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    (Original post by Bornblue)
    Oh dear, Corbyn- the Eurosceptic is doing a q and a tonight.

    First question will be along the lines of 'you'd always opposed it, why the sudden change?'

    Also predict someone will ask why he wants to be part of an organisation that has imposed such brutal austerity on Greece.

    Expect the party line and standard answer to be '........... in a reformed European Union'
    It's a Q&A from young people, so I expect it won't go too badly for him. It's also only Faisal Islam who is hardly the most competent of interviewers, I doubt he will be any better at controlling the debate and pressing him when he doesn't say the right thing or the audience asks the wrong questions.

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    Yougov belive that there is a 4% remain in the underlying distribution so anything over 54% turnout should see us stay.
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    (Original post by Aph)
    Yougov belive that there is a 4% remain in the underlying distribution so anything over 54% turnout should see us stay.
    That is factored into the chart I believe

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    I have now been mailed from both campaigns, it comes as no surprise that Leave put forwards 8 arguments to leave, and gave quotes from five remainers neutralising the remain argument, as well as listing TNCs that said they will stay.

    Remain, on the other hand, had nothing to say other than "you should vote to leave coz Farage"

    Sums up the campaigns methinks

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    What a surprise, daily politics had a Norwegian on to talk about the 1994, referendum, and what did they say? We were told we would lose 100,000 jobs, the EU would have nothing to do with us, we would all lose thousands, etc etc. Funniily enough they were told pretty much the exact same as were being told, and unsurprisingly it's all been a load of tosh

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    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    I have now been mailed from both campaigns, it comes as no surprise that Leave put forwards 8 arguments to leave, and gave quotes from five remainers neutralising the remain argument, as well as listing TNCs that said they will stay.

    Remain, on the other hand, had nothing to say other than "you should vote to leave coz Farage"

    Sums up the campaigns methinks

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    Leave trying to confuse people by presenting lots of different arguments to hide the fact that every single one is incoherent doesn't stand up to scrutiny? 'Lol Farage' is a better argument than all the Leave arguments combined.
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    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    What a surprise, daily politics had a Norwegian on to talk about the 1994, referendum, and what did they say? We were told we would lose 100,000 jobs, the EU would have nothing to do with us, we would all lose thousands, etc etc. Funniily enough they were told pretty much the exact same as were being told, and unsurprisingly it's all been a load of tosh

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    Norway has huge amounts of natural reserves which pumps their economy, we don't.
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    (Original post by TheDefiniteArticle)
    Leave trying to confuse people by presenting lots of different arguments to hide the fact that every single one is incoherent doesn't stand up to scrutiny? 'Lol Farage' is a better argument than all the Leave arguments combined.
    What strikes me most is how prepared the leave camp are to jump off a cliff and simply hope for the best.

    Still now, three days before the referendum, the leave campaign have not proposed a single viable alternative. Not one. Not a single one. Diddly squat. Nothing.

    They're willing to gamble with peoples jobs and incomes simply because they want a fake feeling of 'sovereignty'.

    Every single time an expert or a business warns us of Brexit they play the scaremongering card. It also must be scaremongering when you warn people of drink driving or driving without a seatbelt. Because apparently pointing out very real risks of a reckless act is now scaremongering.


    And then you have the aggressive 'blame immigrants' nature of the leave campaign. The same rhetoric that lead to an MP being murdered.
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    (Original post by Bornblue)
    Norway has huge amounts of natural reserves which pumps their economy, we don't.
    And we never really had a reliance on such things, you seem to be suggesting that if we leave suddenly all other aspects of our economy will cease up and collapse. Were the Norwegians told there would be a surge in unemployment? Yes. Was there? No. Were they told the EU would have nothing to do with them? Yes. Did it hold? No. Were they told the welfare state would collapse? Yes. Did it? No.

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    (Original post by Bornblue)
    Norway has huge amounts of natural reserves which pumps their economy, we don't.
    And last time I checked when we didn't join the euro we also didn't have a massive reserve of natural resources, and yet somehow managed to not join the euro without the economy collapsing and unemployment surging.

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    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    That is factored into the chart I believe

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    Not really, because the y-axis is the underlying distribution so if yougov ever are right and the underlying distribution is 4% to remain the moment we get 54% turnout it should be a dead heat.
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    (Original post by Bornblue)
    What strikes me most is how prepared the leave camp are to jump off a cliff and simply hope for the best.

