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    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    Well, populations tend to split when asked to vote, if not I would question the results...
    That's the point.
    • Large victory for remain and it's an "elite stitch up and conspiracy"
    • Small victory for remain and it isn't accepted by brexiters who demand another referendum.
    • Small victory for leave and there's a possibility of the HoC over-ruling the decision.
    • Large leave victory and it's a stitch up again and remainers who didn't vote demand a second referendum.

    If I were in charge is be looking at how politically dangerous all of those situations would be and perhaps entertain the idea of breaking up the country, probably with London, Wales, Scotland and the north staying in and taking the crown dependencies and Gibraltar and the midlands, south and NI leaving the EU with the other British overseas territories.

    Before you have a go like you always do I'm not saying that should happen just it would be one of many solutions I would consider if I thought that a close vote would see hostility and violence on the streets.
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    (Original post by cranbrook_aspie)
    He seemed very negative to me and didn't seem to take the opportunities he was given to actually present a positive case for Leave.



    That's the fault of both campaigns tbh. There's been much too much scaremongering in this debate and not enough actual reasoned debate of the issues.
    Personally I don't understand how anyone could even entertain the idea of leaving.
    I agree that there has been a lot of fear from both sides, everyone claims that they know better then anyone else. Unfortunately the leave side IMO don't have a rational case for leaving just some silly idea of patriotism and immigration is bad. So even if remain put forward a reasoned rational case you would still see fear from leave and at the end of the day fear tends to bear hope.
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    (Original post by Aph)
    Personally I don't understand how anyone could even entertain the idea of leaving.
    I agree that there has been a lot of fear from both sides, everyone claims that they know better then anyone else. Unfortunately the leave side IMO don't have a rational case for leaving just some silly idea of patriotism and immigration is bad. So even if remain put forward a reasoned rational case you would still see fear from leave and at the end of the day fear tends to bear hope.
    How is the immigration argument not a good one? Because people from poor countries who do not have qualifications or skills that we are in short supply of here can come to this country unrestricted, there is more competition for jobs which not only results in more people unemployed in this country, but in skill shortages in the countries that the immigrants are coming from. How is that a good thing?
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    (Original post by Aph)
    That's the point.
    • Large victory for remain and it's an "elite stitch up and conspiracy"
    • Small victory for remain and it isn't accepted by brexiters who demand another referendum.
    • Small victory for leave and there's a possibility of the HoC over-ruling the decision.
    • Large leave victory and it's a stitch up again and remainers who didn't vote demand a second referendum.
    If I were in charge is be looking at how politically dangerous all of those situations would be and perhaps entertain the idea of breaking up the country, probably with London, Wales, Scotland and the north staying in and taking the crown dependencies and Gibraltar and the midlands, south and NI leaving the EU with the other British overseas territories.

    Before you have a go like you always do I'm not saying that should happen just it would be one of many solutions I would consider if I thought that a close vote would see hostility and violence on the streets.
    the HoC would never try to overrule it, they all care about their jobs too much, and the odds of a break up are practically nil, the only place that would go anywhere near considering it would be Scotland, but there still isn't the political will for it, even if we do leave, the idea that Wales or any region of England would leave is simply ludicrous, the only places with any real independence movements are Scotland and NI, and the former is waning.
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    (Original post by cranbrook_aspie)
    How is the immigration argument not a good one? Because people from poor countries who do not have qualifications or skills that we are in short supply of here can come to this country unrestricted, there is more competition for jobs which not only results in more people unemployed in this country, but in skill shortages in the countries that the immigrants are coming from. How is that a good thing?
    To quote Izzard "because humanity!"
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    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    the HoC would never try to overrule it, they all care about their jobs too much, and the odds of a break up are practically nil, the only place that would go anywhere near considering it would be Scotland, but there still isn't the political will for it, even if we do leave, the idea that Wales or any region of England would leave is simply ludicrous, the only places with any real independence movements are Scotland and NI, and the former is waning.
    I think you underestimate colective responsibility. If they all did it they would be at least considering it.
    (Original post by cranbrook_aspie)
    How is the immigration argument not a good one? Because people from poor countries who do not have qualifications or skills that we are in short supply of here can come to this country unrestricted, there is more competition for jobs which not only results in more people unemployed in this country, but in skill shortages in the countries that the immigrants are coming from. How is that a good thing?
    Hang on, you are saying unqualified unskilled immigrants are coming over and taking their skills from the countries they came from.

    They either fill the gaps that we have or do jobs Brits are too entitled to do. And the moment they become a burden on the uk they loose the right to remain.
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    (Original post by Aph)
    That's the point.
    • Large victory for remain and it's an "elite stitch up and conspiracy"
    • Small victory for remain and it isn't accepted by brexiters who demand another referendum.
    • Small victory for leave and there's a possibility of the HoC over-ruling the decision.
    • Large leave victory and it's a stitch up again and remainers who didn't vote demand a second referendum.

