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    If a leader is elected now who doesn't have the confidence of the PLP in a few years time you can bet that Tristram Hunt, Dan Jarvis, Rachel Reeves, Gloria de Piero and perhaps Keir Starmer or Chuka Ummuna will be ready to pounce.
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    (Original post by St. Brynjar)
    If a leader is elected now who doesn't have the confidence of the PLP in a few years time you can bet that Tristram Hunt, Dan Jarvis, Rachel Reeves, Gloria de Piero and perhaps Keir Starmer or Chuka Ummuna will be ready to pounce.
    Only because they think they can stay for 2025. I don't for a second believe that Chucka resigned for said reasons, he tested the water, realized that 99 seats is a task unlikely to be complete in 2020 and so will take over once Burnham has got you all half way there.

    Chucka could get my vote, Keir is somebody worthy or my respect, talks well but I don't know how his economic views are.. These ultimately dictate whether I'll give my time to listen to the rest of them.
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    Labour cant win in england if people think a labour victory will bring the SNP to power

    And Labour cant win in england if its goes to the left to beat the SNP in scotland
    So catch 22
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    (Original post by Rakas21)
    Only because they think they can stay for 2025. I don't for a second believe that Chucka resigned for said reasons, he tested the water, realized that 99 seats is a task unlikely to be complete in 2020 and so will take over once Burnham has got you all half way there.

    Chucka could get my vote, Keir is somebody worthy or my respect, talks well but I don't know how his economic views are.. These ultimately dictate whether I'll give my time to listen to the rest of them.
    I think it was more of an agreement with Kendall - only one of them could win the leadership and he thought that he'd have a better chance in a few years time rather than try to beat Burnham now. I don't think for a second that the leader elected now will be in power in 2020.
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    (Original post by James222)
    Labour cant win in england if people think a labour victory will bring the SNP to power

    And Labour cant win in england if its goes to the left to beat the SNP in scotland
    So catch 22
    so if labour falls into nothingness all it means is that the next left wing party takes over (I.e. The greens) labours spot and UKIP will move to the centre to try and win center-left voters to weaken the cons and we then see a 4-party state of greens, SNP, UKIP & conservatives, with plaid gaining from the labour default and the DUP becoming king-makers in most elections.
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    (Original post by James222)
    Labour cant win in england if people think a labour victory will bring the SNP to power

    And Labour cant win in england if its goes to the left to beat the SNP in scotland
    So catch 22
    I personally think Scotland is more a north-south issue but at any rate I don't think any political party has a clue what to do in Scotland right now beyond target a seat or two.
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    (Original post by Rakas21)
    I personally think Scotland is more a north-south issue but at any rate I don't think any political party has a clue what to do in Scotland right now beyond target a seat or two.
    The SNP are not perfect and have done plenty wrong but they keep framing the debate in terms of us vs them so they keep winning
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    (Original post by Aph)
    so if labour falls into nothingness all it means is that the next left wing party takes over (I.e. The greens) labours spot and UKIP will move to the centre to try and win center-left voters to weaken the cons and we then see a 4-party state of greens, SNP, UKIP & conservatives, with plaid gaining from the labour default and the DUP becoming king-makers in most elections.
    I dont see how a failure of Labour to break into swing seats means some how the greens will end up winning the swing seats from a even lower base.


    If labour needs a 6% swing
    The greens need a 60% swing

    If UKIP moves to centre it will loose votes elsewhere

    I think the 2015 election showed UKIP cant beat the Cons under FPTP
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    (Original post by James222)
    I dont see how a failure of Labour to break into swing seats means some how the greens will end up winning the swing seats from a even lower base.


    If labour needs a 6% swing
    The greens need a 60% swing

    If UKIP moves to centre it will loose votes elsewhere

    I think the 2015 election showed UKIP cant beat the Cons under FPTP
    I was taking about the fall of labour into a deeper darker hole then the are currently in.

    UKIP have two options IMO, replace the lib dems as the anti-EU center party or stay on the fringes and never do much under FPTP. The greens can take power from the left but as long as the cons are big on the right UKIP are bound to fail 2020
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    (Original post by James222)
    I dont see how a failure of Labour to break into swing seats means some how the greens will end up winning the swing seats from a even lower base.


