybody. He's a nutcase, but he isn't stupid, because he knows the Americans will easily be able to shoot down a DPRK warhead before it hits US soil. He also knows that doing this will give the US a concrete excuse to fire back at him, and absolutely nobody will stop them. End result of Un firing a nuke? Not good for him. That's why he won't do it.
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    In light of North Korea warning embassies that they cannot guarantee the safety of embassies or their staff after April 10th, I thought it well and good to point out that April 15th is the birthday of Kim Il-Sung, North Korea's founder and grandfather of Kim Jong-Un.

    Analysts speculate that North Korea could either launch an attack close to that date or on that day or conduct a test or generally make a show of carrying out their threats.
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    North Korea officially declare war on the USA.
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    Misleading links will not be tolerated. :pierre:
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    (Original post by HumanSupremacist)
    Misleading links will not be tolerated. :pierre:
    Shh don't give it away
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    (Original post by miser)
    I'm by no means a military strategist so I can't comment on what would be the best method of approach, but I am accepting of the inevitability that a number of innocents would be harmed. However, what the NK government is doing is to them of its own accord is no salvation to them either, and so we must act against them or else we are simply complicit.
    I see. So you're advocating a preemptive strike? I don't think I disagree. It's very difficult to know precisely what's occurring in North Korea as they are so obscurantist, but I've always found their authoritarian modus operandi to be absolutely reprehensible.

    I'm no political commentator, either - were we to do so, what would be the probable retribution? As far as I can see, China has been condemning North Korea and supporting sanctions against them, but would the situation change if we were to attack them? Are Russia and North Korea not allies, too?
 
 
 
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