    If I were in charge is be looking at how politically dangerous all of those situations would be and perhaps entertain the idea of breaking up the country, probably with London, Wales, Scotland and the north staying in and taking the crown dependencies and Gibraltar and the midlands, south and NI leaving the EU with the other British overseas territories.

    Before you have a go like you always do I'm not saying that should happen just it would be one of many solutions I would consider if I thought that a close vote would see hostility and violence on the streets.
    I don't expect violence on the streets. If we vote to leave I think there might be an increase in abuse towards those who have moved from other EU countries.
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    (Original post by cranbrook_aspie)
    How is the immigration argument not a good one? Because people from poor countries who do not have qualifications or skills that we are in short supply of here can come to this country unrestricted, there is more competition for jobs which not only results in more people unemployed in this country, but in skill shortages in the countries that the immigrants are coming from. How is that a good thing?
    Immigrants, including unskilled ones, make a large net tax contribution, and so any additional unemployment which may be caused (which is unlikely to be more than a negligible amount given current EU immigration rates) can easily be compensated for with a larger state sector and a more generous welfare state.

    Leaving skill shortages isn't something we can sort out by preventing immigration, especially when many other countries are delighted to take skilled immigrants. The only way to sort that out is to help those countries with the process of developing the institutional capacity to produce more skilled workers.

    Furthermore, there's obviously a massive benefit for the immigrants themselves, which cannot be ignored in considering whether immigration is a good thing.
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    (Original post by TheDefiniteArticle)
    Immigrants, including unskilled ones, make a large net tax contribution, and so any additional unemployment which may be caused (which is unlikely to be more than a negligible amount given current EU immigration rates) can easily be compensated for with a larger state sector and a more generous welfare state.

    Leaving skill shortages isn't something we can sort out by preventing immigration, especially when many other countries are delighted to take skilled immigrants. The only way to sort that out is to help those countries with the process of developing the institutional capacity to produce more skilled workers.

    Furthermore, there's obviously a massive benefit for the immigrants themselves, which cannot be ignored in considering whether immigration is a good thing.
    And you pay for a larger public sector by?

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    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    And you pay for a larger public sector by?

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    The increased tax revenues we get through immigration.
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    (Original post by TheDefiniteArticle)
    The increased tax revenues we get through immigration.
    Thats only if we can afford the extra homes, schools, hospitals and transport needed for those extra people with the amount of wxtra tax revenue that they bring in. I think their net contribution was around £2bn a year but i dont think thats enough for over 300,000 homes year just to accommodate them, let alone provide all the other infrastructure that they need.

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    (Original post by Lime-man)
    Thats only if we can afford the extra homes, schools, hospitals and transport needed for those extra people with the amount of wxtra tax revenue that they bring in. I think their net contribution was around £2bn a year but i dont think thats enough for over 300,000 homes year just to accommodate them, let alone provide all the other infrastructure that they need.

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    The net contribution is £2bn/year, aye, but that's quite a significant amount relative to numbers; furthermore, there's no good reason to think that the private sector won't provide homes and transport, and you're also not counting the economic growth benefits. Like, there isn't an economic case to be made for immigrants being a net negative.
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    (Original post by cranbrook_aspie)
    How is the immigration argument not a good one? Because people from poor countries who do not have qualifications or skills that we are in short supply of here can come to this country unrestricted, there is more competition for jobs which not only results in more people unemployed in this country, but in skill shortages in the countries that the immigrants are coming from. How is that a good thing?
    The immigration argument is a stupid one and here's why:

    If you leave the EU, you also leave the Single Market. The Single Market is worth billions and billions to our economy, so we obviously have to negotiate back into it, right?

    So anyway, we negotiate back into the Single Market and everything is all hunky and jolly and life goes on. Wrong.

    If you're part of the single market, you have to also agree to freedom of movement of EU citizens. And we have to negotiate back into the single market. Which means we cannot control EU immigration unless we don't rejoin the single market which would be economic suicide.
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    (Original post by PetrosAC)
    The immigration argument is a stupid one and here's why:

    If you leave the EU, you also leave the Single Market. The Single Market is worth billions and billions to our economy, so we obviously have to negotiate back into it, right?

    So anyway, we negotiate back into the Single Market and everything is all hunky and jolly and life goes on. Wrong.

    If you're part of the single market, you have to also agree to freedom of movement of EU citizens. And we have to negotiate back into the single market. Which means we cannot control EU immigration unless we don't rejoin the single market which would be economic suicide.
    Having a FTA=/=being in the free market, and even if we leave, what is the tariff? Less than the net contribution, I've heard as low as 4bn but short of seeing how they got to that would rather take roughly equal to our contribution. Okay then, what next? Well, what are the tariffs on our US exports? Chinese exports? Commonwealth exports? All those exports that the EU don't touch and are very important to the UK economy? Of the top 10 non EU export markets (worth nearly £100bn) we have EU FTAs with only 2, and as I recall they're worth barely 10pc of that £100bn to us.

