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    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    It also means "yeah, this isn't happening"

    There are only three sorts of people who would bet on that: those with insider info; the crazy; and those putting money on for the hell of it.
    And 4) those who believe that their reasoning process is better than the bookie's. Bookies tend to have pretty close to reasonable odds - they would go out of business otherwise, especially in the day of easy comparison between pricing driving down edges.

    People talked about how the Leicester title win 'destroyed the bookies'. Pretty confident they had a good year because of it.
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    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    It also means "yeah, this isn't happening"

    There are only three sorts of people who would bet on that: those with insider info; the crazy; and those putting money on for the hell of it.
    Or with odds like that, Leicester City fans.
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    (Original post by RayApparently)
    I'd have thought Remain would do better on the online polls - due to the demographics.
    Other way around. Online polls tend to show a tie (speculated to be because online polls contain a sample which must register and may be more politically passionate) whereas telephone polls have hefty leads for remain (no idea why).

    Given that telephone polls at least averaged a Tory lead in 2015 even if the amplitude was wrong, i'm tending to back them even if my vote is probably to leave.
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    (Original post by TheDefiniteArticle)
    I think the best way to gauge the aggregation of polling is to look at bookies.
    The problem with this view is that it depends on the analysts who make the odds having a clue about politics and being able to recognise which polls should be included in their sample. It seems that in 2015 they basically had their odds based on a poll of polls when the reality was that online polls were tending to show Labour leads (we now know pollsters were also weighting to herd when anomalous Tory leads were identified) while telephone pollsters had Tory leads even if the amplitude was wrong. The bookies never bothered to perform that analysis from what i can see.

    That said i did watch a prgramme once which suggested that the statistical way to make money from the bookies was simply to back the favourate (more often than not they get it right the argument was).
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    (Original post by TheDefiniteArticle)
    I think the best way to gauge the aggregation of polling is to look at bookies.
    That's what I do.
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    (Original post by mobbsy91)
    When have you stopped being cynical?
    I didn't even know I had stopped...
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    (Original post by meenu89)
    I didn't even know I had stopped...
    Well, saying that you trusted a user...
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    (Original post by TheDefiniteArticle)
    And 4) those who believe that their reasoning process is better than the bookie's. Bookies tend to have pretty close to reasonable odds - they would go out of business otherwise, especially in the day of easy comparison between pricing driving down edges.

    People talked about how the Leicester title win 'destroyed the bookies'. Pretty confident they had a good year because of it.
    The bookie only loses when the favourite wins.

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    (Original post by Rakas21)
    The problem with this view is that it depends on the analysts who make the odds having a clue about politics and being able to recognise which polls should be included in their sample. It seems that in 2015 they basically had their odds based on a poll of polls when the reality was that online polls were tending to show Labour leads (we now know pollsters were also weighting to herd when anomalous Tory leads were identified) while telephone pollsters had Tory leads even if the amplitude was wrong. The bookies never bothered to perform that analysis from what i can see.

    That said i did watch a prgramme once which suggested that the statistical way to make money from the bookies was simply to back the favourate (more often than not they get it right the argument was).
    Meh, I think you're likely oversimplifying. Election betting is quite a large industry now, and bookies are essentially putting their money where their mouth is, so I'm inclined to accept their analysis over any pollster or anything. That doesn't mean that at any given point, the outcome they have down as most likely will happen, but rather, they likely have roughly the correct distribution of probabilities in mind.

    (Original post by Lime-man)
    The bookie only loses when the favourite wins.

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    Yeah, that would be what I'd guess.
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    (Original post by RayApparently)
    I'd have thought Remain would do better on the online polls - due to the demographics.
    You've got your demographics wrong, contrary to popular thought online polling tends to have a socially conservative bias, phone polling a liberal bias. The biases are the opposite of what you would expect.

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    My concern with the referendum is that people will not bother to vote in because they think in is guaranteed.

    If we had a pre-referendum referendum it would help... or conpulsory voting

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    (Original post by Aph)
    My concern with the referendum is that people will not bother to vote in because they think in is guaranteed.

    If we had a pre-referendum referendum it would help... or conpulsory voting

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    The first suggestion makes no sense, the latter doesn't work.

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    http://order-order.com/2016/05/26/se...real-red-line/
    http://www.hsj.co.uk/topics/workforc...ontentID=15303

    Interesting.

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    (Original post by joecphillips)
    Imagine how great brexit will be combined with a trump presidency.
    *Sanders.

    Not going to happen though.
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    (Original post by cranbrook_aspie)
    *Sanders.

    Not going to happen though.
    According to polls sanders is the only candidate that can beat trump due to his support from conservative voters.

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    (Original post by Lime-man)
    According to polls sanders is the only candidate that can beat trump due to his support from conservative voters.

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    Sanders won't get the nomination though. I reckon it'll be close but Clinton will win it in the end. I think that most Sanders voters will hold their noses and vote for her over Trump, and then in the actual general campaign she'll start to target the moderate Republican voters who might be turned off by some of Trump's more extreme statements, and that will be what will win it for her.
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    (Original post by cranbrook_aspie)
    Sanders won't get the nomination though. I reckon it'll be close but Clinton will win it in the end. I think that most Sanders voters will hold their noses and vote for her over Trump, and then in the actual general campaign she'll start to target the moderate Republican voters who might be turned off by some of Trump's more extreme statements, and that will be what will win it for her.
    Doubt thats the case, in the head to heads clinton loses to trump by quite a large margin 9 points i think it was.

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    (Original post by Lime-man)
    Doubt thats the case, in the head to heads clinton loses to trump by quite a large margin 9 points i think it was.

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    It's 5 months before the election and the real campaign hasn't started in earnest yet. All Clinton needs to do is focus on stuff like Trump asking people if his daughter was hot or on the unworkability of a lot of what he's proposing and she's golden.
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    (Original post by cranbrook_aspie)
    It's 7 months before the election and the real campaign hasn't started in earnest yet. All Clinton needs to do is focus on stuff like Trump asking people if his daughter was hot or on the unworkability of a lot of what he's proposing and she's golden.
    It's barely 5 months away...
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    (Original post by cranbrook_aspie)
    It's 5 months before the election and the real campaign hasn't started in earnest yet. All Clinton needs to do is focus on stuff like Trump asking people if his daughter was hot or on the unworkability of a lot of what he's proposing and she's golden.
    Yes because Clinton doesn't have a dirty history that trump can use
 
 
 
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