    Still now, three days before the referendum, the leave campaign have not proposed a single viable alternative. Not one. Not a single one. Diddly squat. Nothing.

    They're willing to gamble with peoples jobs and incomes simply because they want a fake feeling of 'sovereignty'.

    Every single time an expert or a business warns us of Brexit they play the scaremongering card. It also must be scaremongering when you warn people of drink driving or driving without a seatbelt. Because apparently pointing out very real risks of a reckless act is now scaremongering.

    And then you have the aggressive 'blame immigrants' nature of the leave campaign. The same rhetoric that lead to an MP being murdered.
    I don't really think Leave lacking a detailed manifesto is a problem given that they have little power to enforce it. The Prime Minister is for Remain, his replacement until the leadership contest is over is for Remain. There's very little that leave can do to guarantee their plan would be enacted.
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    (Original post by Rakas21)
    I don't really think Leave lacking a detailed manifesto is a problem given that they have little power to enforce it. The Prime Minister is for Remain, his replacement until the leadership contest is over is for Remain. There's very little that leave can do to guarantee their plan would be enacted.
    Nobody is asking Leave to predict what will happen - they're asking Leave to provide a coherent, realistic notion of an option which isn't truly awful, because it seems there isn't one.
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    (Original post by TheDefiniteArticle)
    Nobody is asking Leave to predict what will happen - they're asking Leave to provide a coherent, realistic notion of an option which isn't truly awful, because it seems there isn't one.
    Well the clear reality of what will happen is that the PM will view the vote to leave as primarily just that and secondarily to reduce EU immigration while securing access to the single market. So that's essentially what likely happens..

    The Leave campaign clearly can't say that the UK will still accept significant immigration for the single market.. but that is what will happen and its why you guys should have less fear.
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    (Original post by Rakas21)
    Well the clear reality of what will happen is that the PM will view the vote to leave as primarily just that and secondarily to reduce EU immigration while securing access to the single market. So that's essentially what likely happens..

    The Leave campaign clearly can't say that the UK will still accept significant immigration for the single market.. but that is what will happen and its why you guys should have less fear.
    If they can't say what's going to happen for fear of losing support, do you not feel it's entirely legitimate for the Remain campaign to try and force them to reveal their obfuscation?

    Also, even in a free movement deal, the UK suffers economically.
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    (Original post by TheDefiniteArticle)
    If they can't say what's going to happen for fear of losing support, do you not feel it's entirely legitimate for the Remain campaign to try and force them to reveal their obfuscation?

    Also, even in a free movement deal, the UK suffers economically.
    Sure and personally i think a more coherent Leave campaign should have simply argued for EFTA which gets us out the door and leaves the road open to further exit in the future but that's not how its gone down given the current negative mood and immigration obsession.

    Yes however both the treasury and IMF predict that the vast majority of the negative effect will take place in the short term primarily as a result of unstable negotiations. In the long run growth is only slightly lower each year.
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    (Original post by Rakas21)
    Sure and personally i think a more coherent Leave campaign should have simply argued for EFTA which gets us out the door and leaves the road open to further exit in the future but that's not how its gone down given the current negative mood and immigration obsession.

    Yes however both the treasury and IMF predict that the vast majority of the negative effect will take place in the short term primarily as a result of unstable negotiations. In the long run growth is only slightly lower each year.
    Yes, but it's pretty clear in this situation that, even taking the immigration argument into account, leave performs worse than remain on pretty much any metric.
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    (Original post by Rakas21)
    I don't really think Leave lacking a detailed manifesto is a problem given that they have little power to enforce it. The Prime Minister is for Remain, his replacement until the leadership contest is over is for Remain. There's very little that leave can do to guarantee their plan would be enacted.
    All the more reason to provide the PM with a blueprint. Otherwise he's being forced to knowingly drive us off a cliff.
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    (Original post by Rakas21)
    Sure and personally i think a more coherent Leave campaign should have simply argued for EFTA which gets us out the door and leaves the road open to further exit in the future but that's not how its gone down given the current negative mood and immigration obsession.

    Yes however both the treasury and IMF predict that the vast majority of the negative effect will take place in the short term primarily as a result of unstable negotiations. In the long run growth is only slightly lower each year.
    Or even higher, depending on what figures you plug into the early years and the overall effect. If we take one of the more extreme pairings we get PwC 2% lower growth and the worst the treasury says with a 1 year recovery for the recession we're looking at 2.5% average growth remaining, 3.3% leaving

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