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    (Original post by TheDefiniteArticle)
    The increased tax revenues we get through immigration.
    Which simply cannot work. You cannot pay for public sector work by taxing the public sectpr work without 100pc taxation, it's simple mathematics.

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    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    Which simply cannot work. You cannot pay for public sector work by taxing the public sectpr work without 100pc taxation, it's simple mathematics.

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    Where have I said that the immigrants are all going into the public sector? You're making the wrong (and really wrong) assumption of employment being a zero-sum game, when immigration creates new jobs, normally at close to a 1:1 ratio, so job displacement is marginal at best.
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    (Original post by TheDefiniteArticle)
    The net contribution is £2bn/year, aye, but that's quite a significant amount relative to numbers; furthermore, there's no good reason to think that the private sector won't provide homes and transport, and you're also not counting the economic growth benefits. Like, there isn't an economic case to be made for immigrants being a net negative.
    No i agree, however having 300,000+ people entering the uk per year, as a net figure, it is unsustainable. I dont buy thr cultural arguments that people make, but there is a strain on public services and unless we want to create an ever increasing deficit to pay for the infratructure required to house all the people coming over we will need to cut the numbers.

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    (Original post by Lime-man)
    No i agree, however having 300,000+ people entering the uk per year, as a net figure, it is unsustainable. I dont buy thr cultural arguments that people make, but there is a strain on public services and unless we want to create an ever increasing deficit to pay for the infratructure required to house all the people coming over we will need to cut the numbers.

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    I don't see how it's unsustainable. All that's happening is the UK's population is growing. If this is unsustainable then any country with a larger population also ought to be in an unsustainable situation (unless you're talking about physical land mass, which is hundreds of years at 300k/year from being a problem).
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    (Original post by TheDefiniteArticle)
    I don't see how it's unsustainable. All that's happening is the UK's population is growing. If this is unsustainable then any country with a larger population also ought to be in an unsustainable situation (unless you're talking about physical land mass, which is hundreds of years at 300k/year from being a problem).
    Unless we can provide the infrastructure for over 300,000 people every year with the money that they contribute to our economy and treasury then it is unsustainable.

    Its a new city every single year, im not saying that we need to build new cities (we probably should though) but we need to find a sustainable number of people that can come to the UK every year that the private and public sector can accommodate and from that number we decide the limit.

    We need more schools hospitals and homes, we need better transport links and more efficient train lines, and thats before you take into account over 300,000 people coming to the country every year.

    Im really not the type of person who will shout things like "we need to take care of our own first" so im not going to say that. But immigration levels are unsustainable at the moment, and thats plain to see.

    Immigration is a great thing, and i dont believe for a second that we should pull up the draw bridge or turn away refugees or asylum seekers, in fact i dobt believe that they should even be included in immigration figures so i dont want anyone calling me a xenophobe or racist because anyone who knows me will be able to tell you that i am the farthest thing from racism and bigotry.

    We should be building about 300,000 homes a year at least. We should be investing in our infrastructure as best as possible to provide for as many as possible. But it has to be at a sustainable level. If we cant keep up with population growth we only create a larger deficit for ourselves.



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    (Original post by TheDefiniteArticle)
    Immigrants, including unskilled ones, make a large net tax contribution, and so any additional unemployment which may be caused (which is unlikely to be more than a negligible amount given current EU immigration rates) can easily be compensated for with a larger state sector and a more generous welfare state.

    Leaving skill shortages isn't something we can sort out by preventing immigration, especially when many other countries are delighted to take skilled immigrants. The only way to sort that out is to help those countries with the process of developing the institutional capacity to produce more skilled workers.

    Furthermore, there's obviously a massive benefit for the immigrants themselves, which cannot be ignored in considering whether immigration is a good thing.
    Yes, but say post Brexit we only sent the immigrants home that we didn't need. Then, their jobs would be filled by British workers who would be paid the same and therefore make up for the loss of tax revenue caused.


    Agreed, but preventing immigration helps, and in order for the institutional capacity to produce more skilled workers to exist, the countries need as many people as possible to actually train those skilled workers.

    (Original post by PetrosAC)
    The immigration argument is a stupid one and here's why:

    If you leave the EU, you also leave the Single Market. The Single Market is worth billions and billions to our economy, so we obviously have to negotiate back into it, right?

    So anyway, we negotiate back into the Single Market and everything is all hunky and jolly and life goes on. Wrong.

    If you're part of the single market, you have to also agree to freedom of movement of EU citizens. And we have to negotiate back into the single market. Which means we cannot control EU immigration unless we don't rejoin the single market which would be economic suicide.
    We have one of the largest economies in the world. The EU will want us in the single market, and is likely to grant us an exemption to the freedom of movement rule, which is losing its shine for some EU member states anyway given the migrant crisis.
 
 
 
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