    If labour needs a 6% swing
    The greens need a 60% swing

    If UKIP moves to centre it will loose votes elsewhere

    I think the 2015 election showed UKIP cant beat the Cons under FPTP
    People need to remember that slowly declining labour-Tory totals do not mean that another party will replace them.

    People may have decided they don't much like Labour or the Tories (a large part of that is brand rather than policy though - the Tories do brilliantly in blind policy tests) but the fact that Lib, Ukip and the Greens divide the vote so much means that people clearly don't think there's an adequate replacement yet.
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    (Original post by Rakas21)
    People need to remember that slowly declining labour-Tory totals do not mean that another party will replace them.

    People may have decided they don't much like Labour or the Tories (a large part of that is brand rather than policy though - the Tories do brilliantly in blind policy tests) but the fact that Lib, Ukip and the Greens divide the vote so much means that people clearly don't think there's an adequate replacement yet.
    Rakas... https://voteforpolicies.org.uk/surve.../total-results On a national level out of nearly a million people (1/30 registered voters) the Tories were weakest of the 5 main parties overall...
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    (Original post by Aph)
    I was taking about the fall of labour into a deeper darker hole then the are currently in.

    UKIP have two options IMO, replace the lib dems as the anti-EU center party or stay on the fringes and never do much under FPTP. The greens can take power from the left but as long as the cons are big on the right UKIP are bound to fail 2020
    UKIP rank and file are not the sort of people who want to be part of a centrist party. I was expecting UKIP to at least return 2 MPs and give the tories a bloody nose but the Conservatives managed to a retake lost seat

    (Original post by Rakas21)
    People need to remember that slowly declining labour-Tory totals do not mean that another party will replace them.

    People may have decided they don't much like Labour or the Tories (a large part of that is brand rather than policy though - the Tories do brilliantly in blind policy tests) but the fact that Lib, Ukip and the Greens divide the vote so much means that people clearly don't think there's an adequate replacement yet.
    I think collapse of the Lib Dems helped the Tories because alot of the none of the above voters who normally voted lib dem voted green/ukip which meant in Liberal/Tory Marginals the tories won
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    (Original post by James222)
    UKIP rank and file are not the sort of people who want to be part of a centrist party. I was expecting UKIP to at least return 2 MPs and give the tories a bloody nose but the Conservatives managed to a retake lost seat



    I think collapse of the Lib Dems helped the Tories because alot of the none of the above voters who normally voted lib dem voted green/ukip which meant in Liberal/Tory Marginals the tories won
    I knew they would only get one. And they attract a lot of center-left people too... They just need to be rid of farrage.
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    (Original post by Aph)
    Rakas... https://voteforpolicies.org.uk/surve.../total-results On a national level out of nearly a million people (1/30 registered voters) the Tories were weakest of the 5 main parties overall...
    Those results are unweighted so meaningless (especially when you consider internet usage of old vs young ect..). I was referring to those done by polling companies that produce representative samples.
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    (Original post by Rakas21)
    Those results are unweighted so meaningless (especially when you consider internet usage of old vs young ect..). I was referring to those done by polling companies that produce representative samples.
    I don't suppose you could link me to such polls?
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    (Original post by Aph)
    I knew they would only get one. And they attract a lot of center-left people too... They just need to be rid of farrage.
    No farage keeps the more crazy right wingers like that bogo bogo land guy in check.
    Farage is actually a asset for the party, with out him you see the real face of the party

    What farage says on TV is actually the polished version of the UKIP message
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    (Original post by James222)
    No farage keeps the more crazy right wingers like that bogo bogo land guy in check.
    Farage is actually a asset for the party, with out him you see the real face of the party

    What farage says on TV is actually the polished version of the UKIP message
    UKIP is an ego trip for farrage. He is too devicive for UKIP... If they want to improve they need to ditch him and get someone like carswell in charge
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    (Original post by Aph)
    I don't suppose you could link me to such polls?
    Afraid not.
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    (Original post by Rakas21)
    Afraid not.
    Because they don't exist?
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    (Original post by L'Evil Fish)
    Because they don't exist?
    Because i don't keep the links to polls i read.
 
 
 
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