The Commons Bar Mk IX - MHoC Chat Thread Watch

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talentedlobster
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#4181
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#4181
Well, I'll just go with the guy which predicted the US election 100% correct and go

281 Con
267 Lab
51 SNP
26 LD
1 GRN
1 UKIP
15 Others (DUP 8 Sinn 5 SDLP 3)
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Aph
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#4182
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#4182
(Original post by The Financier)
CON: 285
LAB: 270 (dependent on the Scottish vote of course)
LIB: 26
UKIP: 1 (perhaps 2 with 1 taken from the Tories)
GRN: 1
SNP: 51
Others: 16
That maths not right? NI has 18 seats:confused: or am I missing something?
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TeeEff
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#4183
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#4183
(Original post by Aph)
That maths not right? NI has 18 seats:confused: or am I missing something?
Oops.

CON: 281
LAB: 268
LIB: 26
UKIP: 1
GRN: 1
SNP: 51
Other: 22
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talentedlobster
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(Original post by Jammy Duel)
Yougov seem to disagree. While there is no solid data and they declare it too close to call, it's very close in favour of Labour. I damn well hope Labour take his seat, the sooner he's out of the Commons the better.
Never use polls, they don't work just because of the questions they ask. Polls should only be used by statistical analysts that know how they need to do so that the data says something realistic.
That's why when you look statistically look at what the bookies have put down as their odds for each party, they have a reason to get it right and normally they do.
I would advise looking at stats from a website such as fivethirtyeight, as they normally give a much better predictor than data such as polls.
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Rakas21
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#4185
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#4185
Landbrookes apparently reporting a late surge of money going for a Tory win in both votes and seats.
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username1524603
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#4186
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#4186
(Original post by Rakas21)
Landbrookes apparently reporting a late surge of money going for a Tory win in both votes and seats.
With the SNP on course to win every seat in Scotland it is unlikely Labour will manage to gain and Conservatives lose a combined 41 seats in England and Wales.
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Jammy Duel
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#4187
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#4187
(Original post by Nigel Farage MEP)
With the SNP on course to win every seat in Scotland it is unlikely Labour will manage to gain and Conservatives lose a combined 41 seats in England and Wales.
They won't win every seat. Labour will keep at least some in the cities and the Tories will at least maintain one boarder seat, possibly winning one or two more based on their strength in the boarder regions and the splitting of the left vote.

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Aph
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#4188
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#4188
One rep point away from my next gem. :sad: why do people have to do that.
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Saracen's Fez
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#4189
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#4189
(Original post by Aph)
My heart: SNP: 51, green: 20, plaid: 10, UKIP: 1 LD: 30

my head: SNP: 49, green: 1/2, plaid: 3, UKIP: 2, LD: 20
Plaid 10?!?!?! Will the last person left in Wales please turn out the lights?

You're optimistic if you think the Greens will increase their seat total.

UKIP will probably win 4 or 5: Clacton, Thanet South, Thurrock and a shock seat or two.
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Aph
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#4190
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#4190
(Original post by Saracen's Fez)
Plaid 10?!?!?! Will the last person left in Wales please turn out the lights?

You're optimistic if you think the Greens will increase their seat total.

UKIP will probably win 4 or 5: Clacton, Thanet South, Thurrock and a shock seat or two.
I'd like a plaid 10 yes.

maybe. I still have hope for Bristol west though... But I do thing that the greens will gain in terms of %age of the vote.

i recon reckless will stay, I still can't see Thanet voting purple.
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PetrosAC
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#4191
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(Original post by Aph)
I'd like a plaid 10 yes.

maybe. I still have hope for Bristol west though... But I do thing that the greens will gain in terms of %age of the vote.

i recon reckless will stay, I still can't see Thanet voting purple.
I think Carswell will keep his seat, Reckless will lose his, and Farage will take Thanet South. People will vote for the name rather than the party.

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Saracen's Fez
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#4192
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#4192
(Original post by Aph)
I'd like a plaid 10 yes.

maybe. I still have hope for Bristol west though... But I do thing that the greens will gain in terms of %age of the vote.

i recon reckless will stay, I still can't see Thanet voting purple.
Why do you want Plaid 10? Surely even for you Wales would be better off voting Green?

Tories are polling a way ahead of UKIP in Rochester - that would be one of the shocks.
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Airmed
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#4193
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#4193
Tactical voting is the way forward for Thursday. Not when however you can taste sleeping tablets on your mouth.
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Aph
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#4194
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#4194
(Original post by PetrosAC)
I think Carswell will keep his seat, Reckless will lose his, and Farage will take Thanet South. People will vote for the name rather than the party.

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People in Thanet who u would vote labour seem to be voting Tory to keep farage out.
(Original post by Saracen's Fez)
Why do you want Plaid 10? Surely even for you Wales would be better off voting Green?

Tories are polling a way ahead of UKIP in Rochester - that would be one of the shocks.
Oh I would, but I think plaid has more traction in Wales unfortunately.

wait who's carswell and who's reckless?
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Saracen's Fez
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#4195
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#4195
(Original post by Aph)
People in Thanet who u would vote labour seem to be voting Tory to keep farage out.

Oh I would, but I think plaid has more traction in Wales unfortunately.

wait who's carswell and who's reckless?
Carswell is in Clacton, Reckless in Rochester. Carswell is the only UKIP candidate all-but-guaranteed to be elected, Farage probably will, and Reckless is unlikely to be.
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Aph
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#4196
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(Original post by Saracen's Fez)
Carswell is in Clacton, Reckless in Rochester. Carswell is the only UKIP candidate all-but-guaranteed to be elected, Farage probably will, and Reckless is unlikely to be.
Carswell was elected first right?
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username1524603
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#4197
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#4197
As much as I dislike her, I want Natalie Bennett and Nigel Farage to both win seats in Parliament. I cannot support a system where two parties could both poll above the Liberal Democrats but both have their leaders lose in their bids to become MPs. For the sake of representing the millions of voters they have the leader, or a number of MPs to reflect their voting share, must be elected.
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Saracen's Fez
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#4198
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#4198
(Original post by Aph)
Carswell was elected first right?
Yes.
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Aph
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#4199
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#4199
(Original post by Saracen's Fez)
Yes.
Thought that was reckless.
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InnerTemple
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#4200
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(Original post by Saracen's Fez)
Carswell is in Clacton, Reckless in Rochester. Carswell is the only UKIP candidate all-but-guaranteed to be elected, Farage probably will, and Reckless is unlikely to be.
Aker in Thurrock seems to be doing well.

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