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# The Manchester United Thread XX watch

1. (Original post by trapking)
Prove that the P(score) = 1 for -1< score <1 from first principles.

(5 marks)
P(A) + P(A') = 1

Although the statement isn't logically necessary, I suspect you meant "for -1 < score <= 1" (or indeed 0 <= score <= 1).
2. (Original post by TheDefiniteArticle)
P(A) + P(A')= 1

Although the statement isn't logically necessary, I suspect you meant "for -1 < score <= 1" (or indeed 0 <= score <= 1).

You're indeed correct
3. We get it, you do math.
4. (Original post by xKay)
We get it, you do math.
Math
5. math
6. (Original post by xKay)
We get it, you do math.
Not sure either of us do tbh, I know I certainly don't.

Also

math [3]
7. I'm not liking the pessimism in this thread. More like;

De Gea
Cafu Sergio Ramos Bailly Bale
Busquets Verratti Pogba
Ronaldo Messi Charlton
Griezmann Mkhi Mata
Reus Aubameyang Neymar
Martial Rashford Dong Fanghzou.

Starting XI anyway

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8. Man said dong
9. (Original post by Dirtybit)
Man said dong
Man United legend. Easily top 3 best Asians to play for United.

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10. (Original post by That Bearded Man)
Man United legend. Easily top 3 best Asians to play for United.

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Thoughts on ever changing your signature after 10 years?
11. (Original post by Dirtybit)
Thoughts on ever changing your signature after 10 years?
I have. See the Jeremy Corbyn quote

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12. (Original post by TheDefiniteArticle)
Strikers. Miss. Chances. There is no striker in the world for which P(score) = 1 for literally any chance. And when P(x) < 1, you will naturally get some unlucky periods.
How many strikers miss 3 sitters a game, on multiple occasions.

A striker of his calibre should have statically put away them chances.
13. (Original post by Rk2k14)
How many strikers miss 3 sitters a game, on multiple occasions.

A striker of his calibre should have statically put away them chances.
Top quality strikers don't put chances away in fashion lower quality ones don't. It's a blend of putting chances away in combination with chance creation that makes a top striker. Zlatan isn't an never has been a good finisher, but he has better chance creation that his peers. If you go through most of Europe's top strikers the majority survive by creating lots of chances which they finish at unimpressive rates. PL wise someone like Costa is an exception to this, a poor chance creator with excellent finishing.

Zlatan has been on a really poor run of finishing, after a really good one start of the season, but his ability to find those chances hasn't changed much.

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14. (Original post by Fizzel)
Top quality strikers don't put chances away in fashion lower quality ones don't. It's a blend of putting chances away in combination with chance creation that makes a top striker. Zlatan isn't an never has been a good finisher, but he has better chance creation that his peers. If you go through most of Europe's top strikers the majority survive by creating lots of chances which they finish at unimpressive rates. PL wise someone like Costa is an exception to this, a poor chance creator with excellent finishing.

Zlatan has been on a really poor run of finishing, after a really good one start of the season, but his ability to find those chances hasn't changed much.

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Pretty much this.

Like you said, top strikers create more chances for themselves and have a higher tendency to score high quality goals from positions that lesser strikers wouldn't.

Agree on chance conversion - to be world class you need to be somebody like Suarez who is great at both creation and finishing, however it certainly wasn't always the case. The season where we almost won the title particularly developed his finishing but - more significantly - his ability to create chances too.

You look at Liverpool against Watford - they had the highest amount of shots on target since records began yet "only" scored 6 in a game where with better finishing/luck it would've easily been double figures.
15. Costa does seem like an enigma to me. he's the kind of guy who would do nothing for 70mins and the first sight he's through on goal he scores. it'll even hit the keeper and it still goes in. serious juju in play with that guy. must be all the Nigerian chelsea fans.

Also tbh ibra was never great at finishing, in the CL hr basically did what higuain or cavani did in big games, hes a big reason why psg didnt make it past the quarters under blanc
16. (Original post by Lúcio)
Agree on chance conversion - to be world class you need to be somebody like Suarez who is great at both creation and finishing, however it certainly wasn't always the case. The season where we almost won the title particularly developed his finishing but - more significantly - his ability to create chances too.
Only things I would say is Suarez' quality isn't from his finishing it's from his creation numbers and his value is in his creation because he not only creates chances for himself but he creates for his team mates. With Sturridge and Neymar he has formed partnership that put up just stupid numbers. However his actual finishing isn't that special, in fact he's another Zlatan in the sense his finishing of chances through his career has basically stay dead on with his finishing numbers, he doesn't really have the good team effect. He's the same quality of finisher that he's always been. Suarez is a chance creation monster.

That pretty much is the problem with finishing. Without stats, or better yet, having someone smarter/sadder trawl through them, it's so heavily perception based by stand out moments.

Take Higiuan for example. Has a rep as a bottler. Over his career he's basically split between two people, non-Real and Real. Neither of those players have poor finishers. Post Real he's been average but putting up massive numbers, a Zlatan, and at Real he was an absolute hitman. Don't think those facts level with people's imagine of him seemingly missing damn near every chance he had at WC10'.

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17. Saw a stat over summer Ibra's NPG XG for PSG was 118 goals for 110xg. That is against lower quality keepers in the hottest streak of his career. Guy is not a finisher. Fact is few players would put up 110xg, PSG or otherwise, even top calibre guys.

Ideally you want a creation monster who finishers at a good, (read very slightly better) than most. But if you want long term performance, the creation numbers tend to be more dependable.

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18. What is it with Fizzel and Ibra stats these days
19. (Original post by Dirtybit)
What is it with Fizzel and Ibra stats these days
Because Zlatan is the focal point of our attack. People's view of our attack at the moment needs to levelled with the fact, we're not a bad attacking side, Zlatan hasn't become any worse at finishing, and yet, we aren't scoring goals. Which seems to be difficult.
20. Pretty sure when suarez first came to the league he was basically hazard(as in great at everything other than finishing) and ****ed you over in multiple matches e.g. arsenal 2-1 loss in 11/12.

Don't you mean wc14 too for higuain?

Also I think an issue is him is big games. although he was never first choice under mourinho and has been at weak clubs since. maybe he could break that duck at juve and change perceptions(like zlatan did after moving to milan) but until then he's going to keep the bottler tag. unless he moves to england.

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